OCT. 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) -Tajikistan has increased coal output by 22% in the first nine months of 2015, compared to the same period last year. Coal production stands at 858,000 tonnes. Coal burning power stations are important for electricity generation and household heating.
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(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)
OCT. 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — In this current regional economic crisis, when currencies are stable it has to be positive.
The US Federal Reserve Bank kept interest rates unchanged, giving some more breathing room to currencies across Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
This was one of the first stable weeks for currencies in the region after heavy turbulence shook, ravished even, the markets.
The three free-floating currencies followed a similar pattern this week, weakening only marginally.
The Kazakh tenge lost just 0.5% of its value against the US dollar, ending at 279.2/$1 on Friday. The Kyrgyz som followed suit losing 0.7% of its value at 69.4/$1. The Georgian lari was stable at 2.39/$1.
In Tajikistan, the Central Bank said the somoni lost 30% of its value in the year to Sept. 2015. On Friday, it was stable at 6.62/$1.
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(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)
OCT. 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Remittances from Russia to Central Asia and the South Caucasus keep falling, a major problem for countries which are heavily reliant on cash sent back by workers in Russia. Think Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan in particular.
Fresh data from the Russian Central Bank shows a fall of 12% in Q3 2015 compared to the same period last year for all countries in our region, except Georgia, which lies outside the Russian data.
For Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, remittances from migrant workers are vital, accounting for around half of their GDP. Uzbekistan and Armenia are also heavily reliant on money transfers from Russia.
Remittances to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan showed a first sign of recovery in Q3, although their overall balance for 2015 remains negative, compared to 2014. According to the Kyrgyz Central Bank, the value of remittances this year has dropped by around $400m to $1b.
Similarly, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have lost as much as 35% of their remittances in the first nine months of 2015.
From rock bottom, it can only get better. Figures from the next two quarters will likely show a growth in the value of remittances, because the benchmark they will be measured against is the nadir of the crisis of last winter.
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(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)
OCT. 23 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The South Caucasus and Central Asia might be looking at a long term economic crisis, the IMF said, sending a chill down the spines of the region’s investors.
After the shock of the 2008/9 financial crisis, countries across the region picked up pace and restored the steady growth pattern they had witnessed in the early 2000s.
But the current crisis, which Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev called worse than the 2008/9 financial crunch, could linger on for longer than expected because of its ripple effects on the Russian economy, the IMF said.
Lower oil prices have affected hydrocarbon exporters from the region – big and small, private and state. Several exploration and production projects have become unprofitable and revenues have lost value. The IMF forecast a break- even price of around $60/barrel or higher for both Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. If oil prices are lower, debt will grow and reserves will shrink.
Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia, had been forecasted to be better off due to lower oil prices, but the fall in the rouble has reduced the value of their remittances and pressured currencies.
And the IMF had a message. Reform is the only option, it said.
“The long-lasting nature of the shocks means that deeper and more durable policy changes will be needed,” Juha Kähkönen, deputy director of the IMF in Almaty said.
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(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)
OCT. 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Senior officials from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan agreed to meet on Nov. 5 in Bishkek to try and resolve the long running issue of border demarcation. Border disputes have strained relations between the two countries since independence.
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(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)
OCT. 26 2015, DUSHANBE (The Conway Bulletin) — A group of students at the Tajik National University appealed to the US, the EU and Germany to extradite opposition members, raising immediate concerns that the authorities may be coercing sectors of the population to pursue its agenda.
Civic activism is stunted in Tajikistan and this apparent support for the government worried analysts.
A Dushanbe-based analyst who spoke to a Bulletin correspondent said: “The government knows that the Western states will not extradite opposition leaders to Tajikistan. Thus, they control the students and organise similar appeals and demonstrations to show the world that Tajik youth are politically active and there is democracy in Tajikistan.”
The government has stepped up its persecution of opposition groups this year, banning them and arresting activists. It wants opposition leaders extradited from Europe.
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(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)
OCT. 26 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan gave weapons to the Taliban in Afghanistan in exchange for freeing four Tajik soldiers, a senior Taliban leader interviewed by The Daily Beast said. The soldiers, captured in December 2014, were released in June. A Taliban leader allegedly travelled to Dushanbe for the deal. The Tajik government has not commented.
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(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)
OCT. 18 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan’s state-owned utility Barqi Tojik said it imposed seasonal rationing of electricity on rural areas on Oct. 18. Tajikistan wants to become a regional exporter of electricity but issues with its own power grid and growing consumption have curbed its ambitions.
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(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)
OCT. 23 2015, DUSHANBE (The Conway Bulletin) — The authorities in Tajikistan plan to demolish some of Dushanbe’s most striking buildings to make way for new developments, infuriating many people.
Specifically, city planners are eyeing up the Rohat teahouse — a tourist destination — two theatres, the former presidential administration and the current parliament building for demolition. All of the buildings lie on prime real estate in the city centre and were built during the early Soviet period.
Nurali Saidzoda, deputy head of architecture and construction committee, told Tajik media last week that the buildings selected for demolition are not unique.
“If you had seen the blueprints of what will be built in their places, you would say the same,” he said.
The Tajik authorities appear to have something of a fad for large construction projects and grandiose design. Over the past few years they have built the biggest library, biggest teahouse, and biggest mosque in the region.
But not everybody was happy. Grassroots activism is rare in Tajikistan but, even so, hundreds of people signed an online petition calling for the demolition to be scrapped.
Fotima, an old woman walking in central Dushanbe, said she was concerned about the future of the city.
“The buildings to be demolished carry the spirit of the city. The city will not be as the same as I remember it anymore,” she said.
Abdulfattoh Shafiev, a Dushanbe- based analyst, said the demolition plans was linked to business.
“Demolition of old Stalinist buildings in the Tajik capital is completely unrelated to any ideology and is simply a business idea to build new and bigger skyscrapers in the most valuable part of Dushanbe, down- town,” he said.
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(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)
OCT. 22 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Russian authorities declined to take responsibility for the death of Umarali Nazarov, a five-month old Tajik boy who died in police custody in St. Petersburg nine days earlier. Nazarov had been separated from his parents who were also detained. Tajikistan has lodged an official complaint about Nazarov’s death.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)
