Tag Archives: Tajikistan

Editorial: Tajik electricity production

JUNE 24 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon said that he wanted to triple Tajikistan’s power generation capacity to around 45b kWh/year by 2030.

This is a long-term projection, and plenty can happen over the next 14 years, especially in Tajikistan, but it is still an important one. It is important because it shows the impact that the World Bank sponsored CASA-1000 project is having on the aspirations of Tajikistan.

Tajikistan needs to boost its exports and electricity production, through its network of hydropower stations, has emerged as the only real way of doing this. Gold production, while increasing, is still low, hopes of an oil boom spurred by the discovery of Bokhtar field have fallen flat.

But CASA-1000 has encouraged positive talk of a boom in power generation in Tajikistan. It’s important, too, to credit Tajikistan, over Kyrgyzstan, of being hard-headed about power generation. It will supply the lion’s share of the power for the CASA-1000 project, which will send electricity across Afghanistan to Pakistan, and plans to boost its power generation capacity even further show that the potential is there for more.

ENDS

(Editorial from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

Tajik ministers swear oath of allegiance

JUNE 22 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Under new rules, government ministers in Tajikistan will have to swear an oath of allegiance to President Emomali Rakhmon, media reported. The new rule will further boost the perceived power of Mr Rakhmon. He has been accused of building a personality cult.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

CNPC and Total start arbitration against Tethys over Tajikistan delays

DUSHANBE, JUNE 20 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — China’s CNPC and France’s Total have started arbitration proceedings against Tethys Petroleum, a British oil company focused on Central Asia, for failing to make payments to their joint oil project in Tajikistan.

Tension has been rising between Tethys and its partners at the Bokhtar oil field over the perceived slow progress of its development. Earlier this year, the Tajik government said that it would take back the 25% stake in the Bokhtar field that Tethys, CNPC and Total were developing if progress wasn’t speeded up.

Last year Tethys, the lead partner, missed two payments towards the Bokhtar field. Like the rest of the oil industry, Tethys has been hit by the sharp fall in oil prices over the past year. At the start of this year it was forced to patch together a deal with Olisol, a Kazakh oil company.

In a wide-ranging statement that discussed various parts of its business, Tethys said that CNPC and Total had filed their lawsuit against its subsidiary, Kulob Petroleum, at the International Court of Arbitration in Paris in May. Tethys, CNPC and Total each own one-third of the Bokhtar licence.

“The filed arbitration request is in relation to the Notice of Dispute received by Kulob Petroleum on Jan. 8 2016,” it said in a comment on the press release. Neither CNPC nor Total have commented.

The reference to Jan. 8 was to a notice that CNPC and Total filed against Tethys for breaking the terms of production sharing agreement (PSA) at the Bokhtar development.

For Tajikistan, the disagreements and delays to developing the Bokhtar field are a major disappointment. When Tajikistanagreed the deal to develop a 36,000 square km area in 2013, optimism was high that the development would deliver some of the hydrocarbon wealth it has watched neighbouring Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan grow rich off.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

Auchan opens hypermarket in Tajik capital, its first in Central Asia

DUSHANBE, JUNE 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — French hypermarket brand Auchan opened its first store in Tajikistan to local acclaim with crowds of residents thronging to the shop, which has been built on the side of a new shopping mall.

The hypermarket, one of 3,000 Auchan shops around the world and the first in Central Asia, was built by France’s Schiever Group.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) also invested 5m euros. According to the EBRD, Tajik people buy products from small shops and at high prices, and building a new hypermarket offers them a new alternative.

The opening of Auchan is also a boost for President Emomali Rakhmon who is under increasing pressure because of the country’s poor economic performance over the past few months.

The currency has dropped in value, inflation has risen and jobs have disappeared.

The four-storey Dushanbe Mall, home to the new Auchan store, has been built next to the headquarters of Tojiksodirotbank, one of the country’s biggest banks. This year, Tojiksodirotbank went into administration.

And Tajiks were excited at the prospect of shopping at the hypermarket. “Everything was good. Some products were cheaper than at street shops,” said Malika, 45.

Others were more skeptical.

“Many say that people do not have any money but look at how crowded this place has become,” said Sharif, a 38-years-old NGO worker.

“As time passes, though, less and less people will come.”

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(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

Business comment: BREXIT, Oil & Crisis

JUNE 24 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – As the results of the referendum on Britain’s EU membership came in early on Friday, the decision to leave the EU has shaken the global market.

The Leave vote has hit the London stock market, where most of the companies focusing on Central Asia and the South Caucasus are listed. Economists now expect more volatility in the short term for the London Stock Exchange.

The so-called Brexit also negatively affected oil prices, sending both Brent and WTI down by 6% in just a few hours. Analysts have said that the period of uncertainty regarding oil prices will now last longer.

Currency markets were also hit, as the British pound lost value against the US dollar, effectively strengthening the greenback.

This had an immediate domino effect on currencies across Central Asia and the South Caucasus, where local currencies weakened against the US dollar.

The increasing uncertainty and volatility is now poised to harm, at least in the short term, local markets in the region, prompting elites in from Tbilisi to Astana to brace for more tough times. It will also hit global markets in general, forcing investors to flee to safety and this means missing out Central Asia and the South Caucasus.

Now both the Fed in the US and the Bank of England will have to revise their economic policies and this is likely to insulate further their economies and pull investment back from Emerging Markets.

In these uncertain times, countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus cannot but hope that Western investors will go against the tide and continue investing in the region.

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(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

Tajik President sets power output goal

JUNE 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon said electricity generation in his country will grow by three times by 2030. Mr Rakhmon set the power output goal at 45b kWh/year, compared to 17b kWh last year. In addition, Mr Rakhmon said the country’s export potential will grow to 10b kWh/year. Tajikistan is tasked with generating most of the electricity for the CASA-1000 power transmission line to Pakistan.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

Skyland starts production in Tajikistan

JUNE 19 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Australia’s Skyland Petroleum said it started operations at its first well at the Kyzyl-Tumshuk oil and gas field in southern Tajikistan. Skyland has actively operated across Central Asia and the South Caucasus. Skyland said the Kyzyl Tumshuk project was started below budget and will be profitable despite low oil prices.

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(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

Tajikistan releases Rahmon rival

JUNE 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Yakub Salimov, former Tajik interiorminister and renowned warlord and smuggler, was released from jail after serving a 13-year sentence for plotting a coup in the 1990s.Mr Salimov, one of President Emomali Rakhmon’s biggest opponents, was charged in 1998 but fled the country. He was finally detained in Russia in 2003 and later extradited to Tajikistan.

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(News report from Issue No. 286, published on June 24 2016)

EEU plans single electricity market, say energy ministers after meeting in Tajikistan

JUNE 14 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Eurasian Economic Union, a trade bloc led by Russia but also involving Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia plans to set up a unified electricity market by 2019, EEU members’ energy ministers said after a meeting in Dushanbe. Tajikistan aspires to be part of the EEU, which critics have said is a Kremlin project to extend its control.

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(News report from Issue No. 285, published on June 17 2016)

Tajikistan’s TSB resumes transactions

JUNE 10 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tojiksodirotbonk, Tajikistan’s second largest lender, said it resumed money transfer transactions, and that it continued to operate under the administration of the Central Bank. TSB, as it is commonly known, is awaiting confirmation from the EBRD for a funding lifeline of around $165m. The investment would give the EBRD a 25% stake in the bank.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 285, published on June 17 2016)