OCT. 7 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – As shown in our charts this week, markets were upbeat, especially due to a steady increase in oil prices over the past two weeks, following a landmark agreement among the world’s top oil exporters.
OPEC, the exporters’ lobby group, decided to cut oil output by around 1.5% in an effort to put pressure on the US dollar and send oil prices higher.
This is OPEC’s first production cut in eight years, since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. And the decision is an important one.
It marks a formal agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, whose diplomatic spats had been at the core of OPEC’s inability to decide in the past year.
It also has an important effect on countries around the Caspian Sea.
Azerbaijan has quickly eroded its reserve base, pumping its oil money into the budget to contain its currency crisis. This could have not lasted much longer. Now, if oil prices continue to float around $50/barrel, a good 20% higher than two months ago, transfers from the oil fund can slow down and the leadership can breathe.
Perhaps out of excitement from the impending re-start of Kashagan in the Caspian Sea, Kazakhstan is also rallying on higher oil prices, cutting interest rates and transfers from its oil fund into the budget.
Two caveats, however, are needed for Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. First, don’t believe in any proposal from these two non- OPEC countries on freezing or cutting production. If their output falls it is because of economics.
Second, you need to wait until their mega projects, from Kashagan to Shah Deniz II, come online before making long-term assumptions on the energy might held by Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.
ENDS
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(News report from Issue No. 299, published on Oct. 7 2016)