Tag Archives: Tajikistan

Tajik economy sliding, says WB

OCT. 27 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan’s GDP has fallen by 0.8% this year compared to 2014, the World Bank said, more evidence that economies closely-linked to Russia are suffering from sanctions imposed by the West.

The World Bank said that a fall in remittances from Tajik workers in Russia had translated into weaker domestic demand for goods.

“A Russian slowdown affects Tajikistan largely through the remittances channel,” the World Bank wrote in its report.

“A slackening in remittances weighs heavily on household demand, notably demand for services and housing construction.”

This is particularly worrying for Western countries which are counting on a strong and stable Tajikistan to act as a bulwark against any movement by the Taliban northwards into Central Asia from Afghanistan.

Most of the former Soviet Union has been hit by Western sanctions imposed on Russia because of its alleged intervention in the Ukraine civil war but the World Bank also said that a generally weak global demand for industrial goods was impacting Tajikistan too.

It said that industrial growth had fallen to 3% from 7% a year earlier because of low global industrial demand and falling cotton and aluminium prices.

These sentiments mirror the Tajik Central Bank. Both also predicted that inflation would gradually become an increased concern in Tajikistan.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 206, published on Oct. 29 2014)

Negotiations re-open over Tajik-Kyrgyz border

OCT. 27 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Negotiations over the Tajik-Kyrgyz border have re-opened, media reported. This is important because this year there have been several skirmishes along the border. The issue of the Tajiki-Kyrgyz border is one of the most sensitive in Central Asia and has the potential to destabilise the region.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 206, published on Oct. 29 2014)

Tajikistan worries about IS

OCT. 24 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan’s government is increasingly worried about the number of young Tajiks fighting in the Syria for the extremist group Islamic State (IS). Media quoted officials as saying that 50 Tajik nationals had now been killed in Syria, up from five in June.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 206, published on Oct. 29 2014)

Tajikistan grants mass amnesty

OCT. 20 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Playing the role of the great benevolent master, Tajik president Emomali Rakhmon granted amnesty to 10,000 prisoners in Tajikistan to mark the 20th anniversary of the country’s constitution. Mr Rakhmon, president since the mid-1990s, regularly uses amnesties to relieve over-crowding in prisons which human rights groups criticise.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 205, published on Oct. 22 2014)

Denmark’s Royal Highness visits Tajikistan

OCT. 21 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Denmark’s Royal Highness Crown Princess Mary will fly into Tajikistan on Oct. 23 for a three day trip as part of her role as patron of the World Health Organisation’s Europe office, WHO said. Princess Mary’s visit will throw a rare touch of royal glamour over Tajikistan.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 205, published on Oct. 22 2014)

Russian economic slowdown pressures Tajik economy

OCT. 21 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan is deeply concerned about the impact that Russia’s slowing economy will have on its own economic prospects, the deputy economy minister Jamoliddin Nuraliev told the FT in an interview in his office in Dushanbe.

As reported previously in the Bulletin, Tajikistan’s economy is already showing warning signs linked to an impending recession in Russia. Sanctions, imposed by the West because of Russia’s alleged involvement in arming rebels in Ukraine, have started to strangle the Russian economy and those closely linked to it. This includes Tajikistan which is reliant on Russian imports and remittances from Tajiks working in Russia to prop up its economy.

“We are very much concerned about things happening in the Russian economy. We hope it will find a way to stabilise over the next year,” Mr Nuraliev said.

Earlier this month, the Tajik Central Bank raised interest rates to its highest level in two years to battle creeping inflation.

As a substitute for Russia investment Mr Nuraliev said that Tajikistan was counting on large infrastructure projects paid for by China which is looking to increase its influence in the region.

The concern with large Chinese-funded infrastructure projects is that the cash fails to trickle down fully to ordinary Tajiks. Instead, the ringmasters cream off decent proportion of the cash.

Remittances is a more effective way of pushing much needed cash lower down the chain.

Whether China’s large projects materialise or not, Tajikistan is due a rocky period, economically.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 205, published on Oct. 22 2014)

Tajikistan raises interest rates

OCT. 9 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan’s Central Bank increased its key interest rate by 1% to 6.9%, its highest level in two years, to try and dampen rapidly rising inflation.

Like other countries in former Soviet Central Asia, Tajikistan’s economy is suffering from the knock-on effect of sanctions on Russia. Remittances from workers based in Russia generate around half of Tajikistan’s GDP. This revenue stream has dried up since the sanctions dampened Russia’s economy.

But Tajikistan is also battling rising inflation. Inflation measured over 5% for the first eight months of this year, nearly double the rate for last year.

The main problem for Tajikistan is that as well as weakening remittance flows from Russia, importing goods has become more expensive.

Rising inflation and a weakening economy is a nightmare combination for Tajikistan.

This was also the second interest rate increase by Tajikistan this year. In May it boosted interest rates by 1.1% to 5.9%. Previously it had cut rates on eight consecutive occasions.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 204, published on Oct. 15 2014)

CU bolsters Tajik security

OCT. 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – At a meeting of CIS heads of states in Minsk, Tajik president Emomali Rakhmon said Belarus and Armenia had already given it aid to bolster security along its border with Afghanistan. Tajikistan wants to join the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union which counts Belarus and Kazakhstan as members. Armenia is joining in 2015.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 204, published on Oct. 15 2014)

Tajikistan boosts coal production

OCT. 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan has nearly doubled the amount of coal it has mined so far this year, media reported. The increase was needed to meet a surge in demand created by industries switching from gas to coal for power. The boost in demand for coal should also increase employment in Tajikistan.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 204, published on Oct. 15 2014)

Tajik opposition demo fails

OCT. 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – A planned opposition demonstration in central Dushanbe failed to materialise after the authorities blocked websites and social media outlets and used a riot exercise as a show of force.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 204, published on Oct. 15 2014)

Exiled opposition figures have called for a change of government.