Tag Archives: Kyrgyzstan

Currency: Kazakh tenge, Kyrgyz som

OCT. 1 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — It’s hard to believe that Kazakhstan has really moved to a free-floating currency market. The roller-coaster of the past 40 days has hit the Central Bank’s credibility. Investors and citizens alike are wary of the potential consequences of their tenge-denominated portfolios.

And over the last two weeks, the Central Bank has sold around $1b to keep the tenge away from the frightening 300/$1 floor it momentarily touched on Sept. 16.

The tenge has since traded at around 271/1$. In August, the Central Bank chose to move away from a dollar peg of around 188/$1 to avoid draining its reserves. Now, it seems, the tenge has found another, unofficial, peg.

In other countries, the situation was fairly stable this week. The Kyrgyz som kept its rate through the week at around 69/$1. The Georgian lari held below 2.39/$1.

In Tajikistan, the Central Bank seems to be allowing a weekly 0.5% decline for the somoni, now at around 6.5/$1.

And finally, in a recent Central Bank survey, 41% of Tajikistan’s population is in favour of letting the somoni float free.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)

Kyrgyzstan increases interest rate

SEPT. 29 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyzstan’s Central Bank increased its key interest rate by 2% to 10% to combat rising inflation. The Kyrgyz interest rate has yo-yoed this year. It started at 10.5%, rose to 11%, was cut to 9.5% and then to 8% before being increased again.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)

Kyrgyzstan wants China to enter its banking sector

SEPT. 25 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Looking to court China, Kyrgyzstan’s deputy PM Valery Dil said China should buy one of the country’s commercial banks. China is a vital investor for Central Asian states.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)

Markets: Interest rates up in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Georgia

OCT. 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The three countries in the Central Asia and South Caucasus region with currencies floating freely (or partially so) have all increased their key interest rate.

Kazakhstan was the last to do so, bringing its key interest rate to 16% from the previous level of 12%. The 12% mark had only been set at the start of September, highlighting just how seriously the Kazakh Central Bank had underestimated the threat from inflation in its initial calculations. The Kyrgyz Central Bank raised its benchmark rate to 10%, up by 2 percentage points. Last week, Georgia increased rates to 7% from 6%.

The bottom line is that all three countries fear inflation. Kyrgyzstan has tried to hold off, while the Central Bank intervened lightly in the currency market to defend the som, but both foreign trade and remittances from abroad have declined, putting the Kyrgyz economy in an uncomfortable position.

Although probably necessary, these measures might not be enough to avoid climbing inflation in the coming months.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)

Stock market: KAZ Minerals, Central Asia Metals

OCT. 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Mining companies dominated the news this week from stock markets selling shares in Central Asian and South Caucasian companies.

London-listed KAZ Minerals lost 30% in one week before rising slightly to 91p. What was striking, though, was that the trade volume surpassed 25m shares, a weekly turnaround that was only seen during a surge in August and during another sharp fall in mid-January.

Central Asia Metals was essentially stable this week in London at around 155-158p.

Toronto-listed Centerra Gold fell again. This week, the Kyrgyzstan- focused mining company lost around 6% to end the week at 7.29 Canadian dollars.

Central Asia-focused oil companies showed mixed results. Nostrum Oil & Gas shares lost around 4% this week, down to 462p. This fall was linked to the ongoing saga with Tethys Petroleum on the takeover.

Kazakhstan-focused Roxi Petroleum performed well this wekek, as it climbed back to 10p, an 18% surge in seven days, triggered by the positive interim results for H1 2015 it published on Sept. 29.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)

Uzbek-Kyrgyz trade halves

SEPT. 22 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – In Jan.-July 2015, trade turnover between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan halved to $78.4m compared to the same period in 2014, according to Kyrgyz customs data. The figure shows the impact of the economic downturn.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 249, published on Sept. 25 2015)

Currency: Kazakh tenge, Kyrgyz som

SEPT. 25 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Last week’s decision by the US Federal Reserve Bank not to modify interest rates was welcomed across Central Asia and the South Caucasus, where currencies performed well.

The Kazakh tenge, the Georgian lari and the Kyrgyz som all recouped 2% against the dollar and a timid 1% improvement was also noted in Armenia and Azerbaijan. Markets are still weak, however. Had it not been for Central Bank interventions for millions of dollars in Kazakhstan ($620m in one week), Georgia and Kyrgyzstan (around $30m each), their currencies would have kept falling.

By the end of the week, the Kazakh tenge was trading up 2.5% against the US dollar at 264/$1, the Kyrgyz som was up 2% at 69/$1 and the Georgian lari was up 2.4% at 2.39/$1.

Also, and this is interesting, a study from researchers at the International Monetary Fund found that the lack of confidence in domestic currencies and ingrained behaviours have hindered any policy of de-dollarisation across Central Asia and the South Caucasus.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 249, published on Sept. 25 2015)

Russia blocks fish to Kyrgyzstan

SEPT. 23 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Rosselkhoznadzor, Russia’s food safety agency, seized 48.5 tonnes of Chinese canned fish being transported via railway to Kyrgyzstan from Estonia. The cargo was sent back to Estonia because its certificates did not comply with Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) rules. Canned fish from China is shipped to Estonia before being sent to Central Asia. The seizure highlights just how complicated transporting products across the EEU has become.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 249, published on Sept. 25 2015)

Kyrgyzstan to establish energy holding

SEPT. 22 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyzstan will establish a national energy holding next year, Kubanychbek Turdubayev, Kyrgyz minister of energy, said in a statement. The government has said that it hopes that a single energy holding would improve efficiency.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 249, published on Sept. 25 2015)

Markets: ADB’s growth outlook for the South Caucasus and Central Asia

SEPT. 22 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Asian Development Bank published an updated Outlook for the economies of Central Asia and the South Caucasus, downgrading growth prospects across the region.

The ADB set growth for 2015 at 3.3%, down from an earlier forecast of 3.5% and the organisation says inflation will hit 8.1% this year, triggered by the latest devaluing of the Kazakh tenge and the Kyrgyz som. In Kazakhstan, in particular, “the new exchange rate is expected to dampen consumption and investment further,” the ADB said. A worrying outlook.

The trend for lower capital investments across the region, however, could be reversed in 2016-17, according to the ADB. The governments will play a major role as drivers of future growth as the main source of investments for years to come.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 249, published on Sept. 25 2015)