Tag Archives: Kyrgyzstan

Currency: Kazakh tenge, Kyrgyz som

OCT. 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — In this current regional economic crisis, when currencies are stable it has to be positive.

The US Federal Reserve Bank kept interest rates unchanged, giving some more breathing room to currencies across Central Asia and the South Caucasus.

This was one of the first stable weeks for currencies in the region after heavy turbulence shook, ravished even, the markets.

The three free-floating currencies followed a similar pattern this week, weakening only marginally.

The Kazakh tenge lost just 0.5% of its value against the US dollar, ending at 279.2/$1 on Friday. The Kyrgyz som followed suit losing 0.7% of its value at 69.4/$1. The Georgian lari was stable at 2.39/$1.

In Tajikistan, the Central Bank said the somoni lost 30% of its value in the year to Sept. 2015. On Friday, it was stable at 6.62/$1.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)

Markets: Remittances from Russia to South Caucasus and Central Asia fall

OCT. 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Remittances from Russia to Central Asia and the South Caucasus keep falling, a major problem for countries which are heavily reliant on cash sent back by workers in Russia. Think Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan in particular.

Fresh data from the Russian Central Bank shows a fall of 12% in Q3 2015 compared to the same period last year for all countries in our region, except Georgia, which lies outside the Russian data.

For Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, remittances from migrant workers are vital, accounting for around half of their GDP. Uzbekistan and Armenia are also heavily reliant on money transfers from Russia.

Remittances to Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan showed a first sign of recovery in Q3, although their overall balance for 2015 remains negative, compared to 2014. According to the Kyrgyz Central Bank, the value of remittances this year has dropped by around $400m to $1b.

Similarly, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have lost as much as 35% of their remittances in the first nine months of 2015.

From rock bottom, it can only get better. Figures from the next two quarters will likely show a growth in the value of remittances, because the benchmark they will be measured against is the nadir of the crisis of last winter.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)

Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan attempt to resolve border dispute

OCT. 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Senior officials from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan agreed to meet on Nov. 5 in Bishkek to try and resolve the long running issue of border demarcation. Border disputes have strained relations between the two countries since independence.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)

Stock market: Centerra Gold, KAZ Minerals

OCT. 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The US Federal Reserve Bank’s hinted that interest rates could be increased in December, hitting stock markets worldwide. South Caucasus- and Central Asia-related shares were no exception.

Miners were hit badly. Kyrgyzstan- focused Centerra Gold saw its shares lose over 9% in Toronto this week, closing at 7.36 Canadian dollars on Friday.

KAZ Minerals shares were also down 9%, closing at 116p on Friday.

After announcing it would pay a dividend to its shareholders on Oct. 30, Central Asia Metals reversed a slow start and closed on Friday, with a marginal positive growth, at 163p/share in London.

Oil and gas producers also suffered, despite oil prices gaining 2% this week with Brent crude closing at $49.5/barrel. Kazakhstan-focused Tethys Petroleum and Nostrum Oil & Gas both lost around 10% this week.

After reaching an 8-month high at £21.35/share last Friday, London-listed Bank of Georgia fell by 6.5% to £20.00. Last week its shares rallied after a healthcare group it holds a large stake in announced an IPO price range that valued the company at around $500m.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)

Kyrgyzstan keeps interest rates stable

OCT. 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Kyrgyz Central Bank said after its monthly monetary policy meeting that it was keeping interest rates stable at 10% after pressure on the som currency eased in October. Last month, it raised rates by 2% to halt a slide in the value of the som. It lost 16% of its value in June-Sept.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)

Kerry heads to Kyrgyzstan at start of Central Asia tour

OCT. 27 2015, BISHKEK (The Conway Bulletin) — US State Secretary, John Kerry, was due to fly to Kyrgyzstan on Oct. 31 for the start of his first tour of Central Asia, a stopover considered vital to repair relations with an ally that has drifted towards Russia over the past couple of years.

In Bishkek, Mr Kerry will hold bilateral discussions with senior Kyrgyz officials, including President Almazbek Atambayev, and open a new campus for the American University of Central Asia.

Top of Mr Kerry’s agenda will be the growing influence of Russia as well as a draft bill banning so-called gay propaganda and a law that bans local NGOs from foreign funding.

Marat Kazakpayev, a Bishkek analyst, said US investments and security would be discussed.

“They will discuss security in the region, including situation in Afghanistan and Syria, as well what to do to counter terrorism,” he said.

The US operated an airbase from the Manas airport outside Bishkek for 13 years until 2014 when it was wound down alongside military operations in Afghanistan.

For Mr Kerry and the US, this is an important trip to Central Asia.

It has ceded influence in the region to Russia and China. Russia has the historical, political and cultural links; China has the financial firepower.

In contrast, with the scaling down of military operations in Afghanistan, the US and the West have appeared to disengage with Central Asia. Mr Kerry’s main mission will be to re- assure the region’s leaders that the US is still interested in Central Asia.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)

Kyrgyzstan to sell paper plant

OCT. 23 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Kyrgyz government said it wants to sell a bankrupt paper mill for 300m soms ($4.3m), a fraction of its original value. The plant, built in the early 2000s through a Kyrgyz-Chinese joint venture, cost around 151m yuan, ($24m) to build. It operated for only two years, before being mothballed. Paper prices have collapsed over the past few years, forcing paper mills around the world out of business.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 254, published on Oct. 30 2015)

Ex-Kyrgyz President publishes memoirs

OCT. 22 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyzstan’s exiled former President Kurmanbek Bakiyev published an autobiography of his time in office, a move that will irritate the Kyrgyz leadership. Mr Bakiyev presented his book in Belarus, where he fled after a revolution in 2010. Kyrgyzstan has tried unsuccessfully to extradite Mr Bakiyev to face various corruption charges.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)

Markets: Trade turnover among Eurasian Economic Union members falls

OCT. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Eurasian Economic Commission published the latest statistics on trade turnover among EEU countries. It made for interesting, if also distressing, reading.

Trade among Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan was down by a quarter in Jan.-Aug. 2015, compared to the same period last year.

By volume, Russia was the country that suffered the largest fall, amounting to over $4b. In terms of percentage, however, all other countries except for Kyrgyzstan fared worse — Kyrgyzstan acceded as a full member only in August, so its numbers could be misleading.

Curiously, Armenia increased trade turnover with non-EEU countries such as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan by over 40%.

In the two periods analysed by the Commission, oil prices were significantly different. And this can be clearly seen in Kazakhstan’s statistics, which show a sharp fall in exports to Italy, China and Russia, its main trade partners by volume. In particular, the value of Kazakhstan’s exports were reduced by the double whammy of lower oil prices and the decrease in the value of the tenge after the government abandoned its peg to the US dollar.

It is undeniable that the rouble crisis and the fall in oil prices have affected the Eurasian region. And the EEU has been unabel to contain the spill-over effects on its members.

OCT. 23 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) —

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)

Kyrgyz prisoners escape

OCT. 22 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyz police captured a group of criminals who escaped last week from a prison outside Bishkek. Five of the nine fugitives died, two in clashes with the police and three in custody. Families and human rights groups have asked for an investigation.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 253, published on Oct. 23 2015)