Tag Archives: Kyrgyzstan

Stock market: KAZ Minerals, Centerra Gold

NOV. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — On the stock markets, KAZ Minerals, formerly called Kazakhmys, was one of the biggest movers.

Its share price rose from 80p to 92p — a two-week high, apparently off the back of news that it will restructure some of its costs.

On the Canada stock market, shares in Centerra Gold recovered from a six-month low of 6.95 Canadian dollars after its core asset, the Kumtor gold mine in Kyrgyzstan announced better-than-expected results.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 257, published on Nov. 20 2015)

Pakistani PM visits Tajikistan

NOV. 12 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – On a trip that also took in neighbouring Uzbekistan, Pakistani PM Nawaz Sharif visited Dushanbe for a meeting with Tajik president Emomali Rakhmon that would have focused on the CASA-1000 energy project. CASA-1000 aims to turn Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan into power exporters, sending electricity to Pakistan and Afghanistan.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 257, published on Nov. 20 2015)

Earthquake hits south Kyrgyzstan

NOV. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – An earthquake measuring 5.9 on the Richter Scale struck southern Kyrgyzstan, around 20km south-east of Osh, monitoring websites reported. There were no reports of casualties and it is not clear, yet, how deep the earthquake was.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 257, published on Nov. 20 2015)

Kyrgyzstan troubles with EEU

NOV. 19 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – There are still hundreds of teething problems that Kyrgyzstan has to overcome to successfully complete its integration into the Kremlin-lead Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), the country’s representative on the EEU’s board, Danil Ibraev, told media. Kyrgyzstan joined the group, which also includes Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia, in August. Kyrgyz business owners have complained about bureaucracy.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 257, published on Nov. 20 2015)

Currencies: Kyrgyzstan’s som, Kazakhstan’s tenge

NOV. 13 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Kyrgyz Central Bank intervened in the currency market, selling around $14m on Friday to halt the fall of the som. It still fell 3% over the week finishing at 72.1/$1.

In Kazakhstan, the tenge was stable at 307/$1, although it reached a record low of 312/$1 on Monday.

The Georgian lari was stable at 240/$1 throughout the week.

In Armenia and Uzbekistan, currencies fell faster than previously. The Armenian dram lost 1% to 480.9/$1 and the Uzbek sum fell by 0.5% to just above 2,700/$1 on the official market. On the Black Market, the US dollar is reportedly selling at 6,200sum.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 256, published on Nov. 13 2015)

Foreign currency bank deposits increase in Kyrgyzstan

NOV. 10 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The amount of cash in Kyrgyzstan’s banking system held in foreign currencies jumped by 6.7% to nearly 65% between January and August, the Central Bank said according to Kyrgyz media reports.

This is a steep rise and highlights a lack of confidence in Kyrgyzstan’s som. It has lost around 26% of its value against the US dollar this year despite repeated interventions by the Central Bank to prop it up.

Inflation has also increased, although this has slowed over the past couple of months, pressuring people’s savings.

Interest rates are at a 10%, lower than they were at the start of the year but higher than at any time since 2012.

Like its neighbours, Kyrgyzstan has been struggling to deal with the fallout from a deepening economic malaise which has hit the region. One of its biggest problems has been a sharp drop in remittances sent back to Kyrgyzstan from workers in Russia.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 256, published on Nov. 13 2015)

Kyrgyz President wants change

NOV. 6 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Two years before he steps down as Kyrgyzstan’s president, Almazbek Atambayev, said he wants the country to fully embrace the parliamentary model of governance. Analysts interpreted this as an attempt to shore up power for his Social Democratic party.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 256, published on Nov. 13 2015)

Kyrgyzstan ditches energy ministry

NOV. 6 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyzstan disbanded its energy ministry and reinvented it as a holding company under the ministry of environment. It will hold all the government’s stakes in its various energy projects. The reasons for the transformation have not been made clear.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 256, published on Nov. 13 2015)

Beeline profit rise in Kyrgyzstan

NOV. 11 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Beeline Kyrgyzstan, owned by Russia’s VimpelCom, posted Q3 profits up nearly 19% from Q2. Beeline said profit had risen because Kyrgyz were more relaxed about spending more on their mobile phones. Compared to last year, Beeline’s customer base was up only 1.7%. Analysts and businesses have said that in Kyrgyzstan, people are spending more and more time on their mobile phone surfing the web.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 256, published on Nov. 13 2015)

Business comment: A dangerous ripple effect

NOV. 13 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The whole post-Soviet region has faced a steep economic downturn over the past year, leading to regional trade imbalances that have travelled across borders.

Initially, the fall in the value of the Russian rouble hit the Kazakh tenge. Despite a 20% devaluation in Feb. 2014, the tenge’s peg to the US dollar made it increasingly expensive against the rouble. When the rouble started to lose double- digit value against the US dollar, the tenge held its US dollar trading point, making it increasingly expensive. For the first eight months of this year, cheap Russia goods flooded Kazakhstan.

Eventually, in August, the Kazakh Central Bank effectively ordered another devaluation by ditching a US dollar peg. The graph below illustrates this clearly. It shows the rouble/$1 rate and the rouble/tenge rate matching each other until August. The value of the rouble, according to the graph, halves against the US dollar and the tenge.

In August, though, there is a sharp correction in the trading rate of the rouble/tenge. It diverges, violently almost, with the rouble/$1rate. The graph shows that the tenge is still stronger than the rouble compared to June 2014, but the differential is reduced.

And this is where the ripple effect carried through to neighbouring Kyrgyzstan.

Thee blue line on the graph represents the rouble/som rate. It, broadly, matches the peaks and troughs of the rouble/$1 rate, suggesting an informal peg to the US dollar.

The Kyrgyz Central Bank, though, has clearly tried to devalue the som independently too, as the rouble/som rate diverges slightly from the rouble/$1 rate.

The yellow line shows the tenge/som rate, and clearly depicts the change in relative values of the two neighbours’ currencies. The som has been weaker against the tenge for most of the year, as shown by the fairly shallow but pronounced trough. This changes after the tenge devaluation in August.

A currency domino effect, although slower than analysts had predicted, is rippling through Central Asia. The rouble is an optimal benchmark to observe this phenomenon.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 256, published on Nov. 13 2015)