Tag Archives: Tajikistan

Returning Tajik migrants pressure social systems

JAN. 29 2016, DUSHANBE (The Conway Bulletin) — A recession in Russia and the collapse of the rouble has slowed remittances to Tajikistan and forced thousands of migrant workers back home, pressuring jobs, resources and social infrastructure.

Last week, Russia’s migrant service said that there were only 863,000 Tajik workers in Russia, down by a third from last year.

Tajikistan, with its poor, agricultural economy, cannot absorb the increasing number of returning migrants.

Toshboltaev Bozorboy, a 50-year- old man, was one of the returnees. He arrived back in December and said

that he’s been unable to find a job since he flew back to Tajikistan.

“I used to work in construction sites in Moscow earning 20,000 roubles a month ($263) but there is still no other option for me except to leave for Russia,” he said.

The economic downturn started in mid-2014 when oil prices started to fall and Western-imposed sanctions on Russia started to bite. Remittances from workers abroad make up around half of Tajikistan’s GDP and the economic slowdown has had a huge impact. Most Tajiks who lost their jobs in Russia said they were unable to find new jobs in Tajikistan.

Firuz Iskandarov, 23, quit Russia in August 2014. He has been out of work since then.

“Since coming back from Russia, I have done some farming and selling fruits. But that is a seasonal work. I don’t know what we are going to do,” he said, his voice choking with emotion.

For the authorities, returning migrants are a serious issue. A migration expert in Dushanbe said: “For most it will be difficult to find a decent job, and they will not be able to provide for their families. And this can lead to an increase in domestic violence, suicide, and a deterioration in criminal situations in the country.”

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 265, published on Jan. 29 2016)

Thousands of migrant workers return to Tajikistan from Russia

JAN. 20 2016, DUSHANBE (The Conway Bulletin) — Hundreds of migrant workers are returning to Tajikistan everyday from Russia where an economic recession has destroyed once solid jobs.

At the international airport, flights from Russia were packed full of swathy, downcast young men dejectedly carrying their belongings in bags.

They told the same story.

They had moved to Moscow, or St Petersburg, or Yekaterinburg, or a host of other Russian cities, in search of work. The usual seasonal jobs, working in factories, on construction sites, cleaning roads. These jobs had seemed safe but a recession in Russia, triggered by a collapse in oil prices and sanctions imposed by the West, have wiped these out.

According to the Russian Federal Migration Service, there are now only 863,000 Tajik workers in Russia, down by nearly 30% from the 1.2m employed this time last year.

Idibek, a 24-year-old man, was standing outside the airport’s terminal building waiting for a friend to pick him up. He had just left his job in a St Petersburg chocolate factory.

“The money I earn is enough only for my living expenses in Russia,” he said.

“I used to make 30,000 roubles, which was around $800, and that was enough for me and my family in Tajikistan. Nowadays, the money I earn is a little bit more than $300.”

He didn’t know whether he would find any work now that he had returned to Tajikistan.

Russia’s economy is so important to Central Asia and the South Caucasus that its woes have hit its near-abroad like a tsunami and wreaked havoc.

Most currencies in the region have fallen by a third or half. Economic forecasts are down and Central Banks and governments are scrambling to rework budgets.

Tajikistan, with its reliance on remittances, is one of the countries hardest hit by the economic downturn in Russia. Its Central Bank has said remittances have dropped by around 40%, a heavy burden for the rest of the economy to shoulder.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 264, published on Jan. 22 2016)

Editorial: Tajikistan’s remittances

JAN. 22 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – When it comes to worker remittances from abroad, Tajikistan is the most heavily reliant country in the world.

Transfers from migrant workers, mostly residing in Russia, made up 42% of the country’s GDP in 2014.

But the economic downturn in Russia, which sent the rouble to its historical lowest against the dollar this week, and tougher border controls and regulations have made the life of many Tajiks impossible in Russian cities. Their return en masse to Tajikistan will undoubtedly put pressure on the local job market, which isn’t flourishing either, and also strain the Tajik somoni.

This week, Georgia also published remittances data, highlighting a 39% fall in transfers from Russia.

Together with shrinking trade turnover data, low remittances volumes are a barometer of the worsening economic environment across the entire former Soviet Union. They also underscore Russia’s role as the engine-room of economies in the former Soviet Union.

ENDS

(Editorial from Issue No. 264, published on Jan. 22 2016)

Stock market: Tethys, KAZ Minerals, Centerra

JAN. 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Tethys shares dropped to their lowest price since listing in 2011, falling 18% over the last week to 1.75p. Our graph shows its fall since the start of December.

Problems at its operations in Tajikistan may have dented investors’ confidence. China’s CNPC and France’s Total, its partners in the Bokhtar oil project, have said they want Tethys to exit the venture.

Last week, also, the Tajik government joined the fray and said it might expropriate 25% of the licensed area, as production hasn’t started yet.

Commodities prices were stable, after months of depreciation against the US dollar. But this has not helped all miners in the region. In fact, Centerra shares fell, due to the ongoing controversy with its Mongolian operations. On the upside, KAZ Minerals continued its upward trend, thanks to the continued depreciation of the Kazakh tenge. Its costs are in tenge. Its earnings in US dollars.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 264, published on Jan. 22 2016)

Tajik authorities tighten internet access

JAN. 15 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajik president Emomali Rakhmon signed a decree forcing all internet traffic into Tajikistan to pass through a single entry point controlled by state-run Tajiktelecom, media reported. The authorities in Tajikistan regularly turn off access to social media websites which they say are being used by Islamic radicals to infiltrate Tajik society.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 264, published on Jan. 22 2016)

Tajik police shaves 13000 beards

JAN. 19 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – In 2015, officials in Tajikistan shaved off beards on nearly 13,000 men, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported quoting a police press conference. The police described the purge as a war against excessive Islamic influences in the country. Tajikistan has said constantly over the past few years that Islamic radicals pose a real threat to its security. Rights activists have said this is simply another way of imposing control.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 264, published on Jan. 22 2016)

Tajikistan says it’s unhappy with progress on oil and gas field

DUSHANBE, JAN. 12 2016, (The Conway Bulletin) — The Tajik government said it was dissatisfied with the progress of the Bokhtar Operating Company, a joint venture between Tethys Petroleum, Total and CNPC which is exploring the country’s most promising oil field.

Murod Jumazoda, head of the government’s Geology Department, said the consortium was developing the site too slowly and that this could result in the government seizing 25% of the licensed area.

“They [the companies forming the joint venture] will have to return 25% of the oil and gas exploration area to the government this year,” Mr Jumazoda said at a press conference.

According to Tajik law, the government has the right to take back up to 25% of a licensed oil and gas area that has failed to produce within seven years of the license being granted. But Tethys, which is listed on the London stock exchange, disagreed with the government’s interpretation of the law.

“The first relinquishment is not due until 2020,” a PR agency speaking on behalf of Tethys told The Conway Bulletin.

This may become controversial as it was in 2008 that the Tajik government awarded Tethys an exploration licence to explore a 36,000 square km area around 100km south of Dushanbe for oil and gas.

But, and this is probably what Tethys’ PR agency was alluding to, the present composition of the Bokhtar Operating Company, owned by Tethys Petroleum, CNPC and Total, was finalised in 2013.

According to Tethys’ calculations, the field holds around 27.5b barrels of oil equivalent of recoverable resources. For Tajikistan, which is resource poor, this is a tantalising prospect.

Tethys is the lead operator of the Bokhtar Operating Company.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 263, published on Jan. 15 2016)

Currencies: Azerbaijan’s manat, Kazakhstan’s tenge

JAN. 15 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — In Azerbaijan, people took to the streets to protest against inflation and unemployment. The manat grew slightly to 1.58/$1, but what angers people most is the increase in prices, especially for imported goods.

In Kazakhstan, the tenge depreciated further to 366/$1, a 6% drop on the previous week. Many worry now that there could be no end to the downward spiral.

In Tajikistan, the somoni lost an additional 2% this week, trading at 7.38/$1. The currency slide in the country doesn’t seem to slow.

In Kyrgyzstan the Central Bank has kept the som stable at 75.9/$1 by intervening several times in the currency market. The Georgian Central Bank also protected the lari with a few interventions. In Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, the governments imposed further restrictions on the trade of foreign currencies, by limiting licenses to banks, airports and, in Azerbaijan’s case, hotels.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 263, published on Jan. 15 2016)

Stock market: Centerra Gold, Central Asia Metals

JAN. 15 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Mining companies in Central Asia had different experiences this week.

In Toronto, Centerra Gold shares fell 6.6% to 7.01 Canadian dollars. The company’s optimistic results published on Jan. 11 gave its shares a short-lived boost at the beginning of the week, but the continuation of the row with the Kyrgyz government may be eroding investors’ confidence.

Kazakhstan-focused Central Asia Metals lost 8.2% in the week, but closed on an upward note at 128.75p on Thursday. Against this trend, KAZ Minerals gained 5% this week, closing at 94.5p.

Oil and gas companies continued to suffer through the lowest oil prices in a decade, now heading below $30/barrel. Tethys Petroleum, which had financial troubles in its operations in Tajikistan, lost 26% in London to close at 2.13p on Thursday. In the past week, Nostrum Oil & Gas shares lost 8.4% to 329.9p. Roxi Petroleum also lost 12.3% to close at 7.13p.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 263, published on Jan. 15 2016)

Tajikistan cancels pay rise

JAN. 11 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Tajik government has cancelled a planned pay rise for state workers, media reported. With inflation rising and the value of its somoni currency falling, the Tajik government had planned the pay rise to boost morale, and loyalty, amongst its staff just before an election last year. With the election fading into memory and an economic slowdown taking a stronger and firmer grip, it appears to have been decided that the pay rise was no longer needed.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 263, published on Jan. 15 2016)