SEPT. 23 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – >> Economic stagnation, an unpopular president, a new PM and demonstrations over the summer in favour of a group of gunmen who captured a police station. Is Armenian in something of a crises?
>> You could certainly say that. It’s been a torrid 12 months for President Serzh Sargsyan, starting with demonstrations in the summer of 2015 against proposed electricity price rises. The government said that it had to introduce price rises to counter a fall in the value of the Armenian dram and a general economic downturn. Ordinary people, though, clearly weren’t prepared to stomach the price rise. They took to the streets and faced down the police, forcing the Armenian government to drop its price increase. The incident damaged Sargsyan and the then PM Hovik Abrahamian.
Since then, though, things have gotten worse. The economic just hasn’t picked up. There’s been something of a dead cat bounce in Armenia. It just hasn’t lifted and people are getting frustrated. This and the botched handling of the siege and hostage scenario at a police station in the capital in July contributed to Abrahamian having to quit as PM. He had only been in the job for two years.
Don’t forget, too, fighting in the Armenia-controlled region of Nagorno-Karabakh in April when Azerbaijan rolled in its tanks. The outbreak of fighting appeared to take the Armenia’s leadership by surprise, again embarrassing Sargsyan.
>> And how has this impacted Sargsyan?
>> His authority has definitely been affected. Sargsyan has never been wildly popular among ordinary Armenians. He’s won a couple of elections but both have been disputed and turnouts have been modest. In 2008, when he won his first presidential election, police shot dead at least 15 protesters after anti-Sargsyan protesters had taken over the main squares in Yerevan for a couple of weeks. Part of Sargsyan’s problem is an image problem. He comes across as cold and aloof. His power base is also centred on Nagorno-Karabakh, where he is from, and people suspect that he favours this clique. He’s certainly enriched his family and friends as president. The recent turmoil, and especially the stagnant economy, will only undermine his standing further.
>> Does this mean that Armenia’s opposition have a chance of taking over?
>> It’ll be very difficult for them. Sargsyan has the power of the Republican Party behind him. This is a formidable election machine as was shown in regional election when despite all the problems it still won just over half the local elections held on Sept. 18. Still, there was a wobble. The Republican Party lost 30 of these local elections, considered a blow to its prestige and clout.
>> And the new PM, Karen Karapetyan, how does he feed into all this?
>> Karapetyan is seasoned operator. He used to be the mayor of Yerevan, one of the most high profile jobs in the country, and was also an executive at the local branch of Gazprom. This means that he is already well- known to Russian officials, very important to Armenia which relies on Russia as one of its few allies.
His brother is Samvel who is one of the richest Armenians. He owns a property empire in Moscow and last year rode to the rescue of the Armenian government by buying the national electricity distribution company after the government backed down from angry protesters who didn’t want to pay a price rise.
The appointment of Karapetyan, puts his family at the centre of Armenian politics. This is the power duo to watch in Armenia. Sargsyan, who is eligible to run in a presidential election set for 2018, is increasingly reliant on the Karapetyans.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 297, published on Sept. 23 2016)