APRIL 21 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – US President Barak Obama will not describe the killing of thousands of Armenians by Ottoman Turks in 1915 as a genocide, White House officials said. This will disappoint Armenia’s top officials.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 228, published on April 22 2015)
APRIL 16 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) -The United States has decided to cut its so-called assistance budget to Armenia which funds various social programmes run by USAID, the overseas development arm of the US government, and its embassy.
The US defended the cuts by saying that dealing with the rise of the Islamic extremist group IS, the Ebola epidemic in Africa and the civil war in Ukraine had placed extra pressure on its resources and that cuts had to be paid.
“These reductions in funding for certain of our assistance programs in Armenia were necessitated by budgetary demands and additional global priorities, and in no way reflect the quality of the programs that have been implemented, or the strength of the US-Armenia relationship,” the Voice of Armenia website quoted a US embassy statement as saying.
Sceptics, though, said the US decision may be linked to Armenia joining the Kremlin-led Eurasian Economic Union in January, effectively turning its back on further integration with the West. Turkey and Azerbaijan have also had their US assistance aid budget cut, although these two countries are far wealthier than Armenia and are less likely to feel the squeeze.
The US did not say by how much it would cut Armenia’s assistance budget although it said that since 1992, the US had given more than $2b to Armenia.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 228, published on April 22 2015)
APRIL 22 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Special forces from Kyrgyzstan, China, Russia, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan — all members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) — began exercises in Kyrgyzstan, the US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported. Analysts say the SCO is a military alliance.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 228, published on April 22 2015)
APRIL 20 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Iranian defence minister Hossein Dehghan travelled to Baku for talks with Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev in a ground-breaking diplomatic initiative.
The neighbours have been fierce regional rivals over the past few years and at times it has looked as if the rhetoric was going to lead to war.
But since President Hassan Rouhani came to power in Iran in 2013, relations have soothed. Perhaps, also, the diplomatic push by the United States and Iran to patch up their differences has helped.
Iranian news agencies quoted Mr Dehqan as saying: “The two countries enjoy common geopolitics and their common interests and threats have increased the necessity for the expansion of multilateral cooperation more than ever.”
But it’s not all that straight forward. Azerbaijan supports Saudi Arabia-led efforts in Yemen where its forces are leading a counter- attack against rebels backed by Iran, and Baku has also improved relations with Israel, Iran’s sworn enemy.
Still, realpolitik may prevail and the rivals could patch up their differences.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 228, published on April 22 2015)
APRIL 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev will visit Tehran later this year, signalling Kazakhstan’s eagerness to embrace Iran after the United States agreed to relax sanctions imposed on it.
Yerlan Idrissov, Kazakhstan’s foreign minister, made the announcement at a joint press conference with his Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif, in Astana.
“We expect the visit of President Nazarbayev to Iran and we hope that this visit will contribute to the development of our relations,” he said.
Mr Zarif was visiting Kazakhstan less than two weeks after agreeing a deal with the US in Lausanne, Switzerland, that could scrap sanctions on Iran in return for extra American oversight of the Iranian nuclear programme.
The US has said Iran wants to develop a nuclear weapon. Iran has insisted its nuclear programme is for civilian use only.
Mr Nazarbayev has visited Iran previously. He was one of the few international leaders to attend the inauguration of Iranian president Hassan Rouhani in 2013.
For Kazakhstan, Iran is an important consumer market, particularly for grain and steel products. Kazakhstan exports its products to Iran by ship across the Caspian Sea.
At the press conference in Astana, Mr Idrissov also said Kazakhstan supported Iran’s potential membership of the Russia and China-ed Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), an economic-security organisation focused on Central Asia.
Iran is already an observer member of the SCO. Russia has also said that it supports SCO membership for Tehran, a proposition that will alarm NATO and the US.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 227, published on April 15 2015)
APRIL 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan flew to Astana for a state visit. He is due to hold talks with Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev on Thursday which have been billed as important. Turkey is an influential regional power.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 227, published on April 15 2015)
APRIL 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The European Union is considering negotiating a loose association deal with Armenia, its ambassador in Yerevan, Traian Hristea, told the US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
This is significant as Armenia rejected a closer Association Agreement it had been negotiating with the EU in 2013 when it agreed to join the Kremlin-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).
Referring to an EU summit in Riga next month, Mr Hristea said: “After we receive the mandate from the member states (to negotiate a deal with Armenia), of course we will engage in negotiations.”
For Armenia, short on regional allies, this is vital. It had been worried that its membership of the EEU will block any further involvement with the EU. That, though, hasn’t been the case and the EU has been willing to engage Armenia despite its close alliance with Russia. Russia keeps a large military base in Armenia, it is Armenia’s biggest investor and controls the gas pipeline network.
Separately, Armenian media quoted President Serzh Sargsyan defending his decision to take the country into the EEU.
“I am convinced Armenia has made the right choice, and, I am sure, there would be many more difficulties in any other circumstances,” he was quoted as saying.
Many ordinary Armenians have said they would rather that the country had not joined the EEU.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)
APRIL 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Defence ministers from Turkey and Azerbaijan flew to Tbilisi to discuss improving cooperation. Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia agreed last year to set up trilateral meetings. Armenia has been cast aside from the group.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)
APRIL 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev visited Saudi Arabia only a few days after members of the United Arab Emirates’ royal family had travelled to Baku for talks.
Some analysts have said that Mr Aliyev is looking to boost his alliances with Arab states as a potential bulwark against improving US-Iran ties.
“Saudi Arabia will extend its investment in Azerbaijan. We are both Muslim countries and Azerbaijan has good relations with Saudi,” Vahid Ahmadov, an independent MP, told the Bulletin.
In many ways it suits Azerbaijan to have its neighbour, Iran, ostracised and demonised by the international community. The thinking goes that if Iran is considered a rogue state, the US and Israel need Azerbaijan more. This month, at talks in Switzerland, the US moved to relax sanctions imposed on Iran because of concerns about its nuclear programme.
The opposition ReAl movement said that Mr Aliyev had been trying to woo Arab states because he needed more cash for various pipeline projects.
“Azerbaijan will need huge money for the TAP and TANAP projects. Oil revenues are falling and the government needs to find loans,” media reports quoted Azer Gasimli, an opposition activist, as saying.
“The IMF and World Bank set disturbing standards which require economic reforms for Aliyev. For him it is better to find loans from Arab countries.”
The EU and Western companies are investing in Azerbaijani energy and the infrastructure needed to transport it to markets. Azerbaijan, though, needs cash now.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)
APRIL 8 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan have reportedly broken ranks with other former Soviet states and declined to sign a memo calling for sanctions on Russia to be dropped.
At a meeting of foreign ministers in Bishkek most members of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) agreed to back the petition which was to be sent to the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) (April 3).
But Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan — along with Ukraine and Moldova — declined to sign the document, the local language service of the US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported.
All three of the Central Asian and South Caucasus countries have form.
Azerbaijan’s cause is probably a sovereignty issue. It doesn’t want to set a precedent that would allow the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh to drift further from its control.
Uzbekistan’s reasons are more deep-rooted and linked to its traditional unilateral stance on issues concerning Russia.
And Turkmenistan could be just aiming to irritate Russia.
It appears that Ashgabat is locked in a worsening row with Russia over gas supplies and the devaluation of the rouble. Earlier this year, Turkmen president Kurbanguly Berdymkuhamedov blamed Russia for Central Asia’s economic troubles.
Regardless, the failure to secure the full backing of CSTO members in Bishkek is a — largely overlooked — diplomatic miss for Russia.
ENDS
Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved
(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)
