Tag Archives: Kyrgyzstan

Currency: Kazakh tenge, Kyrgyz som

OCT. 2-8 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Kazakh tenge lost 1.5% of its value over the past week, ending at 274/$1.

Much of this perceived strength appears to lie with the Central Bank’s little secret — intervention. Despite promising never to intervene in the currency again, the Kazakh Central Bank has spent another $367.5m this week propping up its currency.

Over the border in Kyrgyzstan, the som crept briefly over 69/$1 on Oct. 6, before settling back to 68.9 in a week that saw little of the violent fluctuations of previous episodes. The Kyrgyz Central Bank also intervened in the market, selling $10.2m.

No doubt the successful and peace- ful parliamentary elections would have played well to the steady currency markets. European vote monitors were certainly impressed and that is good for Kyrgyzstan’s image.

The Georgian lari was also stable last week at 2.40. Positive economic data and a substantial stability in foreign reserves reassured lari holders.

The Tajik somoni continued its gradual devaluation against the dollar. By marginally weakening every week, the somoni has lost 2.5% of its value against the dollar over the past month.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)

Remittances to Kyrgyzstan drop

OCT. 8 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Kyrgyz Central Bank said remittances from Russia fell by 27% in US dollar terms during the first eight months of this year compared to the same period last year. Cash flows from Russia increased by 18% in rouble terms, but a fall in the value of Russia’s currency against the US dollar meant that the real value fell.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)

Markets: Inflation and growth in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan

OCT. 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Analysts in Kazakhstan have revised their inflation expectations down to 7.1% this year after official data showed that the consumer price index grew by only 1% in September.

Halyk Finance researchers said the numbers are much more encouraging than what they forecasted. This should keep inflation within the Central Bank target of 6-8%. Central Bank chairman Kairat Kelimbetov said he doesn’t rule out the possibility of a further increase in interest rates, after a new rate was set at the end of last week.

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) said in a report that Kyrgyzstan’s economy is poised to grow by 1.8% this year. This came after PM Temir Sariyev disclosed more optimistic numbers, pointing out that in Jan.- Sept. 2015, the country’s economy grew by 6%. The EDB said it expects a marginal slowdown in economic activity in Q4 2015.

The IMF has dramatically increased its forecast for Azerbaijan’s growth in 2015, from a meagre 0.6% in April to 4% in its latest report.

The international lender also revised inflation expectations downwards from 7.9% to 5% for 2015, more good news.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)

Comment: This was a successful election for Kyrgyz democracy

OCT. 9 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – On Oct. 4, Kyrgyzstan held parliamentary election marked by significant improvements in the country’s democratic development.

The elections have demonstrated the viability of Kyrgyzstan’s constitution adopted in 2010 that delegated more powers to the parliament and prevents the emergence of autocratic political power. Six political parties out of a total of 14 were able to pass the national and regional threshold, adding an important element of political plurality.

The elections are significant for three main reasons.

First, despite earlier skepticism, the Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan (SDPK), led by President Almazbek Atambayev gained only an estimated 38 seats out of total 120. This demonstrates that the president was unable to gain wide support despite his overwhelming influence over state media and the public sector.

Along with SDPK, the new parliament includes Respublika- Ata-Jurt bloc, Kyrgyzstan, Onuguu, Bir Bol and Ata-Meken parties.

Second, competing political parties tried to arrange their party lists to ensure both popularity and professionalism of their top members. As a result, the new parliament will include a greater number of powerful individuals better able to articulate their respective parties’ agendas. Greater professionalism in parliament can in turn boost the quality of political debates.

Finally, despite multiple cases of election fraud at voting booths and controversy surrounding a rushed collection of biometric data ahead of the elections, the electoral process was a progression towards greater transparency and accountability among political parties.

The government actively tried to eliminate fraud, while parties reported their campaign spending.

Televised debates featured representatives of competing parties who sought to distinguish themselves with creative policy solutions to pressing issues.

The new parliament will inevitably have a strong minority coalition either led by Respublika- Ata-Jurt block or will be composed of smaller parties aligning against SDPK.

But regardless of who will end up in the ruling coalition, the process of coalition formation is likely to be highly contentious and fraught with difficulties.

By Erica Marat, Assistant Professor at the College of International Security Affairs of the National Defense University, Washington DC

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)

Kyrgyzstan and Belarus relaunch relations

OCT. 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyzstan said it has reopened its embassy in Minsk, three years after it broke off relations with Belarus. In 2012, Belarus refused to extradite former Kyrgyz president Kurmanbek Bakiyev, who had been sentenced to prison in Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyzstan joined the Kremlin-led Eurasian Economic Union in August. Belarus is also a member.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)

Kyrgyzstan elections receive praise

OCT. 4 2015, BISHKEK (The Conway Bulletin) — At a parliamentary election, Kyrgyzstan held what observers said was the most democratic and transparent vote in Central Asia’s post-Soviet history.

The Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan, the party of Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev, won the elections with 27% of the vote, taking 38 seats out of parliament’s total of 120. This is an increase on the 2010 election when the Social Democrats won 28 seats.

The Central Election Committee said that of the 14 established parties at the election, six won more than a 7% share of the vote and would enter parliament.

Other than some technical issues with equipment designed to read some people’s identification, Western vote monitors from Europe’s OSCE passed off the election as broadly democratic and fair.

“Voting was assessed positively in 95% of polling station observed, it was orderly and well organised in the large majority of polling stations observed, and only relatively minor technical problems with the voter identification equipment and ballot scanners were reported,” the OSCE said in a statement.

And ordinary Kyrgyz took much pride in the Western monitors’ democratic assessment of the election.

Cholpon Dzhaparkulova, a 22- year resident of Bishkek, said: “Compared to other Central Asian and post-Soviet countries, elections in Kyrgyzstan went fairly and transparently.”

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)

European monitors applaud parliamentary election in Kyrgyzstan

OCT. 5 2015, BISHKEK (The Conway Bulletin) — Observers from Europe’s main election watchdog the OSCE said that parliamentary elections on Oct. 4 were “unique” in post-Soviet Central Asia.

At a press conference the day after the election, Ignacio Sánchez Amor, head of the short-term OSCE observer mission said: “These lively and competitive elections were unique in this region as, until 8 o’clock last night, nobody knew what the composition of the parliament would be.”

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 251, published on Oct. 9 2015)

Kyrgyz minister complains about “flood” of imports

BISHKEK, SEPT. 25 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Alluding to concerns about the impact of the Kremlin-lead Eurasian Economic Union, Kyrgyzstan’s deputy PM Vladimir Dil said cheap products from Russia and Kazakhstan have been flooding the market.

Many politicians and government officials in Kyrgyzstan were sceptical in August about the benefits of joining the trade block that includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia. Some said that the Kremlin views the Eurasian Economic Union as a political project and that it pressured Kyrgyzstan, which has become increasingly reliant on Russia for economic and military support, into joining.

Now Mr Dil has stepped out and seemingly openly criticised the Eurasian Economic Union.

“We are seeing a very large flow of goods from Kazakhstan and Russia to our side. The changes in the exchange rates of the rouble and the tenge has turned goods in markets of our allies far cheaper than ours,” Mr Dil said. He didn’t explicitly mention the Eurasian Economic Union but the inference was clear. Kazakhstan cut its peg to a US dollar towards the end of August. The Kazakh tenge immediately lost around a quarter of its value.

A large drop in the value of the tenge and entry to the Eurasian Economic Union, it appears, has exposed Kyrgyzstan to cheap imports.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)

Frustrations build ahead of Kyrgyzstan’s election

OCT. 2 2015, BISHKEK (The Conway Bulletin) — By the standards of Kyrgyzstan’s febrile politics, the build up to its Oct. 4 parliamentary election has been calm but an often disinterested public and frustration over biometric data requirements have tarnished the vote.

Five years ago, in the aftermath of a revolution that ousted the unpopular Kurmanbek Bakiyev and the switch to a parliamentary democracy, it was a very different story. The mood was positive.

Now, ordinary Kyrgyz say that the political elite have gripped the political process making it less transparent and more self-serving.

“I am disappointed in representativeness of political parties, there are no parties for which I can vote,” said 23-year old Atabek, a student.

His friend, Temirlan, agreed.

“I wont go as there is no party in which I could be confident,” he said. As well as the usual complaints over the quality of the candidates, controversy has focused on requirements set out by the Kyrgyz Central Election Committee which insisted that people had to submit various personal data to the authorities before they could vote. Roughly a third of the population failed to register for the vote.

Still, some voters are upbeat.

Jenish, a 45-year-old taxi driver waiting for clients in a main Bishkek street said: “I will go to elections to fulfil my civic duty.”

Another Bishkek resident, 32-year old Mira, was excited about voting.

“I will vote for a party where a leader is a young and successful businessman,” she said.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)

Kyrgyz and Tajik CASA-1000 worries

SEPT. 25 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – In an interview with a local newspaper, an official from Pakistan’s ministry of water and power said it was $142m short of its promised $297m investment for the so called CASA- 1000 power transit project. This is a serious concern for the project which is set to cost a total of $1.2b. If completed it will boost Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan power exports to Pakistan and Afghanistan.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 250, published on Oct. 2 2015)