JAN. 5 2015, (The Conway Bulletin) — Crude oil and oil product shipments from the Georgian port of Batumi fell by around 22% in 2014 compared to 2013 because of lower than expected exports from Kazakhstan and re-routing through pipelines, a port official told Reuters. Batumi oil terminal is controlled by Kazakh state energy company KazMunaiGas.
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(News report from Issue No. 213, published on Jan. 7 2015)
JAN. 1 2015, (The Conway Bulletin) — After a year long build up, Armenia joined the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU). The EaEU also includes Kazakhstan and Belarus. Kyrgyzstan will join in May. Critics of the project have said that it is a Kremlin power grab.
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(News report from Issue No. 213, published on Jan. 7 2015)
>>Aliyev charged in Austria, Ketebayev arrested in Spain>>
DEC. 30 2014, (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev and his associates have scored two more notable victories over their opponents.
A court in Austria charged Rakhat Aliyev, Mr Nazarbayev’s former son-in-law, with kidnapping and murdering two bankers in 2007 in Kazakhstan. Three days earlier, police in Spain arrested Muratbek Ketebayev, a Kazakh opposition leader linked to the 2011 uprising in the town of Zhanaozen in western Kazakhstan.
Mr Ketebayev was co-founder of the Alga! Party which was close to Mukhtar Ablyazov, for many year’s Mr Nazarbayev’s main opponent until his arrest in France in 2013.
Mr Nazarbayev has been after the extradition of both Mr Aliyev and Mr Ketebayev for years. He wants to avenge what he considers his betrayal by Mr Aliyev in the mid-2000s when he was married to Dariga Nazarbayeva, Mr Nazarbayev’s eldest daughter, and also the uprising at Zhanaozen when police shot dead 15 protesters, triggering the most serious crisis of his presidency.
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(News report from Issue No. 213, published on Jan. 7 2015)
>>Membership to become political ahead of elections>>
DEC. 23 2014, (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan signed a deal that will make it the fifth member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU) in May.
At a meeting in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the union, which from Jan. 1 includes Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia as well as Russia, would benefit from Kyrgyzstan’s membership.
“All the participants of this integration process are already experiencing its real benefits,” media quoted Mr Putin as saying.
“We are convinced that Armenia and Kyrgyzstan’s membership in the Eurasian [Economic] Union meets the key national interests of both countries.”
Many analysts, though, and people on the streets of Bishkek questioned whether there would be any real economic benefit. Instead, they said that Kyrgyzstan had joined the Eurasian Economic Union for political rather than economic reasons.
Kyrgyzstan is, largely reliant on Russia for economic and military support, but its membership of the Eurasian Economic Union is likely to become a political issue later this year in the run up to its parliamentary election, scheduled for October.
In an interview with Russian state-linked newspaper Rossiskaya Gazeta before the official signing ceremony, Kyrgyz president Almazbek Atambayev waived aside concern.
“When making decisions, we guide solely by economic expediency,” he said.
“This step will revive our industry, strengthen security, open borders with neighbouring countries, improve the standard of living of the people. Entry into this union opens up new opportunities for economic development.”
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(News report from Issue No. 213, published on Jan. 7 2015)
DEC. 14 2014, (The Conway Bulletin) — China agreed to invest $3.8b into developing Kazakhstan’s potash deposits to produce a mineral that can be used in fertiliser production. The massive investment both underscores China’s interest in Kazakhstan and will also help Kazakhstan diversify its economy away from oil and gas.
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(News report from Issue No. 213, published on Jan. 7 2015)
DEC. 22 2014, (The Conway Bulletin) — In a televised address, Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev said he had a plan to counter falling oil prices even if they fell below $40/barrel. Oil prices have now halved from their height last summer to around $50/barrel. Kazakhstan has been building up a reserve of cash to deal with a slump.
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(News report from Issue No. 213, published on Jan. 7 2015)
DEC. 21 2014, (The Conway Bulletin) — Nurali Aliyev, the 30-year-old grandson of Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, became deputy mayor of Astana. The move sparked both allegations of nepotism and speculation that Mr Nazarbayev may be grooming Mr Aliyev, son of his eldest daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva as a successor.
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(News report from Issue No. 213, published on Jan. 7 2015)
DEC. 5 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The consortium developing the Karachaganak oil and gas site (KPO) in west Kazakhstan denied that a gas leak at its plant poisoned 20 children and three teachers at a school in a nearby village.
Ambulances rushed the children and teachers to hospital after they suddenly fainted on Nov. 28.
KPO made the statement after Kazakh media widely quoted the Prosecutor-General for Kazakhstan’s western region, Serik Karamanov, saying that there had been a brief gas leak the day before the mass fainting at the Karachaganak site only a few kilometres away from the village.
The KPO statement said: “A mobile environmental monitoring station has also been despatched to Berezovka village and has reported no exceedances above the official Maximum Permissible Concentration limits.”
Whether the Kazakh authorities agree, remains to be seen.
Mr Karamanov was clear about what he thought may have been the cause of the poisoning.
“It has been established that at 14:19 on November 27 at the gas-processing complex of KPO, there occurred a discharge of condensate for a period of two minutes,” he said according to local media reports.
The incident is a reminder of the tension at local levels between the foreign-led projects in the energy sector and local communities who accuse them of not doing enough to protect their environment.
Karachaganak is important to Kazakhstan. It is considered one of the country’s most successful projects, and produces around 40% of Kazakhstan’s gas and 13% of its oil. Britain’s BG Group and Italy’s ENI own a 29.5% stake each, Chevron owns 18%, Russia’s Lukoil owns 13.5% and the Kazakh state oil and gas company, KazMunaiGas owns 10%.
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(News report from Issue No. 212, published on Dec. 10 2014)
DEC. 9 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – The IMF cut Kazakhstan’s growth rate for 2014 to 4.3% from 4.6% because of a slump in oil prices and the downturn in Russia’s sanction-hit economy. It also said Kazakhstan needed to cut more of its non-performing loans (NPLs) from its banking sector. Kazakhstan has one of the highest proportions of NPLs in the world.
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(News report from Issue No. 212, published on Dec. 10 2014)
DEC. 8 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Alongside Armenia, Kyrgyzstan will finally join the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union in 2015 despite few analysts deeming it ready or suited to full membership.
Bishkek will sign accession documents on Dec. 23, although it could be May before it adopts the protectionist taxes slapped on goods from outside the union, Kyrgyz PM Djoomart Otorbayev told journalists.
Eurasian Economic Union officials have even said they will allow Chinese goods “for domestic consumption” to enter Kyrgyzstan according to pre-existing Kyrgyz tariffs for an unspecified period of time, a concession that suggests other members view Kyrgyzstan’s membership as symbolic.
Kyrgyzstan first agreed in 2010 to enter a trade bloc with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan — the current members of the Customs Union which will morph into the Eurasian Economic Union next year — so it has been a long wait.
But Kyrgyzstan has an economy a tenth the size of Belarus’, an unresolved row over ownership of the Kumtor gold mine, its single largest industrial unit, and worries about rising inflation. This makes it a potential weak link.
Arkady Gladilov, editor of local analytical website polit.kg noted that Kyrgyzstan has had three prime ministers in the time it has been committed to joining the bloc. He said the government may have been dragging its feet over Eurasian Economic Union accession.
“Russia is facing a difficult time with sanctions, and Kyrgyzstan’s own picture is far from rosy. If I were them, I would probably do the same in their position,” he told the Conway Bulletin.
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(News report from Issue No. 212, published on Dec. 10 2014)
