SEPT. 25 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – Campaigning started in Kyrgyzstan for a presidential election on Oct. 30. The central election commission whittled down 83 potential candidates to 20 but analysts don’t expect a winner in the first round and anticipate a run-off between PM Almazbek Atambayev, from the north, and a more nationalist candidate from the south.

ENDS

AUG. 17 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – The numbers are certainly eye catching. According to Kyrgyzstan’s Central election Commission (CEC), 83 people registered as potential candidates for a presidential election on Oct. 30.

Hopefuls included journalists, the unemployed, a shepherd, political analysts and a handful of senior politicians including PM Almazbek Atambayev.

The Kyrgyz CEC will whittle down the list before campaigning begins on Sept. 25. The candidates have to pay a 100,000 som fee ($2,250), they have to collect 30,000 signatures and pass a Kyrgyz language test.

Then the serious business starts. The race is likely to boil down to a handful of leading politicians including Atambayev who is head of the Social Democratic Party. Atambayev’s main powerbase is in the north, his main rivals’ powerbase is in the south.

Kamchibek Tashiyev from the Ata-Zhurt Party and Adakhan Madumarov from the Butun Kyrgyzstan Party are two of Mr Atambayev’s main opponents. Both are nationalists from the south.

Kyrgyz politics in essence is based on tribal and regional loyalties. It is unlikely that anybody will win more than half the votes in the first round, triggering a second round between the two leading candidates — likely to pitch north versus south.

The real challenge for Kyrgyzstan is not pruning presidential candidates to a realistic core group but in avoiding a potentially destabilising north-south split. Kyrgyzstan, at the heart of Central Asia, has the ability to spread instability across the region.

ENDS