JAN. 23 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Foreign investment in Uzbekistan is again under the spotlight after Russian news agency Regnum quoted the British ambassador in Tashkent, George Edgar, saying that companies were having to quit the country because of various problems with the business environment.
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(News report from Issue No. 216, published on Jan. 28 2015)
>>US says that the vehicles are non-lethal>>
JAN. 23 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The US Defence Department started delivering to Uzbekistan 300 vehicles designed to withstand ambushes and mines, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Central Asia, Daniel Rosenblum, told the Voice of America’s Uzbek language service.
This is controversial because it appears to go beyond a previous deal made between Washington and Tashkent which said that the United States would deliver non-lethal military equipment to Uzbekistan in exchange for help in withdrawing its forces from Afghanistan.
Ambush-resistant vehicles are, technically, non-lethal but these troop carriers can be mounted with machine-guns and are designed to be used during combat operations.
Uzbekistan has a dubious human rights record and activists have complained heavily about the US’ deal with Uzbekistan. Still, realpolitik meant that the US had to turn to Uzbekistan for help in extracting its kit from Afghanistan. Uzbekistan’s Soviet-era railway system is the quickest and safest way out of the country.
In the interview with Voice of America, Mr Rosenblum said Uzbekistan needed the vehicles to fight Islamic extremist groups and also for counter-narcotic operations.
“We consider them (the vehicles) to be non-lethal. They are intended to protect personnel, crews and passengers in areas that there might be explosive devices, mines, so on,” he said.
“Under those circumstances and for the purposes of counterterrorism and counter-narcotics, we thought that it was a legitimate request and decided to fulfil it.”
Technically Mr Rosenblum may be right. In reality, though, the line between so-called lethal and non-lethal equipment is becoming more blurred with this latest deal.
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(News report from Issue No. 216, published on Jan. 28 2015)
JAN. 26 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Students in Uzbekistan are being forced into signing petitions supporting the presidential candidature of Uzbek leader Islam Karimov, the Uzbek arm of the US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported. Mr Karimov has said he is going to stand for another term as president in an election in March.
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(News report from Issue No. 216, published on Jan. 28 2015)
JAN. 23 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The lower house of Uzbekistan’s parliament approved the re-selection of Shavkat Mirziyoyev as an official PM candidate. Mr Mirziyoyev has been PM since 2003 and Uzbek analysts said it was highly likely that he would retain the job after the March presidential election.
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(News report from Issue No. 216, published on Jan. 28 2015)
JAN. 17 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — An anonymous whistle-blower in Norway has alleged corruption at Vimpelcom, a telecoms company a third owned by Norwegian Telenor, media reported. Telenor and Vimpelcom deny the allegations. Uzbekistan’s telecoms sector is already mired in an alleged corruption case.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
>>Presidential election set for March 29 in Uzbekistan>>
JAN. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The clue was in the headline. A pro-government news outlet in Uzbekistan, they are all pro-government, ran a story under the headline: “Incumbent President Islam Karimov’s re-election scheduled”.
Nothing, it seems, could be more certain. Mr Karimov has already ruled over Uzbekistan for 25 years, despite constitutional articles that bans one person from holding the post for more than two consecutive terms.
Few people expect any surprises from this campaign and it appears that it suits the United States, Russia and China to keep the status quo. The only two other candidates cleared to run in the election by the Uzbek Central Election Committee are avowed supporters of Mr Karimov.
Importantly, also, there is little mention of Gulnara Karimova, Mr Karimova’s eldest daughter. She had been talked of as a successor to her father but has fallen from grace over the past 18 months or so. She remains under house arrest and many of her associates are in prison.
Uzbekistan’s up and coming presidential election, set for March 29, will be marked by its trademark lack of any real competition.
A seasoned Uzbekistan watcher also said that Uzbeks are apathetic about the prospect of another Karimov term in office.
“People, you know, are apathetic,” he said. “I don’t expect any surprises.”
Mr Karimov has been in power in Uzbekistan since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. It’s inconceivable that he won’t win March’s election again.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
NEW YORK, JAN. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The radical group IS is recruiting heavily in Central Asia, the influential think tank International Crisis Group (ICG) wrote in a new report, a phenomena that could destabilise the region in the medium and long term.
In perhaps the most detailed assessment of the recruitment drive by IS in Central Asia so far, the ICG estimated that between 2,000 and 4,000 men and women had been attracted by IS propaganda to travel to Syria and fight for the radical group.
“Should a significant portion of these radicalised migrants return, they risk challenging security and stability throughout Central Asia,” ICG wrote in its 16-page report.
“Their [the five Central Asian states] security services — underfunded, poorly trained and inclined to resort to harsh methods to compensate for a lack of resources and skills — are unable to deal with a challenge as intricate as radical Islam.”
Among the incentives for Central Asians to enlist in IS ranks, the ICG points to three main triggers: The opportunity to join a religious cause abroad otherwise suppressed at home; the rejection of gloomy economic prospects; the chance to express repressed political views.
Other causes are outlined. The lack of a proper education with youth members of Islamic congregations resorting to unofficial Muslim training; the lack of social safety nets for women; the accessibility to Turkey, the major entry point for the northern battles in Syria.
The ICG argues that IS is reviving the violence among extremist groups in Central Asia as well. The ICG called for the enforcement of strict rules on terrorism and tighter security monitoring by the states in the region.
In the short-term at least, ICG wrote, preventative measures are essential for combating the IS recruitment.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
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JAN. 19 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — GM Uzbekistan sold 38% fewer cars in Russia in 2014 than it did in 2013, media reported quoting the European Businesses Association. The data highlights the impact that the falling rouble and the economic turmoil in Russia is having across the former Soviet Union. Russia is GM Uzbekistan’s biggest market.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
JAN. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Despite the downturn in Russia’s economy, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) predicted decent growth for Uzbekistan’s economy in 2015 of around 7%. The EBRD heavily slashed growth rates of Uzbekistan’s neighbours. Uzbekistan’s economy is more sheltered than its neighbours.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
JAN. 12 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Uzbek Border Guard Service has beefed up its units along its frontier with Afghanistan, citing intelligence that the Taliban was mustering its forces, although some analysts and Afghan security officials questioned the level of the threat.
Central Asian governments have said that the withdrawal of NATO from Afghanistan will worsen its own border security.
Two weeks ago, Zamir Kabulov, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy for Afghanistan said that the Taliban was planning a wide offensive on Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in April.
Even with the Russian warning and the Uzbek military build-up, the Tajik-language service of the US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty quoted Afghan general Abdusabur Nusrati refuting reports of the Taliban build-up.
An Uzbek analyst who declined to be named was also sceptical over just how acute the Taliban threat was.
Instead he suggested that the move may be linked to the up and coming presidential election set for March 29. He said that the security issue may play into President Islam Karimov’s image as the tough man of Uzbekistan.
“The country is preparing for presidential elections in only three months,” he said. “To my mind this statements is another indication that he is eyeing another bid as president.”
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(News report from Issue No. 214, published on Jan. 14 2015)
