SEPT. 11 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Last week Tajikistan experienced some of its bloodiest fighting in recent years. Although the regime has been quick to label the rebels as “terrorists” sponsored by outside forces, the conflict is in fact the product of internal factors.
Tajikistan remains a mafia state. Different factions compete over the resources it has to offer. Government posts are not merely daytime jobs; they offer elites access to power and wealth.
With such a contested political economy, conflicts boil to the surface intermittently.
After the country’s civil war ended in 1997, some opposition warlords were incorporated into the regime.
Since signing the power-sharing deal, Emomali Rakhmon’s government has reneged on its promises, imprisoning, killing and exiling many of its former foes.
Not all of them have laid down their arms without a fight. Last Friday’s armed uprising is just the last in a series of conflicts involving former opposition strongmen.
Until recently, Major-General Abdukhalim Nazarzoda was one of the last remaining opposition commanders in government.
A skilful player of the political game, he rose to the rank of deputy defence minister in 2014. At the same time, he amassed a fortune through control of a bread factory, a poultry farm and other assets.
But last week his position came under threat.
According to a statement released by his supporters on September 6, the regime plotted to remove Nazarzoda for refusing to agree with the recent ban on the government’s main opponents, the Islamic Renaissance Party.
Instead of going quietly, he decided to go out fighting. And fight he did, leaving over forty people dead.
Dushanbe seems to have the situation under control for now. Despite sustaining heavy casualties, the security services have now neutralised most of Nazarzoda’s supporters, killing the general himself on September 11.
With the move against Nazarzoda, the regime has sent a clear warning signal to other commanders of dubious loyalty.
Not all of them will step aside without a fight.
Over the next few years Tajikistan’s fractious post-conflict state will sporadically erupt into violence.
By Edward Lemon, PhD candidate at Exeter University focusing on Tajikistan
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 247, published on Sept. 11 2015)