SEPT. 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Uzbek president Islam Karimov is due in Dushanbe for the first time since 2008 for the annual meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The two-day SCO meeting is due to begin on Sept. 11. This meeting is particularly important because of strained relations between the neighbours.
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(News report from Issue No. 199, published on Sept. 10 2014)
SEPT. 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The 13th summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will be held in Dushanbe on Sept. 11 – 12.
Russia and China lead the SCO, a group that has regional security and economic development at its core. The other members are Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
The summit is expected to focus on deepening security ties and the possibility of expanding the organisation to include Afghanistan, India, Mongolia and Pakistan by next year. On Aug. 24, the SCO held its largest ever joint military drills to date in China’s Inner Mongolia province.
With Russia accused of arming rebels in Ukraine and the US-led NATO planning to enlarge by including Australia as a member, enlargement of the SCO would come at a sensitive time. As the only regional organisation to include both Russia and China, the SCO’s profile has grown over the years. Moscow and Beijing appear, though, to have different views on the future of the group.
In Bishkek this summer, China promoted its Silk Road Economic belt concept. This concept, focused on infrastructure investment and trade protection, seems to run counter to Russia’s own Eurasian integration efforts via the protectionist, China-exclusive Eurasian Economic Union.
The Kremlin has also reportedly persistently blocked the development of an SCO bank, preferring the organisation to focus on security matters, where it is closer to parity with China.
Both are said to be cautious towards any expansion that might dilute their respective influences, but acknowledge the need for the SCO to grow in order to relevant.
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(News report from Issue No. 199, published on Sept. 10 2014)
AUG. 27 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Police in Tajikistan detained two Russian soldiers for the suspected murder of a Tajik taxi driver in Dushanbe, media reported. Russia maintains a major military base, its largest overseas base, in the Pamir Mountains. If the soldiers are formally accused of killing the taxi driver, it could dampen important bilateral relations.
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(News report from Issue No. 198, published on Sept. 3 2014)
SEPT. 1 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan is on the brink of a Russian-fuelled petrol crisis according to independent news outlet Avesta.tj.
Unnamed sources told Avesta.tj that a collective of 25 Tajik fuel importers had written to President Emomali Rakhmon to tell him that he needed to buy extra fuel supplies to avoid potentially destructive price hikes. The problem, they said, was export restrictions at the Russian refineries where Tajikistan gets its fuel.
The letter said that supplies of A-92 petrol, imported from Russia, and other types of fuel, may be exhausted by mid-September unless he intervenes to ensure previous levels of supply. Apparently the letter attributes the restrictions to parallel shortages in energy rich Russia. Kyrgyzstan is also hurting. Petrol prices in Tajikistan’s northern neighbour have risen by 13.8% in some parts of the country over an eight month period.
Officially, according to the head of the Kyrgyz Oil Traders association, the reason for the restrictions is that multiple refineries in Russia are undergoing repairs simultaneously.
Unofficially, it’s more likely that sanctions imposed on Russia for its actions in Ukraine are biting.
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(News report from Issue No. 198, published on Sept. 3 2014)
AUG. 30 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The self-styled Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has appointed a Tajik as one of its leaders, media reported. Officials in Tajikistan said the appointment to ISIL, which has beheaded Western journalists, may increase the number of disenfranchised Tajiks heading to fight for it.
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(News report from Issue No. 198, published on Sept. 3 2014)
AUG. 26 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Two Tajiks — a civilian and a soldier — died in a shootout with Kyrgyz forces on the Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan border, the most serious violence along the disputed boundary this year. The row between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan threatens to destabilise the region.
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(News report from Issue No. 197, published on Aug. 27 2014)
AUG. 12 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan jailed seven men for plotting to attack the TALCO aluminium plant in the west of the country. TALCO is Tajikistan’s biggest economic asset and any successful attack would cripple the Tajik economy. The court said the group wanted to overthrow the government.
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(News report from Issue No. 196, published on Aug. 20 2014)
AUG. 19 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – A lack of opportunities has turned Tajikistan into a prime recruiting ground for radical Islamists, Eurasianet reported. Eurasianet said Tajiks could earn more money fighting for extremists in Syria than they could working on a construction sites in Russia, the usual way for Tajiks to earn money to send home.
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(News report from Issue No. 196, published on Aug. 20 2014)
AUG. 19 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Demonstrating China’s regional prowess, the Chinese security chief, Meng Jianzhu, pledged to help Tajikistan beef up its law enforcement services and security operations. China has been increasing its clout in Central Asia over the past few years and now considers the region as part of its extended domain.
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(News report from Issue No. 196, published on Aug. 20 2014)
AUG. 5 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Uzbekistan’s military detained five Tajik shepherds and their livestock for a week after they strayed into Uzbek territory, media reported, briefly heightening tension between the two neighbours. Uzbekistan- Tajikistan relations are particularly important to monitor for stability in Central Asia.
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(News report from Issue No. 194, published on Aug. 6 2014)
