NOV. 4 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The World Health Organisation (WHO) declared Kyrgyzstan to be free of malaria, marking the culmination of a 15 year plan to eradicate the disease. Kyrgyzstan had been free of Malaria from the mid- 1960s until the late 1980s and 1990s when migrant workers brought it back into the country from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
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(News report from Issue No. 304, published on Nov. 11 2016)
NOV. 11 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Air traffic in Central Asia and the South Caucasus continues to suffer from the regional economic slump, as major international carriers cut flights and leave the market to fickle domestic players.
Most notably this year, British Airways cut its London-Baku link, the last remaining destination for the British flag carrier in the region. The connection had lasted over 20 years, ever since BP started to negotiate the so-called Contract of the Century.
Demand for air transport, however, has shrunk, especially in the business market. Low
commodity prices have made many regional business unprofitable. This, added together with some damaging reputational issues, such as the delisting of Kazakhstan’s ENRC from the London Stock Exchange, have made many Western businesses wary of the region.
So it’s not surprising that Turkish Airlines dropped its connections with Osh and Khujand when it decided to downsize its global network because of a drop in demand. The second-largest cities in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan just cannot make the cut for commercially viable air links.
Turkmenistan’s new flights to Georgia were also postponed indefinitely this week, a sign that even diplomatically-motivated aviation routes need to be profitable.
On the positive, the Russian and Tajik aviation committees agreed a deal to end their short-lived dispute over routes. This is important, vitally important, for Tajikistan’s migrant workforce who rely so heavily on Russia for their income.
Air routes have become part of a modern-day annual commute for people in developing countries, needed to carry them to waiting jobs.
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(News report from Issue No. 304, published on Nov. 11 2016)
NOV. 11 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Encouraging production results at Kyrgyzstan’s largest gold mine, Kumtor, supported Centerra Gold shares in Toronto, although they were weighed down by a fall in the price of gold.
The company said that because a court in Bishkek has restricted its access to cash held by its Kumtor gold mine, it could not pay a quarterly dividend and may have to seek a cash injection to continue operations. It didn’t give any more details of this but it would be a departure from previous policy.
The spat with the Kyrgyz government, which has become increasingly heated in the past two years, seems to be constantly on the verge of breaking point.
In general, though, Centerra’s share price has followed the price of gold. However, should news from Kyrgyzstan continue to be negative, Centerra’s stock price might start diverging from this pattern.
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(News report from Issue No. 304, published on Nov. 11 2016)
NOV. 9 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan’s parliament approved the composition of a new government, still dominated by Pres. Almazbek Atambayev’s Social Democratic Party, after a row over a referendum next month led to the collapse of the previous coalition. Two parties, Kyrgyzstan and Bir Bol, have entered the coalition and been given ministerial positions.
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(News report from Issue No. 304, published on Nov. 11 2016)
NOV. 8 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkish Airlines, Turkey’s flagship carrier, dropped Osh, Kyrgyzstan’s second-largest city, and Khujand, a major city in northern Tajikistan, as destinations in a global revision of its connections. Turkish said it was suspending flights to 22 destinations and making around 30 aircrafts redundant in an effort to focus only on profitable routes.
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(News report from Issue No. 304, published on Nov. 11 2016)
NOV. 11 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — >> I’ve just read that the World Health Organisation (WHO) has declared Kyrgyzstan to be free of malaria. Is this important? What does this mean?
>>Put simply, it means that Kyrgyzstan has done a good job at stamping out malaria. To be declared free of malaria, a country has to prove that there have been no cases for three consecutive years. It’s good PR for Kyrgyzstan and should make it a more attractive destination for tourists to visit. It’s an image thing. Malaria was never a major problem in Kyrgyzstan but publicity from WHO about combating it will go down well.
>> Got it. You say that it wasn’t a major problem but how serious was malaria in Kyrgyzstan, then?
>> It had been more or less stamped out under the Soviet Union, mainly due to industrialisation and living standards rising, but it re-appeared in the 1990s. This was a tough period, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, with the economy performing badly. There were very few jobs in Kyrgyzstan and healthcare was underfunded. Migrant workers brought malaria back to Kyrgyzstan and in 2002, it suffered what the WHO described as a “malaria epidemic” with 2,700 reported cases. Backed by the WHO, the Kyrgyz government ran a malaria eradication strategy which targeted improving healthcare and strengthening awareness of the disease. By 2011, the number of malaria cases reported to have been picked up in Kyrgyzstan was three, dropping to zero in 2012. The campaign has been a success.
>> Does this all mean that Kyrgyzstan has become something of a WHO poster-boy in Central Asia?
>>Not exactly. It still has plenty of issues to deal with such as high rates of alcohol consumption and smoking, as well as HIV and tuberculosis problems. These issues are generally shared with other countries in the former Soviet Union. Public health in the region is always going to be a continual battle.
>> And what about the other countries in the region?
>> Kazakhstan has also been declared malaria-free and the number of cases in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan has fallen dramatically. Both are on course to achieving the WHO’s malaria-free certificate. For Tajikistan, in particular, this would be a major achievement. At its peak in 1997, Tajikistan reported nearly 30,000 new cases of malaria. Last year it reported zero cases and the WHO has said that it is on course to achieve malaria-free status. This is a good news story from Central Asia. Eradicating malaria will save lives and take the strain off the health sector. Of course, it may reappear but for now, malaria is being defeated in the region. The WHO has no data for Turkmenistan.
>> That’s impressive. So, is it all good news for Central Asia’s healthcare system?
>> No. While malaria may be being beaten, other diseases are still a problem. Kazakhstan reports seasonal outbreaks of the bubonic plague. These are localised and transmitted by fleas living off infected rodents. One or two people die each year from the disease but it has never threatened to become widespread. In Tajikistan, polio, which was thought to have been eradicated, was reported in the south of the country in 2011. In total, nearly 500 people were reported to be infected and the WHO declared an epidemic. At least 29 people died before the outbreak was brought under control six months later. In Kyrgyzstan, also, there have been recent public health scares. This included an outbreak of measles in 2015. Out of 22,000 recorded in the wider Europe region that year, a third were in Kyrgyzstan
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(News report from Issue No. 304, published on Nov. 11 2016)
BISHKEK, NOV. 7 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Canadian mining company Centerra Gold, owner of the Kumtor mine in Kyrgyzstan, reported a profitable Q3 for the first time in five years because it had cut costs and processed higher grade, and more valuable, gold but said it is still unable to access cash held in the company’s bank account.
Also, in the first nine months of 2016 the company turned a profit of $87.9m, compared to $44.5m in the same period last year. Centerra also revised upwards by 7% its yearly production guidance to 520,000 – 560,000 ounces. This is important because Kumtor is the single biggest economic asset in Kyrgyzstan, delivering around 10% of its total GDP.
But Centerra, which is 32% owned by the Kyrgyz government, also said that Bishkek’s Supreme Court rejected its appeal in October against a freeze of Kumtor’s bank account. Importantly, the Supreme Court’s decision came just one day after Centerra finalised the buyout of Canada’s Thompson Creek, which Kyrgyz lawmakers had fiercely opposed.
A Bishkek Court has frozen Kumtor’s bank accounts since June because of an unpaid environmental fine. Centerra has said the fine is politically motivated. The two sides have been locked in a row over ownership of the Kumtor gold mine.
CEO Scott Perry said the ongoing spat meant Centerra could not pay a dividend this quarter and hinted it may have to raise external finance.
“Absent access to cash held by KGC (Kumtor), the Company expects that it will be required to raise financing in order to fund construction and development expenditures on its development properties or to defer such expenditures,” he said in Centerra’s statement. The Kyrgyz government has not commented.
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(News report from Issue No. 304, published on Nov. 11 2016)
BISHKEK, OCT. 31 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Delegations from Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan met to agree solutions to 49 long-running border disputes around the Ferghana Valley which, earlier this year, had threatened to tip into conflict.
The agreements mark the next stage in an unprecedented and surprising detente between the two rivals since Uzbek PM Shavkat Mirizyoyev was appointed acting president after the death of Islam Karimov in September.
This was the second of two meetings between the Uzbek and Kyrgyz deputy PMs. A third meeting is scheduled before the end of the year.
Bishkek-based analyst Elmira Nogoybaeva said the change in attitude in Tashkent was welcome but that Kyrgyzstan would need to see whether this was a genuine change of heart or a temporary fad.
“Such meetings are always welcomed by Kyrgyzstan, the question is how long will they last,” she said. “We all look to these meetings with optimism.”
The Ferghana Valley lies at the heart of Central Asia and analysts have previously said that if tension between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan over borders boils over into conflict, and this year there have been reports of Kyrgyz and Uzbek soldiers squaring up to each other, it will pull the whole region into war.
In Bishkek, people were optimistic. Ainagul, 43, said it was a positive but there would be problems ahead.
“Of course, it is good that borders are being delineated, now Kyrgyz people will know to whom territory belongs, and it will prevent conflict between Kyrgyz and Uzbek,” she said. “I still doubt though that conflicts on borders will stop altogether as we still have problems even on the Kyrgyz- Kazakh border which was supposed to have been delineated.”
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(News report from Issue No. 303, published on Nov. 4 2016)
NOV. 2 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Chinese PM Li Keqiang visited Bishkek for a ministerial meeting of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation members, a first step in an 8-day tour of Central Asia and Eastern Europe. Mr Li will also visit Kazakhstan, his second visit this year, before flying to Latvia and Russia. During his visit to Kyrgyzstan, Mr Li also said that he hopes that the investigation into a car bomb at the Chinese embassy in August can soon be concluded.
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(News report from Issue No. 303, published on Nov. 4 2016)
BISHKEK, NOV. 3 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan formed a new coalition government built around the Social Democratic Party, the party of President Almazbek Atmabayev, which kept Sooronbai Jeenbekov as PM.
The relative speed that parliament was able to patch together a government coalition will cheer investors and businesses who were worried about a prolonged period of instability. The previous government fell apart only 10 days ago over rows about an impending referendum.
Retaining Mr Jeenbekov, PM since May, will also boost confidence in Kyrgyzstan’s ability to withstand political stresses.
The new government coalition includes the Bir Bol and Kyrgyzstan parties, two minor parties. The coalition, though, only has a thin parliamentary majority with 68 seats in the 120-seat chamber.
A row over a referendum planned for Dec. 11 split the previous coalition government. The referendum focuses on giving more power to the PM, a shift that opponents of President Atambayev have said has been engineered to allow him to take the empowered PM job once he leaves the presidency next year. He has denied that he has such plans.
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(News report from Issue No. 303, published on Nov. 4 2016)
