DEC. 2 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Uzbekistan has taken the unusual step of banning drones from its airspace, media reported. The official reason for the ban is to secure its airspace and improve civilian flight safety. The real reason could be Uzbek paranoia about spying by neighbouring countries.
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(News report from Issue No. 211, published on Dec. 3 2014)
NOV. 27 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – German engineering company Bosch said it would open a 1,600sqm warehouse, that’s about a third of the size of a football pitch, in Tbilisi to supply power-drill equipment to Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. The opening of the Bosch warehouse is a vote of confidence in the region’s economy.
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(News report from Issue No. 211, published on Dec. 3 2014)
NOV. 24 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Seemingly trying to rile the West, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an enhanced military and strategic partnership with Abkhazia, one of Georgia’s two breakaway regions.
NATO immediately accused Russia of trying to annex the region which only Russia and a handful of its allies have recognised as independent.
Under the deal, Russia will defend Abkhazia’s borders and strengthen its military partnerships as well as give Abkhazia around $110m.
According to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, the new de facto Abkhazian president Raul Khajimba said the deal recognised “equal relations between two sovereign states”.
As well as various economic and military deals, Russia has around 4,000 soldiers stationed in Abkhazia.
Western countries suspect that Russia only encourages Abkhazia and South Ossetia to seek independence from Georgia to act as an irritation to Tbilisi. They also suspect that the Kremlin may have similar ideas for eastern Ukraine which is in the middle of a civil war, focused around Donetsk.
Russia and Georgia fought a brief war over South Ossetia in 2008. Relations are only normalising now.
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(News report from Issue No. 210, published on Nov. 26 2014)
NOV. 25 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Uzbek President Islam Karimov made a rare trip to Astana where he met Kazakh leader Nursultan Nazarbayev to discuss plans by Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to build extra hydropower capacity, an issue that has threatened to destabilise the region. Uzbekistan relies on water from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to feed its important cotton fields.
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(News report from Issue No. 210, published on Nov. 26 2014)
NOV. 21 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Russia’s lower house of parliament passed a law that ratified deeper economic cooperation with Kyrgyzstan, part of the process towards Kyrgyz accession into the Kremlin-led Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU). The deal will mean a $1b windfall in cash and loans from Russia to Kyrgyzstan.
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(News report from Issue No. 210, published on Nov. 26 2014)
NOV. 24 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan and the Gulf state of Kuwait are growing closer, as a recent bilateral agreement allowing visa-free travel for state officials showed.
Diplomatic delegations have been shuffling back and forth between the two countries ever since Tajikistan’s embassy in Kuwait opened in 2013.
Kuwait wants to import fresh water from Tajikistan; Tajikistan wants Kuwait’s oil, although how the logistics of that swap would work is unclear.
Currently bilateral trade is weak, registering just over $30,000 for the first ten months of this year. But a visit by Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon last year earned a promise of Kuwaiti investment in construction as well as the reconstruction of facilities in Tajikistan’s critical hydro and tourism sectors.
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(News report from Issue No. 210, published on Nov. 26 2014)
NOV. 21 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – As part of a tour of Central Asia, Swiss President Didier Burkhalter travelled to Uzbekistan. This was a rare trip to Uzbekistan by a Western leader, who are keen to avoid the Uzbek stigma of human rights abuses.
In a meeting, Uzbek President Islam Karimov and Mr Burkhalter discussed “mutual ties, the situation in the world, bilateral business relations and international organizations’ roles,” the official Uzbek media dryly report.
Although little official information is available about Mr Burkhalter’s visit, it is clear the Uzbek side had a few topics to discuss with him.
One issue was the $1b sitting in Swiss bank accounts that allegedly belongs to Gulnara Karimova, the Uzbek president’s daughter. Swiss banks froze that money after prosecutors launched a criminal investigation into suspected money laundering activities.
Ms Karimova is believed to be under house arrest in Tashkent, while other people the Swiss prosecutors wanted to interview have been jailed by Uzbek courts. The Uzbek side will probably use the Swiss president’s visit to attempt to salvage the frozen assets.
Another matter the official Tashkent would have been eager to discuss is the parliamentary elections in December, because Mr Burkhalter is also OSCE Chairperson- in-Office. The OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) sent a mission to Uzbekistan late October to assess elections monitoring needs. The ODIHR assessors recommend sending a limited observation mission due to a lack of competition.
Perhaps to incline Mr Burkhalter toward benevolence, President Karimov signed a decree on introducing amendments to a Swiss-Uzbek agreement on avoiding double taxation.
NOV. 24 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s Central Bank said it was prepared to spend millions of dollars propping up its currency, the dram, despite increased pressure to devalue.
Like other currencies across the South Caucasus and Central Asia region, falling oil prices and a devaluation in Russian rouble are pressuring the dram.
On Monday, Nov. 24, the dram was trading at 435 to $1, down 4% from Friday.
“The Central Bank reserves are enough to prevent any artificial fluctuations of the rate and secure financial stability,” the Central Bank said in a statement.
Perhaps but the warning signs are increasing and even the Central Bank’s statement smacks of desperation.
In the last three weeks, Reuters reported, the Armenian Central Bank has spent over $60m defending its currency.
Armenia is tied into Russia, politically, economically and emotionally. It has agreed to join the Kremlin’s Eurasian Economic Union in January and Russian business virtually runs the economy.
With oil prices and the rouble falling further it can only be a matter of time before currencies such as the dram also tumble again.
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(News report from Issue No. 210, published on Nov. 26 2014)
NOV. 20 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijani media reported on yet another trip to Ashgabat by the head of Socar, Azerbaijan’s oil and gas company, Rovnag Abdullayev.
Mr Abdullayev was in Ashgabat for the opening of major gas conference. It’s an important time for Azerbaijan- Turkmenistan relations because Turkmen President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov has agreed to sign up to a new pipeline running from Baku, the Azerbaijani capital, to Europe.
Visits by Mr Abdullayev to Ashgabat may appear fairly routine but each trip brings the two countries closer together.
Europe sees Turkmen gas as critical for reducing its reliance on Russian energy and considers the pipeline running from the Caspian Sea to central Europe to be the easiest way to supply the gas.
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(News report from Issue No. 210, published on Nov. 26 2014)
NOV. 24 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Latvian president Andris Berzins flew to Tbilisi for a two-day visit that will culminate in laying a wreath at a Georgian war memorial and a declaration of Georgia’s territorial integrity. This is important for Georgia because Latvia will hold the EU’s rotating presidency for the first half of 2015.
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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 210, published on Nov. 26 2014)
