Tag Archives: Kyrgyzstan

Comment: The green shoots of a recovery are visible

APRIL 6 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — In Edinburgh, where The Conway Bulletin has its editorial HQ, the green shoots of a timid spring are finally beginning to breakthrough after a long, grey winter.

And it’s the same scenario for the economies of Central Asia and the South Caucasus. A deep, bleak winter has enveloped them since mid-2014 but now, finally, data suggests a revival is on the horizon.

In this week’s newspaper, we report that both the Kyrgyz and Armenian Central Banks have kept their key interest rates steady. This, in itself, is a victory. Armenia has been furiously cutting its rates from a high of 10.5% in 2015 to 6% to try to stimulate growth and beat deflation. Now it says this policy has gone far enough and that inflation of around 4% is predicted this year.

In Kyrgyzstan, the economic news is even more upbeat. In its statement explaining just why it had kept interest rates steady, the Central Bank said that it was no longer having to intervene in the money market to keep the som currency from sliding. It also said that the economy had grown by 5.4% in January and February compared to the same period in 2016.

Armenia and Kyrgyzstan are two of the smaller economies in the region but the larger economies are also reporting positive news.

In Georgia, the statistics agency said that the economy had grown by 4.8% in the first two months of the year, pushed up by a growth in exports and an all- important rise in remittances. Georgia may also be benefiting from several local factors. Improved relations with Russia have given exports a major boost, especially wine, and the scrapping of visa regulations for Iranians has encouraged a large rise in tourists and business trips.

For the region’s two major economies the data has been less flattering, although there are still signs of improvements. In Azerbaijan, there is disagreement between economists on whether its economy will grow or not after it shrank by 3.8% in 2016. It’s dependent on oil, and prices are currently hovering around $50/barrel, above the anticipated $40/barrel.

In Kazakhstan, the Central Bank last month cut its interest rate and gave its most upbeat assessment of the economy, pointing out that inflation was under control and growth was expected.

And if you’re still not convinced about those green shoots of economic recovery, and that’s understandable as, just like a Scottish spring, they are fragile, take a look at the Azerbaijani manat and the Kazakh tenge. They are both up against the US dollar by more than 5% this year.

By James Kilner, Editor, The Conway Bulletin

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(News report from Issue No. 323, published on April 6 2017)

Kyrgyz opposition in jail attempts suicide

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APRIL 2 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyz opposition leaders demanded an investigation into wounds found on Sadyr Japarov, a former MP who was detained last month after he arrived back in Kyrgyzstan after four years of self- imposed exile. Mr Japarov, who has been detained on suspicion of involvement in various financial crimes, was found with cuts to his neck which the authorities have said were self-inflicted during a suicide attempt. In March hundreds of Mr Japarov’s supporters had clashed with police in Bishkek. Mr Japarov is one of several opposition leaders who have been arrested.

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(News report from Issue No. 323, published on April 6 2017)

Russian Officials accuse Kyrgyz man for suicide bomb in St Petersbug

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BISHKEK, APRIL 3 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Scrutiny of Central Asia as a breeding ground for Islamic extremists intensified after Russian security forces named 22-year-old Akbarzhon Jalilov from Kyrgyzstan as the suicide bomber who killed at least 14 people on Monday on the St Petersburg metro.

In the 48 hours following the attack, Russian police detained six people from Central Asia who they said were recruiting for the IS extremist group. Russia is a major destination for migrant workers from Central Asia and a vital source of remittance flows.

One of the 14 people confirmed dead in the bomb attack was a Kazakh national who had been studying in St Petersburg.

In Kyrgyzstan, people were split on the implications of the St Petersburg bomb. Many people worried about a backlash against Kyrgyz migrant workers in Russia.

“The terrorist act has caused damage to our country’s image. All over the world, they now write that the terrorist was from Kyrgyzstan,” Azamat, from Karakol in eastern Kyrgyzstan, said. “Now, many of our migrants in the Russian Federation will be affected by the terrorist attack. There will be daily inspections and other actions [by police].”

Jalilov, the alleged suicide bomber, was an ethnic Uzbek of Kyrgyz nationality who was brought up in Osh in southern Kyrgyzstan. Media reports, though, said that he had been living in Russia for a few years and had taken Russian citizenship. Earlier this year an Uzbek man was arrested in Istanbul for killing at 39 people at a nightclub on New Year’s eve.

In 2016, security forces said 600 Kyrgyz travelled to Syria to join IS and many people in Bishkek were worried that these people were returning and spreading extreme ideology.

“Radical Islam is guilty of this bombing. Some people go abroad to receive religious education, are recruited by radicals and come back,” said Dmitry, 36.

Central Asia is the focus of a debate over whether it has become the main recruiting ground for IS.

Those that say it has, have said the mix of frustrated young men with little prospects, the rise of militant Islam and the harsh tactics used by the security forces are pushing people into the arms of extremists.

Others have said this description is overblown. Edward Lemon, a research scholar at Columbia University specialising in extremism in Central Asia, said the region is not providing IS with a flow of recruits.

“These isolated attacks do not necessarily indicate that Central Asia is becoming a hotbed of extremism. In fact, the evidence suggests a slowing of the flow of recruits to IS and al-Nusra in recent months,” he said.

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(News report from Issue No. 323, published on April 6 2017)

Kyrgyz economy is improving, says C.Bank

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MARCH 27 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan’s Central Bank kept its key interest rate steady at 5%, half the level it was 12 months ago, citing an improvement in the economy and a slowdown in inflation. Importantly it said that the economy had grown in the first two months of the year and that the som currency had stabilised without the Central Bank’s interference. Currencies and economies in the Central Asia/South Caucasus region have been hit hard since 2014 by a recession in Russia and fall in oil prices.

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(News report from Issue No. 323, published on April 6 2017)

Stock Market: Tethys, Centerra Gold

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APRIL 6 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Shares in oil producer Tethys traded up at 1.73% on Monday despite full year results showing that its revenues from oil and gas sales had fallen by 47% to $11.7m.

It blamed the drop in revenue on the devaluation of the tenge in the second half of 2015 and a drop in oil output. Tethys sells most of its production on the domestic Kazakh market.

Despite the drop in revenues, Tethys said that its losses for 2016 were actually smaller than its losses in 2015, perhaps driving the price up 26% on the London Stock Exchange. Tethys if one of the region’s most illiquid stocks.

Most of the savings came in tight cost-cutting in administrative issues. It said that losses for 2016 were $46.9m compared to $74.6m in 2015. Tethys is pulling out of a project with China’s CNPC and France’s Total in Tajikistan because it couldn’t keep up with its call payments. It is also locked in a commercial dispute in Kazakhstan which has meant that the bank accounts of its subsidiary have been frozen.

Despite hitting a 6-month high of C$7.65, analysts have been lining up to give Centerra Gold’s stock a hefty ‘buy’ rating.

CIBC gave it a target rating of C$10 this year and CSFB went even further with a rating of C$10.25. The consensus target price is C$8.08.

The buy ratings appear to be based on strong gold prices which are enough to shrug off Centerra Gold’s spat with the Kyrgyz authorities. Kyrgyzstan wants a direct stake in the Kumtor gold mine, its largest industrial asset, which is wholly owned by Centerra Gold. Instead it currently holds a 32.7%% stake in Centerra Gold.

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(News report from Issue No. 323, published on April 6 2017)

Riot police clash with protesters in Kyrgyz capital

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BISHKEK, MARCH 25 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Roughly 500 people protested outside the security services in Bishkek against the arrest of a former MP, the latest and most violent in a series of demonstrations that have punctured the relative peace of the Kyrgyz capital this year.

Sadyr Japarov, a former MP, was arrested at a border checkpoint when he tried to return to Kyrgyzstan after fleeing the country in 2013.

Protesters scrapped and fought with police, in what has been described as the most violent anti- government clashes this year, after the deadline for Mr Japarov’s release from questioning by the security serv- ices came and went without him emerging. Bishkek is increasingly tense with presidential elections scheduled for November expected to be a tightly fought affair.

Police armed with riot gear had to move in to break up the demonstrations. Police said that they detained 68 people.

There have been several protests already this year in Kyrgyzstan focused on allegations made against the main opposition party Ata Meken, but opinion among experts and locals about this unexpected protest were divided. Some said the arrest, the protest, and quickly-ar- ranged press conference given by the ministry of interior looked suspicious.

“The brave arrival of Sadyr Japarov with the simultaneous organisation of an assertive protest, which would certainly fail, is somewhat strange,” wrote Nurbek Toktakunov, a well- known civil activist and human rights advocate in Bishkek, on Facebook.

A Bishkek lawyer said that the organisational skills shown by the ministry of interior in staging a press conference immediately after the protest were unprecedented.

“The ministry of interior rarely gives press conferences about demonstrations. This is surprising,” he said, asking to remain anonymous.

Other analysts said that the protest may have been organised by the security services to discredit the opposition. Mr Japarov’s return was unexpected as it is unclear what he was returning for, although some said he wanted to drum up support for standing in the presidential election. He had been an MP with the now marginalised Ata Zhurt party, and had largely been forgotten during his self-imposed exile.

The state authorities had accused him in 2012 of trying to overthrow the government. He denied the charges and fled the country.

Some locals praised the police action, though.

“Unregistered protests lead to anarchy. They began to throw stones, plastic bottles and broke through the cordon,” said Daniyar, 27, a resident of Bishkek. “It was a good job our policemen took preventive measures, otherwise it would be chaos.”

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(News report from Issue No. 322, published on March 27 2017)

Remittances in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan fall, in general

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MARCH 22 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Remittances to Central Asia from Russia, a vital engine for economies in the region, fell in 2016 compared to 2015, data from the Russian Central Bank showed. Uzbeks working in Russia sent back $2.74b in 2016, down from $3b in 2015 and Tajiks sent back $1.9b compared to $2.2b the year before. Kyrgyzstan actually increased its remittances from Russia to $1.7b in 2016 from $1.5b.

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(News report from Issue No. 322, published on March 27 2017)

Kyrgyz court freezes media group’s bank accounts

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MARCH 22 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — A court in Kyrgyzstan froze the bank accounts of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Kyrgyz service and the website Zanoza.kg, which are both facing libel charges from the government for allegedly defaming President Almazbek Atambayev. The two media units deny the charges and have said that, instead, they are victims of the Kyrgyz government’s increasingly vitriolic attack on the free media.

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(News report from Issue No. 322, published on March 27 2017)

OnePlus to push out smartphone to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan

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MARCH 17 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Chinese smartphone maker OnePlus has signed a deal with FSU-wide distributor Marvel to push its 3T model into the Kazakh and Kyrgyz markets, media reported. OnePlus has only been building smartphones since 2013 but it has already attracted rave reviews. The deal, which should push the 3T onto the shop floors of mobile handset retailers, reflects the prominence of China in Central Asia.

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(News report from Issue No. 322, published on March 27 2017)

Hundreds more protest in Kyrgyz capital

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MARCH 18/19 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Police in the Kyrgyz capital broke up a series of anti-government protests complaining about what they said was pressure on free speech. Media reported that hundreds of people turned out for the demonstrations after the government said that it was going to sue two media companies for slandering Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev. There have been a number of anti-government protests in Bishkek since the arrest last month of senior members of the opposition Ata Meken party, including leader and presidential candidate Omurbek Tekebayev.

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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)