Tag Archives: Tajikistan

Comment: C.Asia and S.Caucasus eye up a Trump presidency, says Kilner

NOV. 11 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Donald Trump, the incoming US president, has a long list of issues that need tackling in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, not least the dominance of China and Russia.

Central Asia, in particular, has traditionally been an arena where the world’s great powers have shadow-boxed, testing each other’s strengths and weaknesses. This is just as true today as it was during the 19th century’s Great Game between Russia and Britain. Now, though, China has entered the fray and the West is led by the US and not Britain.

Since NATO withdrew most of its forces from Afghanistan in 2013/14, US interest in Central Asia has waned and it has ceded diplomatic, economic and cultural influence to Russia and China.

When she was Secretary of State between 2009 and 2013, Hillary Clinton promoted a new north-south Silk Road running from Central Asia to India. This was to be US soft power in action, a commercial push to rival influences exerted by China through its loans and by Russia through its diplomatic and energy levers. It hasn’t shaped up to much, and Clinton wont now be able to see it through, but Trump, a businessman and reality TV star, may be well-placed to invigorate this north-south Silk Road.

Governments in Central Asia and the South Caucasus will also be watching his policies on NATO, Russia and Iran.

Georgia has, perhaps, the most to be concerned about. It has struck out on a determinedly Western direction and needs a strong US and NATO as a counterpoint to Russia. If the US’ commitment to NATO wanes, Georgia will be more vulnerable to Russian aggression. Certainly its two breakaway states, Russia-backed Abkhazia and South Ossetia, will feel emboldened.

Barack Obama brought Iran back into the international community by partly lifting sanctions linked to the development of its nuclear sector. Its reemergence was heralded in Central Asia and the South Caucasus as an opportunity. They will be looking to a US led by Trump to boost, and not deflate, Iran’s place in the world. They want Iran to be an economic driver.

And the US’ relationship with Russia is important too. If US-Russia relations don’t improve, and the Russian economy continues to shrink, this filters through to Central Asia and the South Caucasus.

They will be looking for an improvement in US- Russia relations to generate a boost for the Russian economy.

By James Kilner, Editor, The Conway Bulletin

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(News report from Issue No. 304, published on Nov. 11 2016)

Tajiks and Russian resolve aviation row

NOV. 7 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Tajik aviation authority agreed to give Russia’s Ural Air a licence to fly from Moscow’s Zhukovsky airport to Dushanbe and Khujand, dampening a row that had been intensifying. Last week, after Tajikistan’s initial refusal to allow flights from Zhukovsky, Russia’s aviation committee threatened to cut air links with Tajikistan. Under the new agreement, Tajikistan also won permission to open new routes to Ufa, Chelyabinsk and Barnaul.

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(News report from Issue No. 304, published on Nov. 11 2016)

Georgia and regional governments welcome Trump election win

TBILISI, NOV. 5 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Governments across Central Asia and the South Caucasus welcomed Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election on Nov. 4 and heralded it as an opportunity for the US to increase its engagement in the region.

Analysts have said that under President Barack Obama, the US’ interest in Central Asia and the South Caucasus has dropped. Both President Obama’s Secretary of States, Hillary Clinton and John Kerry, visited the South Caucasus and Central Asia but since the US and NATO pulled most of its forces out of neighbouring Afghanistan in 2013 and 2014, its interest has waned.

The only US president to have visited the region was George W. Bush in May 2005. He visited Tbilisi when Mikheil Saakashvili was president. Georgia is the US’ biggest ally in the region, sending its army to fight in both Iraq and Afghanistan and Georgian PM Giorgi Kvirikashvili welcomed Mr Trump’s win.

“I would like to extend my sincere congratulations to Donald J. Trump on his victory in the presidential elections,” he said. “American people voted for change, oriented on making US even stronger.”

His sentiments were echoed by other regional leaders but reaction on the street was less clear cut. In Almaty Aidana Omarova, a university lecturer, said she was appalled that Mr Trump had won the election.

“I cannot even imagine how such a sexist, racist and rude person can lead the US,” she said.

In Tbilisi Nana, a lawyer, was worried. “He wants to improve relations with Russia, that’s not very good for Georgia, in case we need support from the US,” she said. “Secondly he was extremely negative about immigrants and I know there are lots of Georgians who work in America and send money to their families.”

But in Dushanbe, Jakhongir, 29, a website developer, had a different viewpoint. He said the US election had been a great democratic exercise.

“I wish we could have such interesting elections debates here in Tajikistan, too,” he said. “Let’s see how Trump will behave, I think he will be more restrained in his words and actions now.”

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(News report from Issue No. 304, published on Nov. 11 2016)

Grounded flights in Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan

NOV. 11 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Air traffic in Central Asia and the South Caucasus continues to suffer from the regional economic slump, as major international carriers cut flights and leave the market to fickle domestic players.

Most notably this year, British Airways cut its London-Baku link, the last remaining destination for the British flag carrier in the region. The connection had lasted over 20 years, ever since BP started to negotiate the so-called Contract of the Century.

Demand for air transport, however, has shrunk, especially in the business market. Low

commodity prices have made many regional business unprofitable. This, added together with some damaging reputational issues, such as the delisting of Kazakhstan’s ENRC from the London Stock Exchange, have made many Western businesses wary of the region.

So it’s not surprising that Turkish Airlines dropped its connections with Osh and Khujand when it decided to downsize its global network because of a drop in demand. The second-largest cities in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan just cannot make the cut for commercially viable air links.

Turkmenistan’s new flights to Georgia were also postponed indefinitely this week, a sign that even diplomatically-motivated aviation routes need to be profitable.

On the positive, the Russian and Tajik aviation committees agreed a deal to end their short-lived dispute over routes. This is important, vitally important, for Tajikistan’s migrant workforce who rely so heavily on Russia for their income.

Air routes have become part of a modern-day annual commute for people in developing countries, needed to carry them to waiting jobs.

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(News report from Issue No. 304, published on Nov. 11 2016)

Turkish cuts flights to Tajik and Kyrgyz cities

NOV. 8 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkish Airlines, Turkey’s flagship carrier, dropped Osh, Kyrgyzstan’s second-largest city, and Khujand, a major city in northern Tajikistan, as destinations in a global revision of its connections. Turkish said it was suspending flights to 22 destinations and making around 30 aircrafts redundant in an effort to focus only on profitable routes.

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(News report from Issue No. 304, published on Nov. 11 2016)

WHO says Kyrgyzstan is free of malaria

NOV. 11 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — >> I’ve just read that the World Health Organisation (WHO) has declared Kyrgyzstan to be free of malaria. Is this important? What does this mean?

>>Put simply, it means that Kyrgyzstan has done a good job at stamping out malaria. To be declared free of malaria, a country has to prove that there have been no cases for three consecutive years. It’s good PR for Kyrgyzstan and should make it a more attractive destination for tourists to visit. It’s an image thing. Malaria was never a major problem in Kyrgyzstan but publicity from WHO about combating it will go down well.

>> Got it. You say that it wasn’t a major problem but how serious was malaria in Kyrgyzstan, then?

>> It had been more or less stamped out under the Soviet Union, mainly due to industrialisation and living standards rising, but it re-appeared in the 1990s. This was a tough period, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, with the economy performing badly. There were very few jobs in Kyrgyzstan and healthcare was underfunded. Migrant workers brought malaria back to Kyrgyzstan and in 2002, it suffered what the WHO described as a “malaria epidemic” with 2,700 reported cases. Backed by the WHO, the Kyrgyz government ran a malaria eradication strategy which targeted improving healthcare and strengthening awareness of the disease. By 2011, the number of malaria cases reported to have been picked up in Kyrgyzstan was three, dropping to zero in 2012. The campaign has been a success.

>> Does this all mean that Kyrgyzstan has become something of a WHO poster-boy in Central Asia?

>>Not exactly. It still has plenty of issues to deal with such as high rates of alcohol consumption and smoking, as well as HIV and tuberculosis problems. These issues are generally shared with other countries in the former Soviet Union. Public health in the region is always going to be a continual battle.

>> And what about the other countries in the region?

>> Kazakhstan has also been declared malaria-free and the number of cases in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan has fallen dramatically. Both are on course to achieving the WHO’s malaria-free certificate. For Tajikistan, in particular, this would be a major achievement. At its peak in 1997, Tajikistan reported nearly 30,000 new cases of malaria. Last year it reported zero cases and the WHO has said that it is on course to achieve malaria-free status. This is a good news story from Central Asia. Eradicating malaria will save lives and take the strain off the health sector. Of course, it may reappear but for now, malaria is being defeated in the region. The WHO has no data for Turkmenistan.

>> That’s impressive. So, is it all good news for Central Asia’s healthcare system?

>> No. While malaria may be being beaten, other diseases are still a problem. Kazakhstan reports seasonal outbreaks of the bubonic plague. These are localised and transmitted by fleas living off infected rodents. One or two people die each year from the disease but it has never threatened to become widespread. In Tajikistan, polio, which was thought to have been eradicated, was reported in the south of the country in 2011. In total, nearly 500 people were reported to be infected and the WHO declared an epidemic. At least 29 people died before the outbreak was brought under control six months later. In Kyrgyzstan, also, there have been recent public health scares. This included an outbreak of measles in 2015. Out of 22,000 recorded in the wider Europe region that year, a third were in Kyrgyzstan

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(News report from Issue No. 304, published on Nov. 11 2016)

Tajikistan bans newspaper

NOV. 4 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Tajik Indem think tank suspended the print edition of its Nigoh newspaper under pressure from the authorities. The independent media scene has shrunk in Tajikistan in recent years. Nigoh was known for its support of the now banned Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan.

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(News report from Issue No. 304, published on Nov. 11 2016)

Tajik President opens new steel plant

NOV. 5 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon inaugurated a new steel plant in the city of Hisor, in western Tajikistan. The plant, which cost 250m somoni ($31.8m) to build, will produce between 100,000 and 200,000 tonnes of steel and other metals. Faroz, a construction company, will be the plant’s main customer.

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(News report from Issue No. 304, published on Nov. 11 2016)

US embassy in Dushanbe warns of attacks

NOV. 9 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The US embassy in Dushanbe issued a warning that Islamic militants were planning to attack large gatherings and kidnap people near the border with Afghanistan.

It said US citizens should avoid crowds and refrain from camping near the border.

“Terrorist groups may attempt to target large public gatherings and/or border crossings with Afghanistan,” it said in a statement.

The warnings comes a month after a similar warning was released in Kyrgyzstan. Governments in Central Asia have been worried both by a rise in the intensity of recruitment drives by the IS extremist group and by the encroachment north of the Taliban.

The US embassy did not give any more details of the threats or what had triggered the warning.

Media later quoted an official from the Tajik government as saying that the warning was overblown and that there was no threat to Tajiks or foreigners.

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(News report from Issue No. 304, published on Nov. 11 2016)

Russia threatens Tajikistan over flights

NOV. 3 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Russia could suspend flight connections with Tajikistan next week, if the countries fail to reach an agreement on flights originating from the new Zhukovsky airport in Moscow, TASS quoted unnamed Russian government sources as saying. Tajikistan’s Aviation Committee had refused to grant permission to companies that operated out of Zhukovsky. Delegations from both governments met in Kyrgyzstan to negotiate a deal, but failed to reach an agreement.

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(News report from Issue No. 303, published on Nov. 4 2016)