Tag Archives: Uzbekistan

Uzbek President outmaneuvers Karimov’s heir

JUNE 12 2017 (The Bulletin) — Uzbekistan’s vicious political scene has just spat out another top dog. Rustam Azimov, the former collective farm engineer has been a fixture at the top of the Uzbek political spectrum since 1998, when he was handpicked by former president Islam Karimov, Uzbek leader from 1991 until his death in September, to head the economy ministry. Considered one of Karimov’s favourites, Azimov had been thought by many as the most likely person to succeed his patron.

In January 2008, in a diplomatic note later leaked by Wikileaks, the US ambassador to Uzbekistan at the time Richard Norland wrote that Azimov was being groomed as a successor.

“Azimov’s star is rising. Being appointed first among deputy ministers will only fuel additional speculation that Azimov may eventually succeed Karimov,” he wrote.

Media reports from 2012, cited sources within the Uzbek government as saying that Karimov was now openly talking up Azimov as his successor.

Instead, his rival Shavkat Mirziyoyev has outmanoeuvred him and Azimov now finds himself in the lowly position of heading the Export- Import Insurance company. His political ambitions, like that of Karimov’s daughter Gulnara, who has been under house arrest since 2014, are surely over.

It has been a long-running rivalry between Azimov and Mirziyoyev. In May 2008, Norland wrote that the rivalry had become so bad that the Uzbek security services had invented information to present a more united front.

“Due to rumours that rivalries persist between Prime Minister Mirziyayev (sic) and First Deputy Prime Minister Rustam Azimov, the NSS (the Uzbek security service) also had fabricated information that both individuals had reached a rapprochement prompted by the burgeoning friendship between their wives,” he wrote.

Considered a smooth operator with a calmer temperament than the sometimes abrasive Mirziyoyev, Azimov also had plenty of experience dealing with foreign companies, often negotiating their entry into Uzbekistan on behalf of Karimov.

Prior to taking over as economy minister in 1998, Azimov was head of the National Bank for Foreign Economic Activity. Now, aged only 56, as head of the nonentity that is the Export- Import Insurance company, he will have plenty of time to rue opportunities missed in the battle to succeed Karimov.

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(News report from Issue No. 332, published on June 12 2017)

Comment: Authority figures and democracy

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EDINBURGH, JUNE 12 2017 (The Bulletin) — This past week, politics in Britain have been overshadowed by the election meltdown and loss of authority of the British PM, Theresa May. She went from having a 20 point lead in opinion polls only two months ago to a single digit lead over Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, on election day. She won, but was returned a much diminished figure.

This is a stark contrast to the strongmen that rule Central Asia, where the democratic touch is so light. That doesn’t mean, though, that there isn’t plenty of political intrigue to enjoy and saviour in the region.

And this week has given us the story of how Shavkat Mirziyoyev has undone one of his key rivals for power, former economy minister Rustam Azimov. Once a potential Second President of Uzbekistan, he now finds himself heading up an entity called the Export-Import Bank. A story of power-plays and, possibly, betrayal.

There has been an apparent growth in grassroots movements in Uzbekistan. Our new correspondent reports from Tashkent on what has been described as the biggest protest in the country for 12 years. It’s great reporting on a very important story.

In Georgia and Azerbaijan the case of the abducted journalist continues to cause the authorities discomfort, as does the reminder that Georgia’s Pankisi Gorge is still an IS recruitment area.

On the business front, we report on China’s first foray into Kazakhstan’s banking sector and on olive oil production in Georgia.

Investment boosts for Uzbek car making

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TASHKENT, JUNE 5 2017 (The Bulletin) — Looking to give the Uzbek car-making sector a boost, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev unveiled a series of investments and tax cuts specifically aimed at boosting production and job numbers.

The uzdaily.uz website reported that on June 1, Mr Mirziyoyev had signed into law an investment scheme worth $800m for Uzavtosanoat. It reported that it was hoped that production would jump by 300% and the number of people employ would also surge accordingly.

The Uzbek auto sector has been heavily hit by a collapse in the Russian car market. Data released in April showed that the number of cars produced in Uzbekistan had halved in 2016 to around 92,000. This year, though, there are signs that the the Uzbek car making sector is beginning to rebound.

French carmaker PSA, which owns the Peugeot and Citron brands, has signed a deal to assemble 16,000 cars in Uzbekistan.

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(News report from Issue No. 332, published on June 12 2017)

Currencies: Kyrgyzstan’s som

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JUNE 12 2017 (The Bulletin) — The Kyrgyz som dropped another 0.3% over the week, adding to a general downward trend since the end of April when it briefly threatened to break through the lower 67/$1 barrier.

On April 27, the Kyrgyz som hit 67.13/$1, a level not seen since the currency devaluation of 2015/16. Since then the som has fallen back to a level that analysts have said is a more natural range of between 68 and 69 per $1. It is now trading at 1.25% higher than at the start of the year.

Elsewhere, the Uzbek soum continued its slow downward trajectory and the Kazakh tenge moved closer to falling through the 316/$1 barrier, a level not seen since the beginning of May. It has generally tracked down with oil.

Uzbekistan’s President Mirziyoyev sacks rival Azimov as deputy PM

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TASHKENT, JUNE 6 2017 (The Bulletin) — Uzbek president Shavkat Mirziyoyev sacked deputy PM Rustam Azimov from his government, showing his ruthlessness in undermining potential rivals .

Mr Azimov had at one time been talked of as a potential successor for Islam Karimov, who ruled Uzbekistan since independence from the Soviet Union until his death in September 2016. His ambitions were undone, however, by the rise of Mr Mirziyoyev who had been PM under Karimov. Mr Azimov had been economy minister but was downgraded to foreign investment minister in December.

Local media reported, quoting government sources, that Azimov would now head the Export-Import Insurance company, a major demotion. He was to be replaced by as deputy PM by the relatively unknown deputy finance minister Jamshid Kuchkarov.

Immediately after the death of Karimov, Azimov had been considered one of the three most powerful people in Uzbekistan, alongside Mr Mirziyoyev and security chief Rustam Inoyatov. His demotion marks a victory for Mr Mirziyoyev who was always wary of his rival.

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(News report from Issue No. 332, published on June 12 2017)

India and Pakistan join Central Asia-focused SCO

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ALMATY, JUNE 9 2017 (The Bulletin) — India and Pakistan joined the Russia and China led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), pushing the military-economic group beyond Central Asia for the first time.

The SCO, set up in 2001 after Uzbekistan joined what had been called the Shanghai Five, now covers 3.1b people — nearly half the world’s population.

For Central Asia, the geographic focus of the SCO, the ascension of India and Pakistan confirms it as a fulcrum of world diplomacy and also pulls South Asia tighter into its economic sphere.

After its annual 2-day summit meeting in Astana, the SCO said: “The heads of state highlighted the historical significance of the SCO’s enlargement. They believe that granting full SCO membership to India and Pakistan at the current meeting of the SCO Heads of State Council will facilitate the further development and enhance the potential of the SCO.”

The success of the SCO has crept up on Western governments. It has largely been built on China’s drive into Central Asia.

Russia, through its Soviet legacy, has more access points into Central Asia than China and has largely used the SCO as a meeting place and for developing military ties. China, though, has used the SCO to dispense everything from cheap credit to infrastructure deals and military know- how and sees it as a vital cog in its ‘One Belt. One Road’ strategy focused on developing trade corridors to Europe.

Sheng Shiliang, a researcher at the Xinhua Center for World Affairs Studies, told Chinese media that SCO expansion was important to China.

“The SCO has never been just a security group from the beginning. The Belt and Road Initiative offers a timely and convenient framework for the SCO members to facilitate connectivity and ultimately, achieve free flows of goods, capital, service and technology,” he said.

For India and Pakistan, joining the SCO will increase their presence in Central Asia. Over the past five years, India has been trying to catch up with China’s progress in the region. It wants to develop markets and buy up energy projects.

Pakistan has developed links mainly through the TAPI gas pipeline, which will run from Turkmenistan and also through the CASA-1000 electricity scheme which will send power generated by hydropower stations in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

The only country in Central Asia that is not a member of the SCO is Turkmenistan, which has traditionally taken a more isolationist neutral stance to international organisations.

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(News report from Issue No. 332, published on June 12 2017)

UN Sec-Gen visits

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JUNE 7 2017 (The Bulletin) — UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres started a tour of Central Asia by flying into Kazakhstan. He was due to attend a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organsiation (SCO) in Astana before flying to Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. This is the first visit by a UN Secretary General to Central Asia since 2015.

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(News report from Issue No. 332, published on June 12 2017)

Uzbek Parliament approves new CB chief

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JUNE 6 2017 (The Bulletin) — Uzbekistan’s parliament approved the relatively unknown Mamarizo Nurmuratov as the new Central Bank chairman. He had been chairman of the Senate’s budget and economic reforms committee. His appointment, as a replacement for Faizulla Mullajanov who died after 26 years in the post, highlights the relative junior nature of the Central Bank chief in Uzbekistan.

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(News report from Issue No. 332, published on June 12 2017)

Fibre optic production starts in Uzbekistan

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MAY 30 2017 (The Bulletin) — Uzbekistan plans to start producing fibre optic cables, mainly for domestic use, media reported. Telecompaper.com said that production was planned at 50,000km of cables every year and that Uzbekistan would lay 277,000km of cables by 2021, part of a scheme to expand its the Uzbek broadband network. Pres. Shavkat Mirziyoyev has said he wants to create jobs through infrastructure schemes.

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(News report from Issue No. 331, published on June 5 2017)

Uzbekistan prepares metro rail plan

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MAY 31 2017 (The Bulletin) — Uzbekistan plans to start building a metropolitan rail system around Tashkent, media reported. Reports said that the cost of the $320m project would be split between the government ($185m), the Fund for Reconstruction and Development of Uzbekistan ($20m) and China’s Exim Bank ($115m). Since becoming president in Sept. last year, Shavkat Mirziyoyev has placed major emphasis on infrastructure development.

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(News report from Issue No. 331, published on June 5 2017)