JUNE 18 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Uzbekistan’s security forces opened a money laundering investigation into UzGazOil, a private company that runs a network of petrol stations, the US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported. UzGazOil was owned by Zeromax which was linked to Gulnara Karimova, the eldest daughter of Pres. Islam Karimov.
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(News report from Issue No. 236, published on June 18 2015)
JUNE 13 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Trade between Russia and Uzbekistan has dropped slightly last year because of the worsening economic conditions, Vladimir Tyurdenev, the Russian ambassador in Tashkent, told media. Mr Tyurdenev’s comments are a rare admission by an official that the downturn in Russia’s economy has hit Uzbekistan.
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(News report from Issue No. 236, published on June 18 2015)
JUNE 12 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – In Tashkent, UN chief Ban Ki-Moon said the Uzbek authorities should stop using forced labour to pick cotton and also improve prisoners’ rights. Clothing companies have boycotted Uzbek cotton.
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(News report from Issue No. 236, published on June 18 2015)
JUNE 11 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Uzbek legislation rubber- stamped the government’s report on fulfilling the 2014 and 2015 budget which reported GDP growth of 8.1% despite a general downturn in economic conditions across the region.
The glowing numbers appear at odds with other economic indicators leaking out of the country.
According to analysts interviewed by the US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Uzbek service, brewing financial trouble, triggered by the government’s failure to pay salaries, pensions and stipends over the last several months could spark turmoil.
The Uzbek economy has been shrinking over the last couple years caused by falling global oil prices, a boycott of Uzbek cotton and diminishing remittances from Uzbek labour migrants in Russia as predicted by the World Bank. The World Bank has said that Uzbekistan’s economy will shrink further in 2015-16.
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(News report from Issue No. 236, published on June 18 2015)
JUNE 12 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmenistan has extended its military draft, websites reported, perhaps to bolster units along the increasingly tense border with Afghanistan.
“According to incoming reports, the majority of young men, who have been recently drafted in Lebap and Balkan velayats, will be sent to the military units based in Kushka, i.e. near the Turkmen-Afghan border,” the website reported.
Senior military officials have previously said that they need to boost the number of soldiers in the army to counter perceived threat from the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Last year reports from the border said that Turkmen army units clashed with Taliban units in a number of skirmishes. This year, though, reports from the border of military activity have been much reduced.
Even so, the Chronicles of Turkmenistan website reported that the Turkmen military has extended the draft for con- scripts to July 25 from the end of June.
“According to incoming reports, the majority of young men, who have been recently drafted in Lebap and Balkan velayats, will be sent to the military units based in Kushka, i.e. near the Turkmen-Afghan border,” the website reported.
The countries that border Afghanistan — Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan — have been warning that the Taliban is preparing to move to Central Asia.
Russia has supported this assessment and sent various military advisers to the region as well as offering to boost its military presence along the border.
But many Western analysts have scorned this viewpoint and said instead that the narrative has been designed to bolster strict military and authoritarian rule in the region.
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(News report from Issue No. 236, published on June 18 2015)
JUNE 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Uzbek-US joint car-maker General Motors Uzbekistan said it would discount two of its models by 15% until the end of 2015, an admission of sorts that its needs to boost sales to counter a falling market linked to economic turmoil in Russia.
Customers, though, can only claim the 15% discount on Lacetti and Cobalt cars by paying in US dollars with international debit and credit cards.
The car plant in the eastern town of Andijan is critical for jobs in the surrounding region and also an important barometer of Uzbek industry.
Most of its sales are made in Russia and also in neighbouring Kazakhstan but the fall in oil prices has hit the region and badly dented demand for cars.
In March, the plant sold 1,757 cars compared to 4,604 cars in the same month a year earlier, the Association of European Businesses, an industry lobby group, said.
As well as driving up car sales (pun intended), the government may also be looking to bolster US dollar flows in its economy.
Information leaking out of Uzbekistan on the state of the economy is light but it does appear to show that the slowdown in the Russian economy is having a major impact on Uzbekistan. Remittances are hugely important in Uzbekistan. They rely on a strong Russian economy. Economists have estimated that these will fall by 40% this year. Global gas prices, another important foreign currency earner for Uzbekistan, are also low.
By imposing a dollar payment scheme on car buyers, the Uzbek government may be trying to get hard currency flowing through the system once again as well as boosting sales at its flagship industrial asset.
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(News report from Issue No. 235, published on June 11 2015)
JUNE 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – An Iranian delegation headed by Muhammedreza Nematzadeh travelled to Tashkent for a meeting with senior Uzbek officials where the two countries pledged to improve ties, media reported. Trade volumes between the two countries have been steadily increasing.
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(News report from Issue No. 235, published on June 11 2015)
JUNE 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The authorities in Uzbekistan have imposed new restrictions on foreign travel, media reported. From now on, people with debts will be barred from leaving the country. Uzbekistan is considered to be one of the most repressive countries in the world.
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(News report from Issue No. 235, published on June 11 2015)
JUNE 4 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – As part of its ambition to become a more important transit country, Uzbekistan plans to increase the amount of cargo it moves through to Europe, media reported. A government official said that Uzbekistan wanted to increase cargo levels by 400% over the next few years.
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(News report from Issue No. 234, published on June 4 2015)
MAY 28-30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Uzbek President Islam Karimov completed a three day state visit to South Korea which laid the foundations to further develop relations between the two countries.
Mr Karimov and South Korean president Park Geun-hye signed deals worth $7.7b. The agreements cover many sectors ranging from financial to medical to agriculture sectors.
Compare the $7.7b worth of deals to trade between Uzbekistan and South Korea of $1.9b last year.
Mr Karimov appears to have deliberately chosen South Korea for his first foreign trip following his re-election in March for two important reasons.
South Korea is a close ally of the West, and a reception in Seoul offers Mr Karimov’s recognition and credence, and may serve as a stepping-stone for recognition by other capitals.
It is also important to note that Mr Karimov chose a country to visit that would not irritate either Moscow or Washington.
And there is also a cold, hard economic reason for choos- ing to visit South Korea so soon after winning re-election. Mr Karimov needs hard currency to boost the economy, which has been in a downward spiral since Western sanctions hit Russia and dented remittances.
South Korea and Uzbekistan are closely linked. The Soviet Dictator moved thousands of Koreans to Uzbekistan in the 1930s and 1940s.
There is still a large Korean diaspora living in Uzbekistan and, as well as being an important investor in Uzbekistan, after Russia and Kazakhstan, South Korea generates the most remittance flow.
An agreement from Mr Karimov’s trip to Seoul on the mutual recognition of drivers’ licenses also suggested that the two parties are expecting closer ties between the countries.
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(News report from Issue No. 234, published on June 4 2015)
