JULY 25 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh billionaire Timur Kulibayev could take over the presidency of Kazakhstan if his father-in-law, President Nursultan Nazarbayev, was forced to step down, one of Mr Nazarbayev’s top political advisers told a newspaper. Yermukhamet Yertysbayev’s statement re-ignited debate over succession plans in Kazakhstan.

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JULY 27 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Kazakh constitution bans its subjects from discussing the health of Nursultan Nazarbayev, their 71-year-old leader, but a week after news leaked out that he may have visited a hospital in Germany for prostrate surgery, his succession plans have become the talk of the country.

Now Yermukhamet Yertysbayev, one of Mr Nazarbayev’s closest advisers, has suggested his son-in-law Timur Kulibayev could take over if ill health ever forced the president to step down.

“It is Kulibayev who would be able to continue the president’s strategic course, in the case of an extraordinary situation connected with the sudden departure of the head of state,” he said in an interview to the Russian newspaper Kommersant.

Hardly definitive then, but what Mr Yertsybayev says is important. The Kazakh media have dubbed him “a nightingale””for testing public opinion of potential future policies by gently floating them out through statements.

It is also perhaps the first time that Mr Kulibayev, 44, has been so publicly linked to the presidency, although he was quick to deny any interest. This year Mr Kulibayev has assumed more power. He was made head of Kazakhstan’s $80b sovereign wealth fund and also a board director at Gazprom, the Russian energy monopoly.

Earlier this year Mr Nazarbayev won an election that will keep him in power for another five years.

Kazakhs, though, have already begun discussing what happens beyond 2016.

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JULY 20 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – A secret trip by Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev to a hospital in Germany, reportedly for prostrate surgery, has unnerved investors.

Immediately after German tabloid newspaper Bild reported the news on July 18, the interest earned on holding Kazakh sovereign debt increased. This effectively meant investors believed that with Mr Nazarbayev in hospital taking on Kazakh debt meant taking on more risk.

After the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan became increasingly closed and instability stalked Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan but Mr Nazarbayev is credited with keeping Kazakhstan stable and opening it up to Western businesses.

His status was underlined last year when the Kazakh Parliament bestowed upon him the title of “Father of the Nation”. This year Mr Nazarbayev has won an election with 95% of the vote and said that he wants to rule until 2020.

For investors looking for stability, Mr Nazarbayev is generally good news. The problem is — what happens after the 71-year-old Nazarbayev leaves office? He doesn’t appear to have a firm succession plan.

The powers of his son-in-law Timur Kulibayev have grown this year but his ascendency to the top job is by no means guaranteed. Kazakhstan’s politics are a patchwork of competing clans and groups and other powerful figures such as PM Karim Massimov, Economy Minister Kairat Kelimbetov and Imangali Tasmagambetov, the mayor of Astana, have been touted as potential successors.

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JULY 19 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, 71, has had secret prostate surgery in a hospital in Hamburg, German tabloid Bild reported. Nazarbayev is considered key to stability in Kazakhstan and the news spooked investors. Bild said Nazarbayev went into hospital on July 14 and left two days later. The President’s office just said he was on holiday.

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