JAN. 31 2011 (The Conway Bulletin) – From presidential palaces across the South Caucasus and Central Asia, the spontaneous uprisings that have dislodged Ben Ali after 23 years running Tunisia and now threaten the 30-year reign of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt are worrying.

Perhaps the ruling elite in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are most concerned. In Kazakhstan, President Nursultan Nazarbayev has ruled for 20 years and in Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev effectively inherited the presidency from his father who ran the country from 1993.

This year Kazakhstan had planned to extend the 70-year-old Mr Nazarbayev’s rule until 2020 through a national referendum. That plan has now been scrapped.

In Azerbaijan, discontent has been growing against a ban on headscarves and the authorities have detained several senior Islamist leaders. Immolation triggered the revolution in Tunisia and according to news reports, on Jan. 20 in Azerbaijan a farmer frustrated over police corruption also committed immolation. His death may not have sparked the public outrage that it did in Tunisia but the authorities are wary.

In Yerevan, protesters angry about corruption and mismanagement have been gathering for the biggest rallies against Armenia’s government since 2008 when 8 people died in clashes between protesters and soldiers.

The Rose Revolution swept Mikhail Saakashvili to power in Georgia in 2003 and, tellingly, its elite have given Tunisia’s so-called Jasmine Revolution a relative quiet reception. A few years ago Mr Saakashvili may have applauded the Jasmine Revolution but in the last three years he has faced a wave of discontent and now it is viewed as a potentially destabilising factor.