MAY 9 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Six years after withdrawing its guards from the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border, Russia wants to return.

The Kremlin feels Tajikistan cannot control its borders effectively and is worried about a wave of Islamic militants and drugs seeping through the country after NATO forces withdraw from neighbouring Afghanistan in 2014, sources in Moscow have told the media Tajikistan is already fighting Islamic militants and is one of the main transit routes for drugs leaving Afghanistan for Russia and Europe.

But there may be more at stake. Russia is competing with the United States and China for influence over Tajikistan and controlling the border with Afghanistan would give it major leverage. Not only is Tajikistan a major access point into and out of Afghanistan but its mountains, rivers and dams control a large proportion of the water supply for the other Central Asian states. Controlling water supplies in Central Asia, equates to power.

Russia maintains a large base in Tajikistan but its military presence there is far reduced from the 1990s and to re-position its soldiers on the border it first needs to win over Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon.

And, to say the least, Mr Rakhmon is sceptical of the benefits of the Russian border guards.

The WikiLeaks website recently published a US diplomatic cable written in December 2005 in which the ambassador quoted Mr Rakhmon describing how he had personally ordered the Russian border guards to leave. Mr Rakhmon was convinced the Russian border guards were plotting a coup.

ENDS

MAY 5 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Russia has re-started talks with Tajikistan on stationing 3,000 guards along the important Tajik-Afghan border, Reuters reported. Russia, the US and China are competing for influence in Central Asia. Russian soldiers patrolled the border until 2005.

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