JAN. 19 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — In new 2015 predictions, the
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said
Kazakhstan would grow by 1.5% this year, a sharp drop from the 5.1%
predicted in September. The EBRD downscaled Kazakhstan’s growth
estimates because of ongoing rouble and oil price falls.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
>>Nazarbayev summons his chief economic lieutenant for talks>>
JAN. 16 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakh president Nursultan
Nazarbayev summoned the head of Samruk Kazyna, the country’s
sovereign wealth fund, for crisis talks over the falling price of
oil and the drop in the value of the Russian rouble.
The meeting highlights just how worried Mr Nazarbayev and his
senior ministers are about the recent economic downturn. Most major
financial institutions now expect the Kazakh economy to grow by
only 1.5% this year, a relatively small amount.
When Mr Nazarbayev announced last year a new economic policy, he
aimed to enter the New Year with a Keynesian industrial programme
that would have injected billions into construction projects and
subsidies.
Currency depreciations and oil markets, however, have shattered the
plan.
After his meeting with Mr Nazarbayev, Umirzak Shukeyev, the Samruk
Kazyna chief, said: “The goal is to reduce administrative costs by
20% and investment engagements by 18%.”
This, then, is the opposite of what had been promised.
The most feared buzzwords on the streets from Almaty to Atyrau are
devaluation and austerity. Several consulting and investment firms
have forecast a devaluation in the first quarter. The research
branch of Kazakhstan’s second largest lender, Halyk Bank, told
Bloomberg that they deem a depreciation of the tenge as inevitable.
The leader of the National Business Association, Rakhim Oshakbayev
publicly asked the government to protect private companies from the
risk of devaluation (Jan. 20).
In Kazakhstan, the government is expected to act to reverse the
economic downturn but with no significant increase in hydrocarbon
and commodity output, its only option is to dig into the reserves
of the sovereign fund and hope for the best, or so it often seems.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
NEW YORK, JAN. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The radical group IS is recruiting heavily in Central Asia, the influential think tank International Crisis Group (ICG) wrote in a new report, a phenomena that could destabilise the region in the medium and long term.
In perhaps the most detailed assessment of the recruitment drive by IS in Central Asia so far, the ICG estimated that between 2,000 and 4,000 men and women had been attracted by IS propaganda to travel to Syria and fight for the radical group.
“Should a significant portion of these radicalised migrants return, they risk challenging security and stability throughout Central Asia,” ICG wrote in its 16-page report.
“Their [the five Central Asian states] security services — underfunded, poorly trained and inclined to resort to harsh methods to compensate for a lack of resources and skills — are unable to deal with a challenge as intricate as radical Islam.”
Among the incentives for Central Asians to enlist in IS ranks, the ICG points to three main triggers: The opportunity to join a religious cause abroad otherwise suppressed at home; the rejection of gloomy economic prospects; the chance to express repressed political views.
Other causes are outlined. The lack of a proper education with youth members of Islamic congregations resorting to unofficial Muslim training; the lack of social safety nets for women; the accessibility to Turkey, the major entry point for the northern battles in Syria.
The ICG argues that IS is reviving the violence among extremist groups in Central Asia as well. The ICG called for the enforcement of strict rules on terrorism and tighter security monitoring by the states in the region.
In the short-term at least, ICG wrote, preventative measures are essential for combating the IS recruitment.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
ENDS
Copyright — The Conway Bulletin
JAN. 16 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Spanish authorities
released from detention Kazakh opposition figure Muratbek
Ketebayev. Kazakhstan wants Mr Ketebayev extradited to face
criminal charges, including rebellion. Reports said Spain had still
not made a decision on his extradition.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
JAN. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The market may have priced in
another devaluation but Kairat Kelimbetov, head of the Kazakh
Central Bank, said he would not allow fluctuations in the currency.
Mr Kelimbetov has been saying for months that despite the falling
Russian rouble and a drop in oil prices, the Kazakh tenge would not
devalue.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
>>IS have been recruiting heavily from Central Asia>>
JAN. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan is desperate not
to get dragged into the debate over IS recruitment from Central
Asia.
Its intelligence services issued a rare statement denying that two
men murdered on a video last week were Kazakh. In the video the two
men spoke Russian and were accused of being members of the Russian
spy agencies. One man identified himself as coming from south
Kazakhstan.
The Kazakh intelligence services, though, said that this was not
the case.
In the IS video a young boy, who could be of Kazakh ethnicity,
shoots the two men in the head.
IS, a radical Islamic group based mainly in war-torn Syria,
recruits heavily from Central Asia and is a growing threat to the
region’s stability.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
JAN. 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazatomprom, Kazakhstan’s
nuclear agency, has agreed a $450m debt deal with Western banks.
The deal, and its size, show that despite an economic downturn some
Kazakh companies are still considered a relatively good bet.
Kazakhstan owns 15% of the world’s uranium supplies.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
>>Currency devaluation inflated early data>>
JAN. 13 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The number of property deals in Kazakhstan dropped by over 13% last year, the State Statistics Committee data showed, more evidence of a downturn in the economy.
The biggest drops in the number of property transactions were in North Kazakhstan — a fall of 25% in the number of property deals in 2014 compared to 2013 — and the Akmola, Almaty and Karaganda regions which all had a fall of around 20%.
Only some of the western regions, experiencing something of an oil boom, enjoyed a small increase in the property market in 2014.
This is all bad news for Kazakhstan which is trying to keep its tenge currency strong despite a fall in the price of oil and a drop in the value of the Russian rouble.
Earlier, the shrink in Kazakhstan’s property market had been disguised by figures which showed that the value of the deals had actually increased by over 10% in 2014. A currency devaluation of 20% in February 2014 inflated the value of transactions in the Kazakh market.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 214, published on Jan. 14 2015)
JAN. 13 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Car imports to Kazakhstan from Russia have jumped in the past two months to 2,859 from 2,005 during the same period in 2013, Kazakh media reported quoting government officials. The upturn is linked to the currency discrepancies. The rouble has nose-dived but the Kazakh Central Bank has kept the tenge strong.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 214, published on Jan. 14 2015)
JAN. 13 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — A video distributed by the extremist group IS reportedly shows a Kazakh boy aged 10-years-old shooting dead two men who are said to have worked for the Russian intelligence agencies. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty said that the boy appears to be the same boy shown in an IS propaganda video at the end of last year.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 214, published on Jan. 14 2015)
