Tag Archives: politics

Uzbekistan cancels move to scrap visas

JAN. 9 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbekistan cancelled plans to drop visa requirements for tourists only a few weeks after President Shavkat Mirziyoyev surprised people by promising to open up the notoriously hard-to-enter country.

The US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty website reported that Uzbekistan’s official legislation website had published a document delaying by four years the introduction of the visa-free regime for tourists. The document had been signed Mr Mirziyoyev.

In December he had said that tourists from Western countries would be allowed to enter the country for up to 30 days without a visa.

Kate Mallinson, a London-based Central Asia analyst, said that the change of plan on the tourists’ visa- free regime hinted at a power struggle within the Uzbek system.

“The Uzbek government’s volte face on allowing visa free entry highlights the continuing leverage of the hidden state and all-powerful security services, the SNB,” she said.

“The SNB fiercely scrutinises entry of foreigners into the country and will have challenged this move which would have significantly undermined its control.”

Uzbekistan has one of the most tightly controlled visa regimes in the world.

Mr Mirziyoyev’s move to relax it appeared linked to the increased openness after the death in September of Pres. Islam Karimov. Karimov had ruled since the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union and was regarded by many as a harsh autocrat.

Since taking over as president, Mr Mirziyoyev has improved ties with Uzbekistan’s neighbours and promised to improve the country’s business environment.

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(News report from Issue No. 312, published on Jan. 13 2017)

Georgian court releases Saakashvili ally

JAN. 6 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — A court in Tbilisi released the city’s former mayor Gigi Ugulava from prison after reducing his sentence for embezzlement and corruption. Mr Ugulava had been an ally of former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili. His arrest and prosecution in 2013 brought criticism against the Georgian Dream government coalition, which won an election in 2012, that it was using the courts to settle vendettas.

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(News report from Issue No. 312, published on Jan. 13 2017)

A new mayor of Tajik Capital

JAN. 13 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — >> I read on page 6 that Tajik president Emomali Rakhmon has made his son the mayor of Dushanbe. Why has he done this?

>> Essentially it looks as if this is a continuation of a process that has been happening for some time. Rakhmon, who has been in power since the mid 1990s, is thinking about succession and this means handing over power to his son, Rustam Emomali. Last year, Pres. Rakhmon forced through changes to Tajikistan’s constitution that should make it easier for his son to take over. A pliant parliament voted to approve changes which mean that both Rakhmon and his son will be eligible to run in a 2020 election.

>> How is the rule on presidential candidates being over 35-years-old important?

>> Put simply, it looks as if Rakhmon is hedging his bets with these constitutional changes. Rakhmon will be 68-years-old when the next presidential election comes along in Tajikistan, probably in November 2020. He may not be in the best health then and may want to give up governing. If he does, dropping the 35- year-old minimum age rule allows his son, Rustam, to stand. Rustam will be 32-years-old in Nov. 2020.

>> And the mayoral position in Dushanbe?

>> This is an important position in Tajikistan. All the country’s wealth is situated in Dushanbe. Apartment prices on Rudaki, the main avenue running through Dushanbe, are among the most expensive in the region. Rustam Emomali will also be given a sizeable budget to manage, with all its challenges and pitfalls. This is like- for-like training for the top job.

>> What has Rustam Emomali done before this?

>> He’s had a few serious jobs in Tajikistan. He has previously been the head of the country’s customs service and its main anti-corruption agency, the Agency for State Financial Control. Rustam Emomali also has an international profile as he is head of Tajikistan’s football federation. A keen footballer, he used to play centre forward for one of Tajikistan’ s top football clubs.

>> How have international organisations reacted to the promotion of Rustam Emomali as mayor of Dushanbe?

>> Predictably, many of the Western groups are frustrated. They have said for a while that Pres. Rakhmon is acting in an increasingly autocratic manner. Promoting his son to such an important position, to them, confirms this. It also builds on the feeling that Rakhmon is acting as a control freak. Tajikistan’s opposition have been hounded and imprisoned, news websites and social media are often shut down for spurious reasons. This said, security-conscious regional governments are far less likely to be bothered about the grooming of Rakhmon’s son to take over from him.

>> So, what next?

>> Keep a close eye on Rakhmon’s health and also how Rustam Emomali is perceived to perform as mayor of Dushanbe. It’s a position where, if he slips up, he can make enemies. And, the nearer the 2020 election get, the more attention you need to pay to just how Pres. Rakhmon and his son, Rustam, are positioning themselves. The opposition has been hollowed out so whatever they decide between themselves will fly.

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(News report from Issue No. 312, published on Jan. 13 2017)

An Azeri go-between emerges for Trump-Putin

JAN. 13 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — A dossier produced by a former British spy detailing how Russian president Vladimir Putin had developed links with incoming US president Donald Trump has shocked the Washington political establishment.

The report, published online by the Buzzfeed news website on Jan. 10, also detailed how Russia has gathered enough evidence of Trump’s alleged bribery and sexual escapades that it was now able to blackmail him.

Trump has called the dossier a pack of lies but what is undeniable is the assertion in the dossier that Araz Agalarov, an ethnic Azerbaijani billionaire with strong links to both the Kremlin and to Azerbaijan’s president Ilham Aliyev, plays a key link role with Trump.

One memo sent by the British spy to his Washington client quoted sources in St Petersburg saying that Trump had visited the city, taken part in sex parties and paid bribes for real estate deals. The memo didn’t offer much in the way of direct evidence to corroborate these allegations, and it has to be repeated that Trump has denied everything.

On Agalarov, though, it did offer this aside: “The two St Petersburg figures cited believe an Azeri business figure Araz Agalarov (with offices in Baku and London) had been closely involved with Trump in Russia and would know most of the details of what the Republican candidate had got up to there.”

Agalarov has also been credited with bringing Trump’s Miss Universe contest to Moscow in 2013 and agreeing to build a Trump Tower.

In short, Agalarov has emerged as a key figure in the Trump-Putin story. Worth an estimated $1.3b, Agalarov splits his time between Moscow, London and Baku. His main business interest is the Russia-based Crocus, which started organising and hosting exhibitions in post-Soviet Moscow, before moving into real estate and owning shopping malls.

In many ways, the 62-year-old Agalarov is a good foil for Trump in the former Soviet Union. He can match Trump on bravado and business interests but cuts a more sophisticated figure.

He is friends with Putin and is also close to Azerbaijan’s president Aliyev. His musician son, Emin, was married to Aliyev’s daughter Leyla until their divorce in 2015. Agalarov and Aliyev, though, share two twin grandsons through the marriage.

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(News report from Issue No. 312, published on Jan. 13 2017)

Saakashvili’s United National Movement party splits up in Georgia

TBILISI, JAN. 12 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Three months after a humiliating parliamentary election defeat the once mighty United National Movement party (UNM) appears to be in its final death throes.

Putting an end to months of speculation, 21 MPs from the UNM said that they were breaking away to form a new party.

Gigi Ugulava, the MPs’ unofficial leader, said the UNM was too heavily tarnished by its links to former president Mikheil Saakahsvili.

“One person is responsible for dismantling the party, the person, who established the party,” media quoted him as saying, referring to Mr Saakashvili.

Mr Ugulava is an ex-mayor of Tbilisi. He was only released from prison a week earlier, where he had been serving a sentence for bribe-taking.

At a parliamentary election, UNM won just 27 seats of 150 seats, down from 65 seats in the 2012 election. Its great rivals, the Georgian Dream won 115 seats, up from 85.

Mr Saakashvili, Georgian president from 2004 until 2013 who counted George W. Bush as a friend, has been living in exile since leaving office in 2013. He had been hoping that a UNM victory at the election would allow him to return to Georgia.

He responded to the breakup of the party from his base in Ukraine in his usual bombastic fashion.

“Everyone saw the amount of defectors today and everyone will see the strength and the amount of the United National Movement at its January 20 congress,” he said on Facebook.

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(News report from Issue No. 312, published on Jan. 13 2017)

Kazakh President hints at changing constitution

ALMATY, JAN. 11 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev hinted that he would change the country’s constitution to redistribute power from the presidential office to parliament and other executives bodies.

No details were given of Mr Nazarbayev’s plans but it does appear to be an attempt to smooth the transition of power. Mr Nazarbayev has not named a successor and analysts have been left wondering just how he is going to manage the transition.

Since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Mr Nazarbayev has amassed great power, tinkering with the constitution several times.

He may be aiming to reduce the power of the president to set up a system which distributes influence between roles more evenly.

This is a pattern set by some of Kazakhstan’s regional neighbours. Kyrgyzstan has boosted the power of the PM’s office, as has Georgia in the South Caucasus.

One of the favourites to succeed Mr Nazarbayev is his eldest daughter Dariga.

Other high-ranking Kazakhs touted as potential future leaders include Imangali Tasmagambetov, a deputy prime minister and Timur Kulibayev, Mr Nazarbayev’s son-in- law and the husband of Dinara Nazarbayeva.

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(News report from Issue No. 312, published on Jan. 13 2017)

Kazakh police arrest ex-economy minister

ALMATY, JAN. 10 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Police in Kazakhstan arrested the former economy minister, Kuandyk Bishimbayev, for alleged links to a corruption scheme at the country’s state-owned Baiterek holding company.

Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev sacked Mr Bishimbayev, 36, as economy minister on Dec. 28.

He had only been in the job since May. for the previous three years he had been chairman of Baiterek holding company which administers the state’s shareholdings in various companies.

Several senior executives at Baiterek have been arrested over the past few weeks on bribe-taking allegations. The main focus is Baiterek Development, the holding company’s real estate unit.

Kazakhstan has been hit by several high-profile corruption scandals in the past year.

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(News report from Issue No. 312, published on Jan. 13 2017)

Kazakh President unveils new monument

DEC. 16 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev unveiled a new monument in Astana to mark the 25th anniversary of independence from the Soviet Union. He ignored the fifth anniversary of the shooting dead of at least 15 people by police during riots in the western city of Zhanaozen.

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(News report from Issue No. 310, published on Dec. 23 2016)

Paris court frees Kazakh President’s enemy Ablyazov from jail

DEC. 9-13 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Days after a court in Paris freed former Kazakh banker Mukhtar Ablyazov from jail, the self-styled opposition figure promised to reignite his campaign to topple Kazakhstan’s long-running leader Nursultan Nazarbayev.

The Paris court had overturned an order to extradite Mr Ablyazov to Russia because of concerns that he would be tortured and then handed over to Kazakhstan. Mr Nazarbayev has viewed Mr Ablyazov as his number one enemy and wanted to see him tried in a Kazakh court for plotting a coup.

Mr Ablyazov, though, walked out of prison in Paris, three years after his arrest in the south of France. In an interview with the AFP news agency, he was in combative mood.

“My main aim is to bring democratic change to Kazakhstan and that Nazarbayev’s regime falls,” he said.

For Mr Nazarbayev this means a resumption of the well-funded campaign to see Mr Ablyazov in prison. The thought of the former energy minister, turned-billionaire-banker living freely in Paris will anger and irritate him.

In a subsequent Liberation interview, Mr Ablyazov was photographed looking gaunt and thin. As well as promising to continue to fund opponents of Mr Nazarbayev, he also said that he had sponsored a revolution in Kyrgyzstan in 2005.

“It was important for me in order to launch a democratic process in one of the former Soviet republics and they to be able to carry out proper reforms, which would become a model for Kazakhstan,” he said.

Kyrgyzstan’s 2005 revolution overthrew Askar Akayev. He was replaced by Kurmanbek Bakiyev who was also overthrown in a revolution in 2010.

For Kazakhstan’s disparate opposition, Mr Ablyazov is a complicated and at times Faustian character. A member of the Kazakh elite, he fled to Moscow and London after the collapse of BTA Bank, where he was chairman. The Bank had billions of dollars of debt which were exposed during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008/9. The government bought the bank, along with other smaller banks, to protect savers.

In the meantime, Mr Ablyazov set himself up as an opposition leader in a leafy area of north London.

The Kazakh government accused Mr Ablyazov of stealing billions of dollars from BTA Bank and prosecuted him through the courts in London. During one of the court sessions he absconded and went on the run in the south of France.

Mr Ablyazov, though, was unrepentant.

“Vladimir Putin is rebuilding a Soviet Union and Kazakhstan is its main ally,” he said, explaining his motivations for trying to overthrow Mr Nazarbayev.

The Kazakh Prosecutor-General’s office has said it will continue to prosecute Mr Ablyazov for the alleged theft of $5b, abuse of office, plotting a coup and various other crimes.

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(News report from Issue No. 309, published on Dec. 16 2016)

Kazakh President orders pension rise

DEC. 15 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — In a populist show of tenderness towards ordinary Kazakhs, President Nursultan Nazarbayev ordered the state pension to be increased by 20% next year. His apparent show of magnanimity coincided with the country’s 25th anniversary of independence from the Soviet Union. Pensions are paid in tenge, which has lost half its value since 2014.

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(News report from Issue No. 309, published on Dec. 16 2016)