NOV. 9 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) – The head of Tajikistan’s National Security Council, Saymumin Yatimov, said Tajik security forces have defeated militants in the east of the country. Tajikistan started operations in the Rasht Valley in September after militants killed at least 25 soldiers in an ambush. The government has linked militants to the Taliban in Afghanistan.
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(News report from Issue No. 15, published on Nov. 15 2010)
OCT. 28 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Booming commodity prices and a sustained revival in Russia’s economy are driving economic recovery in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a report. The IMF said economies in both regions will grow this year except for Kyrgyzstan where political turmoil has dented growth.
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(News report from Issue No. 13, published on Nov. 1 2010)
OCT. 28 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Underdeveloped banking systems, a high rate of non-performing loans and inflexible exchange rates are potential brakes on economic recovery in Central Asia and the south Caucasus, the IMF said.
With their reliance on neighbouring Russia and global commodity prices, the global financial downturn in 2009 was tough for the economies of Central Asia and the south Caucasus. This year, with Russia and commodity prices recovering and the impact of domestic fiscal stimulus taking hold, the IMF predicts steady economic growth throughout the regions, other than for Kyrgyzstan.
Remittances from workers in Russia, so important for the poorer Central Asian and Caucasus countries, grew by 26% in the first half of 2010 compared to the same period in 2009.
The IMF said that inflation was generally under control at around 8%, although in Uzbekistan it was nearer 11%. For the IMF, the regions’ banking sectors are a concern. In Kazakhstan, the IMF pointed out, non-performing loans total nearly 26% of all loans.
IMF’s GDP % growth figures (2010 and 2011 are predictions):
Armenia +13.7 (2007); +6.9 (2008); -14.2 (2009); +4.0 (2010); +4.6 (2011)
Azerbaijan +25.0 (2007); +10.8 (2008); +9.3 (2009); +4.3 (2010); +1.8 (2011)
Georgia +12.3 (2007); +2.3 (2008); -3.9 (2009); +5.5 (2010); +4.0 (2011)
Kazakhstan +8.9 (2007); +3.2 (2008); +1.2 (2009); +5.4 (2010); +5.1 (2011)
Kyrgyzstan +8.5 (2007); +8.4 (2008); +2.3 (2009); -3.5 (2010); +7.1 (2011)
Tajikistan +7.8 (2007); +7.9 (2008); +3.4 (2009); +5.5 (2010); +5.0 (2011)
Turkmenistan +11.6 (2007); +10.5 (2008); +6.1 (2009); +9.4 (2010); +11.5 (2011)
Uzbekistan +9.5 (2007); +9.0 (2008); +8.1 (2009); +8.0 (2010); +7.0 (2011)
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(News report from Issue No. 13, published on Nov. 1 2010)
OCT. 14 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Itar-Tass news agency quoted Tajik law enforcement officials saying rebels fighting government forces in the Rasht Valley in the east of the country have started to surrender. The government has blamed the rebels for a string of attacks including an ambush that killed 28 soldiers.
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(News report from Issue No. 11, published on Oct. 14 2010)
OCT. 3 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Iranian and Tajik energy ministers endorsed a memorandum of understanding on improving cooperation between the two countries on a range of issues from industry to social affairs, Iran’s Fars news agency reported. Iran and Tajikistan have worked on improving ties through the year.
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(News report from Issue No. 10, published on Oct. 7 2010)
OCT. 6 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — A military helicopter supporting operations against Islamist militants crashed in eastern Tajikistan. Initial news reports said that 28 elite soldiers died in the crash but Tajikistan’s National Guard refuted this and said later only seven military personnel had died.
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(News report from Issue No. 10, published on Oct. 7 2010)
SEPT. 23 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), linked to al-Qaeda and the Taliban, claimed responsibility for an ambush in Tajikistan on Sept. 19 which killed at least 28 soldiers. The 2001 US-led invasion of Afghanistan nearly destroyed the IMU but in the last few years it has renewed attacks in Central Asia.
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(News report from Issue No. 9, published on Sept. 30 2010)
SEPT. 19 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — At least 25 soldiers died in an ambush in the north of Tajikistan, the worst attack on the Tajik military for years. The ambush followed a surge of violence in the past few weeks, including two bomb attacks. Tajikistan’s government blamed militants.
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(News report from Issue No. 8, published on Sept. 23 2010)
SEPT. 16 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Created in 2001, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) has a broad remit to promote economic, cultural and military cooperation between its 6 members; China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
Certainly, the SCO has initiated a handful of economic and infrastructure projects but its roots are in military cooperation beginning in the mid-1990s. Some Western observers say the SCO could one day act as a counterbalance to NATO.
For now, though, SCO is politically too fractured to rival NATO and acts more as a regional forum to discuss anti-terrorist measures and energy policy than coordinate defence policies. Its regional anti-terrorist headquarters are based in Tashkent.
Notably, the SCO did not act during Kyrgyzstan’s revolution in April or in June during ethnic violence in the south of the country when hundreds died.
In 2008, the SCO and its members chose not to back Russia and recognise the Georgian breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states.
Still, the large scale and highly publicised war games are the SCO’s most eye catching activity. Peace Mission 2010, the SCO military exercise which started on Sept. 13 in Kazakhstan, is the biggest military exercise since Russia hosted it in 2007.
The SCO does appear to have wider geographic ambitions. India, Iran, Pakistan and Mongolia have SCO observer status, Sri Lanka and Belarus are dialogue partners and Afghanistan has been invited to SCO summits as a guest.
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(News report from Issue No. 7, published on Sept. 16 2010)
SEPT. 13 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — A 2 week long military exercise by the China and Russia-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) started in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan, Russia and China sent 1,000 soldiers each, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan sent 150 soldiers each. Uzbekistan declined to send any. It is the biggest SCO military exercise since 2007.
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(News report from Issue No. 7, published on Sept. 16 2010)
