TRAIN 702TS/Kazakhstan, MAY 28 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Kazakh oil executive, Serik, was clear enough. The economic problems in the system were hitting and hurting everybody and, importantly, it was much worse than the authorities were letting on.

“It took me a year to find a job. It shouldn’t take that long” he said. “I know people who are selling their property because they just can’t find work. They are selling and getting out, moving to Singapore or elsewhere.”

Through the window the Kazakh steppe rushed past. At this time of year, the clumps of long grass were only just beginning to turn an arid brown.

Serik took another sip of his beer. The bar on the train was full of men drinking beer, cheerfully, killing time before they could return to their berths and sleep. It’s a 13-hour journey from Astana to Almaty on the Spanish-built Talgo train.

Serik was heading to Almaty to meet up with old university class- mates from his time at the Kazakh State University. In an ordinary year, he said that he would fly to Almaty but this year he was looking to save money.

“The jobs have disappeared and inflation is eating people’s salaries. Not many people are happy at all,” he said. He popped another peanut into his mouth and took a long sip of his beer.

A collapse in oil prices from 2014 and a recession in Russia, Central Asia’s economic driver, forced Kazakhstan’s economy into a downward trajectory.

It is recovering now, but slowly. The tenge has halved in value, companies have laid off staff and prices are rising, faster than salaries.

Serik’s frustrations at the Kazakh economy, and his warning that things were worse than the government was prepared to let on, were repeated across Kazakhstan. In Astana, an engineer working on the government’s tech projects complained that his salary had been kept the same for years. As a subcontractor the engineer was not covered by government wage rises of around 20%, even though the cost of living had risen between 20% and 40%.

“It’s all about saving now,” he said. “As for foreign summer holidays, forget it.”

The rate of inflation given by the engineer was confirmed by several other people. It was far higher than the official inflation rate of 8%, down from 18% in the middle of 2016.

Later, in Almaty a Russian real estate dealer said that the market had pretty much flatlined. Very little was being sold or bought as prices were too unstable.

Last year, too, buyers had started to insist that he accept tenge for property deals, adding another level of instability.

“Things will get better,” he said. “But, right now, it doesn’t feel good at all.”

And there is more evidence of this on the streets of Almaty, the country’s commercial hub.

Like cavities fouling a row of perfect white teeth, empty shops displaying ‘to let’ signs scarred Almaty’s main shopping streets.

ENDS

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(News report from Issue No. 330, published on May 28 2017)