APRIL 15 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Tajikistan is watching the ongoing presidential election in Afghanistan with interest.
If ethnic Tajik former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah defeats his main Pashtun rival, the former finance minister Ashraf Ghani, genuinely closer relations between the two neighbours may flourish.
Alexander Sodiqov an analyst and author of the Tajikistan Monitor blog said aside from being an ethnic Tajik there are other reasons why Dushanbe thinks a victory for Mr Abdullah would boost Tajik-Afghan relations.
“Abdullah had been very close to Ahmad Shah Massoud at the time when Tajikistan provided military and material support for the Northern Alliance. Dushanbe expects that Abdullah has not forgotten that support,” he said referring to the main anti-Taliban commander who was assassinated in 2001.
There is another important security question at stake.
“Abdullah’s main constituency base is in northern Afghanistan, and he fought against Taliban for a long time,” said Mr Sodiqov. “Dushanbe sees Abdullah’s possible presidency as an additional guarantee that Taliban militants would not threaten its porous southern border.”
The Tajik government has complained for a while that the withdrawal of NATO forces in 2014 will leave a security vacuum in Afghanistan. Trade has been growing between Tajikistan and Afghanistan, now worth over $100 million, but the West is hoping that relations grow closer still.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 180, published on April 16 2014)