OCT. 28 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Booming commodity prices and a sustained revival in Russia’s economy are driving economic recovery in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a report. The IMF said economies in both regions will grow this year except for Kyrgyzstan where political turmoil has dented growth.
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(News report from Issue No. 13, published on Nov. 1 2010)
OCT. 28 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Underdeveloped banking systems, a high rate of non-performing loans and inflexible exchange rates are potential brakes on economic recovery in Central Asia and the south Caucasus, the IMF said.
With their reliance on neighbouring Russia and global commodity prices, the global financial downturn in 2009 was tough for the economies of Central Asia and the south Caucasus. This year, with Russia and commodity prices recovering and the impact of domestic fiscal stimulus taking hold, the IMF predicts steady economic growth throughout the regions, other than for Kyrgyzstan.
Remittances from workers in Russia, so important for the poorer Central Asian and Caucasus countries, grew by 26% in the first half of 2010 compared to the same period in 2009.
The IMF said that inflation was generally under control at around 8%, although in Uzbekistan it was nearer 11%. For the IMF, the regions’ banking sectors are a concern. In Kazakhstan, the IMF pointed out, non-performing loans total nearly 26% of all loans.
IMF’s GDP % growth figures (2010 and 2011 are predictions):
Armenia +13.7 (2007); +6.9 (2008); -14.2 (2009); +4.0 (2010); +4.6 (2011)
Azerbaijan +25.0 (2007); +10.8 (2008); +9.3 (2009); +4.3 (2010); +1.8 (2011)
Georgia +12.3 (2007); +2.3 (2008); -3.9 (2009); +5.5 (2010); +4.0 (2011)
Kazakhstan +8.9 (2007); +3.2 (2008); +1.2 (2009); +5.4 (2010); +5.1 (2011)
Kyrgyzstan +8.5 (2007); +8.4 (2008); +2.3 (2009); -3.5 (2010); +7.1 (2011)
Tajikistan +7.8 (2007); +7.9 (2008); +3.4 (2009); +5.5 (2010); +5.0 (2011)
Turkmenistan +11.6 (2007); +10.5 (2008); +6.1 (2009); +9.4 (2010); +11.5 (2011)
Uzbekistan +9.5 (2007); +9.0 (2008); +8.1 (2009); +8.0 (2010); +7.0 (2011)
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(News report from Issue No. 13, published on Nov. 1 2010)
Oct. 21 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbek President Islam Karimov visited Turkmen leader Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov for two days of talks starting on Oct. 19. He was followed on Oct. 21 by Russian President Dmitri Medvedev for separate meetings with Mr Berdymukhamedov.
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(News report from Issue No. 12, published on Oct. 21 2010)
OCT. 19 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Relations between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have blossomed recently and on Oct. 19 Uzbek President Islam Karimov arrived in Ashgabat for a two day visit, his second trip in 10 months.
Mr Karimov last visited in Dec. 2009 for the opening of a gas pipeline running from Turkmenistan to China via Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. As if to highlight strengthening Uzbek-Turkmen friendship, Mr Karimov’s press office said trade in 2009 between the two neighbours had increased by 40%.
But relations haven’t always been this cosy and only since Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov took over as Turkmenistan’s president in 2006, have links visibly improved.
There was little official detail on what was discussed but talks were likely to have focused on NATO’s war in Afghanistan, gas export prices and shared concern about the growing influence of Russia in Central Asia — Kazakhstan has joined a Customs Union with Russia and Belarus and an election in Kyrgyzstan handed pro-Russia parties the balance of power — as well as concern at the development of upstream hydropower plants in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
According to Mr Karimov’s press office, the potential of a transport corridor from Central Asia to the Middle East was also on the agenda.
Combined, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have clout in the region. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are major gas, gold and cotton exporters and they hold nearly half of Central Asia’s roughly 60m people.
Karimov’s visit was also well timed. The day after he left, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev arrived in Ashgabat for his own talks with Mr Berdymukhamedov.
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(News report from Issue No. 12, published on Oct. 21 2010)
OCT. 15 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbekistan convicted a reporter of slander, insult and disturbing the peace. The judge fined Abdulmalik Boboyev, who works for US-funded Voice of America, $10,000 but did not jail him. Mr Boboyev was the second Uzbek reporter convicted but not sent to jail by Uzbek authorities in a week, the same week an Uzbek delegation visited Washington for talks.
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(News report from Issue No. 12, published on Oct. 21 2010)
OCT. 13 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbekistan convicted journalist Vladimir Berezovsky of libel on the Russian language news website vesti.uz. The court granted him an amnesty and he returned to work afterwards but Human Rights Watch still said the conviction was an attack on freedom of speech.
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(News report from Issue No. 11, published on Oct. 14 2010)
OCT. 7 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — A reporter for U.S.-funded radio station Voice of America went on trial in Uzbekistan accused of slander and posing a threat to public order, news agencies quoted a local human rights group as saying. Reporter Abdumalik Boboyev faces up to eight years in jail.
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(News report from Issue No. 10, published on Oct. 7 2010)
SEPT. 15 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — A court in south Kyrgyzstan gave an Uzbek rights activist and 7 other defendants a life jail sentence for killing a policeman during ethnic clashes in June. Human rights groups said the trial had been unfair and the defendants had been beaten.
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(News report from Issue No. 7, published on Sept. 16 2010)
SEPT. 16 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Created in 2001, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) has a broad remit to promote economic, cultural and military cooperation between its 6 members; China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
Certainly, the SCO has initiated a handful of economic and infrastructure projects but its roots are in military cooperation beginning in the mid-1990s. Some Western observers say the SCO could one day act as a counterbalance to NATO.
For now, though, SCO is politically too fractured to rival NATO and acts more as a regional forum to discuss anti-terrorist measures and energy policy than coordinate defence policies. Its regional anti-terrorist headquarters are based in Tashkent.
Notably, the SCO did not act during Kyrgyzstan’s revolution in April or in June during ethnic violence in the south of the country when hundreds died.
In 2008, the SCO and its members chose not to back Russia and recognise the Georgian breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states.
Still, the large scale and highly publicised war games are the SCO’s most eye catching activity. Peace Mission 2010, the SCO military exercise which started on Sept. 13 in Kazakhstan, is the biggest military exercise since Russia hosted it in 2007.
The SCO does appear to have wider geographic ambitions. India, Iran, Pakistan and Mongolia have SCO observer status, Sri Lanka and Belarus are dialogue partners and Afghanistan has been invited to SCO summits as a guest.
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(News report from Issue No. 7, published on Sept. 16 2010)
SEPT. 13 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — A 2 week long military exercise by the China and Russia-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) started in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan, Russia and China sent 1,000 soldiers each, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan sent 150 soldiers each. Uzbekistan declined to send any. It is the biggest SCO military exercise since 2007.
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(News report from Issue No. 7, published on Sept. 16 2010)
