JULY 29 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan agreed to jointly investigate a shoot-out along its shared borders earlier this month that killed one person, media reported. The announcement was an important step in deescalating tension along the border. There have been several clashes on the Tajik-Kyrgyz border this year.
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(News report from Issue No. 193, published on July 30 2014)
JULY 7 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – A new report released by the Kyrgyz government’s main think tank, the National Institute of Strategic Studies (NISS), said that joining the Customs Union (CU) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU) may trigger short term economic and social discomfort.
The report is the first serious analysis of the costs and benefits of membership carried out by the government itself. It will make for troubling reading for President Almazbek Atambayev who is still trying to sell the idea of membership of the CU/EaEU to the general public.
Membership of the CU will probably trigger inflation which may lead to political unrest and possibly even a rise in Islamic radicalism, the report said. The Macroeconomic situation may subsequently improve, the report added, without making predictions as to how long that might take.
The report also stressed several benefits of the CU, including duty-free oil imports from Russia — a benefit Kyrgyzstan already enjoys — and security via the Collective Security Treaty Organization, of which Kyrgyzstan is already a member.
On Kyrgyzstan’s frail democracy, the report was also incisive. Parliamentarianism would be better developed outside the EaEU than inside it, while norms of governance and nationalist sentiment in Russia could hamper Kyrgyzstan’s political development, the report said.
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(News report from Issue No. 192, published on July 9 2014)
JULY 4 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmenistan’s President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov said the notoriously stand-offish country would open up an embassy in Bishkek, the second new diplomatic outpost it has announced in the last few days.
Last month, Mr Berdymukhamedov said Turkmenistan would also open an office in Tbilisi. The common thread is that these are both countries in the former Soviet Union that Turkmenistan is now partnering with on energy projects.
In Georgia, Turkmenistan is interested in utilising the South Caucasus energy corridor to Europe. In Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan sees an increasingly important partner for sending gas to China, its key client.
Over the past few years, Turkmenistan has transformed itself into a major gas exporter. It has become rich and increasingly open. As well as funding various follies, such as an Olympic stadium and building white marble facades around its government buildings, some funds have gone into burnishing Turkmenistan’s image abroad. This includes opening new embassies.
Mr Berdymukhamedov’s predecessor, Saparmurat Niyazov, was a notorious recluse. Part of Mr Berdymukhamedov’s recent success has been his willingness to open up to the world, a strategy that appears to be continuing.
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(News report from Issue No. 192, published on July 9 2014)
JULY 2 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – An official at the Tajik ministry for industry told the Asia Plus news agency that the country was a step closer to cement self-sufficiency thanks largely to the work of Huaksin Gayur Cement, a factory completed last year that can produce 1m tonnes of cement annually.
That figure dwarfs the productive capacity of national champion Tajik Cement, which produces four or five times less. Tajikistan consumes 1.5m tonnes of cement per year and imports from Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Iran and Russia.
The 75% Chinese-owned enterprise in the capital Dushanbe is one of several key Chinese investments to have popped up in Tajikistan over the last year. In addition to building heating plants for Dushanbe and Tajikistan’s second city, Khujand, China has begun construction of an oil refinery in Khatlon province that will almost meet Tajikistan’s domestic fuel needs.
Factory-by-factory, Beijing is also easing the employment crisis in the world’s most remittance-dependent country. Huaksin Gayur Cement has provided over 400 local jobs. The Khatlon refinery will provide a similar number.
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(News report from Issue No. 192, published on July 9 2014)
China’s investment surge in impoverished Tajikistan is beginning to show results.
JULY 7 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – China has said it is keen to invest $1b building a new terminal at the Manas airport outside Bishkek, media reported. This is important symbolically. The US military was based at Manas for 13 years flying support missions to Afghanistan and Russia has also said it was interested in investing in the airport.
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(News report from Issue No. 192, published on July 9 2014)
JULY 8 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – In an effort to dampen souring corruption rates, Kyrgyz president Almazbek Atambayev signed into law a bill that will force municipal governments to post in public their plans about various contraction projects. Construction is a major source of corruption in Kyrgyzstan.
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(News report from Issue No. 192, published on July 9 2014)
JUNE 30 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyz officials denied entry to the country to Uzbek human rights activist Vasila Inoyatova, media reported. Human rights groups have complained that Kyrgyzstan discriminates against Uzbeks. Ms Inoyatova has been a critic of the Kyrgyz authorities’ attitude towards Uzbeks.
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(News report from Issue No. 190, published on July 2 2014)
JULY 1 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Speaking at a ceremony where government staff received free housing, Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev said that $100m of a $1.2b fund from Russia designated for Kyrgyzstan’s Customs Union entry would go towards a pot for cheap credit for citizens looking to buy homes.
“Having a roof over your head means having freedom and happiness,” said Atambayev at the ceremony. Kyrgyzstan may formally enter the economic alliance, which is set to become the Eurasian Economic Union, as early as autumn this year.
Housing is a politicised issue in Kyrgyzstan, with illegal land grabs affecting the country’s two main cities, Bishkek and Osh. Poor rural migrants have formed new settlements, often unconnected to municipal services like electricity, stretching for miles beyond both cities.
The Customs Union is also a highly politicised issue and Mr Atambayev has been at pains to emphasis the benefits of tighter relations with Russia and the joint Kyrgyz-Russian fund. With a start-up capital of $500 million in Russian credits, the fund has been heralded as a means to strengthen Kyrgyzstan’s industrial capacity and move it away from an economic model structured on re-exporting cheap Chinese goods.
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(News report from Issue No. 190, published on July 2 2014)
JUNE 30 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyzstan’s authorities have deported 25 Chinese migrants for working illegally at an oil refinery in Tokmak in the north of the country after a fight with their Kyrgyz co-workers, media reported. The incident highlights lingering tensions between Chinese workers and locals in Central Asia.
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(News report from Issue No. 190, published on July 2 2014)
JULY 2 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Islamic extremists who have captured several cities in Iraq under the banner of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) have been directly trying to recruit disenchanted religious Kazakhs.
In an interview with Tengrinews, a news website linked to the Kazakh government, political analyst Yerlan Karin said that he had seen videos put out by ISIS showing men with Kazakh passports being recruited and then trained.
He also said that in Syria, where Islamic extremists from Central Asia, had been fighting, units were organised along ethnicity. And this, experts have said, is particularly worrying as they may be more inclined to use the skills and experience learned in Syria back home.
“There have been such cases in Central Asia already: 25 Kyrgyz nationals who returned from combat zones in Syria and attempted acts of terrorism in their home country are now in prison in Kyrgyzstan,” Mr Karin said.
The authorities in Central Asia have been particularly nervous about the civil war in Syria and now the ISI attacks in Iraq, as they represent an easily accessible war zone for Islamic extremists to gravitate towards.
ISI have declared an Islamic Caliphate stretching across Syria and Iraq.
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(News report from Issue No. 190, published on July 2 2014)
