Tag Archives: international relations

Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s presidents to meet on Karabakh

NOV. 24 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev and Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan will meet in Paris on Dec. 1 to discuss their cease-fire over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, media reported.

The two countries are still officially at war over Nagorno-Karabakh and meetings between the two leaders are rare. Their last meeting was also in Paris in 2014.

Armenian-backed rebels control Nagorno-Karabakh but there are constant skirmishes that kill soldiers almost every week. Over the past few years tension over the region has ebbed and flowed, sometimes threatening to spill over into all-out war.

Earlier this month, the Azerbaijani ministry of defence said that its forces had killed two ethnic Armenian fighters. The Armenian government confirmed this and said that two of its soldiers had been killed by an Azerbaijanji sniper.

At previous meetings between Mr Aliyev and Mr Sargsyan, these normally take place in Paris or Moscow, there have been warm words and friendly photo-ops but no lasting moves to bring about a permanent peace to the region.

Only a 1994 UN-brokered cease- fire maintains a shaky peace. The war killed an estimated 30,000 people and created thousands of refugees.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 258, published on Nov. 27 2015)

Russia-Turkey row splits Central Asia + S.Caucasus

DEC. 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Russia is piling pressure on its partners in the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) to join it in blocking Turkish trade across the region, a move that could fracture regional alliances.

After a Turkish fighter-jet shot down a Russian fighter-jet over Syria last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin promised revenge. This included a ban on Turkish exports to Russia.

To tighten the ban, Mr Putin needs his allies in the EEU — Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan — to stop Turkish goods transiting through their territories into Russia. But it’s a clarion call which is likely to prove divisive for Central Asia and the South Caucasus where Turkey has strong cultural, trade and diplomatic links.

Of the EEU members, Belarus is a natural ally of Russia and will support Moscow. As will Armenia, which has strained relations with Turkey.

For Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan the issue is more complicated. They have good relations with both Turkey and Russia and will likely try to appease both sides as Kazakh foreign minister Yerlan Idrissov has said.

“Emotions are running high, but my president, knowing Mr Putin very well personally and knowing his great potential to be constructive and knowing personally (Turkish) President Erdogan, believes and hopes they will think strategically in this very difficult situation,” he told Reuters in an interview.

Outside the EEU, Turkey is likely to find more supporters. Turkmenistan sees Turkey as a natural ally and has been building up a rapport with Ankara while its relations with Moscow have worsened. It wants to pump gas to Europe and this means crossingTurkey.

With its 2008 war with Russia still fresh in the memories, Georgia naturally leans towards Turkey.

Azerbaijan, though, is Turkey’s biggest ally in the region. The countries are close culturally, politically and economically. Their militaries also often train together.

Although relations with Russia have improved over the past couple of years, it didn’t take long for Azerbaijan to rally to Turkey’s cause.

Azerbaijan cut by 20% cargo tariffs for Turkish trucks travelling from Baku across the Caspian to Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, a move that will irritate the Kremlin and exacerbate regional tension.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 259, published on Dec. 4 2015)

Turkmen president joins leaders at gas summit in Tehran

NOV. 23 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmen president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov flew to Tehran for the third Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), sometimes dubbed the OPEC of gas, taking the normally reclusive state into the mainstream.

Generally unwilling to participate in international organisations, Turkmenistan accepted an invitation from GECF to attended its forum as a guest. Mr Berdymukhamedov’s acceptance of the invitation showed that he wants to play a deeper role in shaping global energy prices and policy.

A disparate group of 12 major gas exporting countries, the GECF meets biannually to try to set the agenda for world gas prices. In contrast to OPEC, a group of oil exporting countries, it has little power to influence price or sway production plans.

Gas prices are generally indexed to oil prices.

At the Forum, Mr Berdymukhamedov also held a side meeting with his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani. Russian president Vladimir Putin also attended the forum.

According to Simon Pirani, senior researcher at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Turkmenistan’s activity at the Forum had a diplomatic, rather than commercial tone. He said Turkmenistan remain fixed to its China-centric export strategy.

“Exports to Russia will remain low, which will preserve relations with Russia, but there is not much that Turkmenistan can do in the short term to diversify its exports, especially due to its traditional policy of selling gas at the border,” Mr Pirani told the Bulletin.

GECF is a high profile, but still relatively impotent group. It aspires to hold the influence that OPEC wields but is more of a talking shop.

Members of GECF are Iran, Algeria, Bolivia, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Russia, Trinidad and Tobago, United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela. Azerbaijan, Iraq, Kazakhstan, the Netherlands, Norway, Oman and Peru have observer status.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 258, published on Nov. 27 2015)

Business comment: Eurasian Bank Council

NOV. 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Central Banks in the South Caucasus and Central Asia have had a rough year. Keeping up with the strengthening dollar and the falling rouble while monitoring inflation has been a tough test.

In an attempt to stick together during the economic downturn, some of the central bankers appear to have decided to use old infrastructure to continue their meetings and coordinate policies.

Confusion, however, clouds the various structures that are still in place.

The new body which met in Almaty this week was renamed the Eurasian Council of Central Bank Chiefs and is a spin-off of the now- defunct Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC).

It doesn’t overlap with the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) because Armenia is not in it and is no longer representative of the old EurAsEC, which officially closed down last year, as Uzbekistan is not a member.

And this says a lot about just how confusing economic integration has been in the region.

Since the EurAsEC was disbanded, the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) has become the integrationist body. Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia are part of the EEU.

So why brand it as EurAsEC? Why is Armenia out of the picture?

“Pressing economic questions” are the rationale behind this new body, according to Kazakhstan’s Central Bank.

The countries that form the new body are all in the midst of an economic crisis, but so are other countries that were not invited to the Eurasian banking council.

With the EEU in place and Tajikistan lined up to become a member, the decision to revive such a strange body, rather than another, is difficult to understand.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 258, published on Nov. 27 2015)

Armenia-EU finalise deal

NOV. 18 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia could finalise a deal with the EU before the end of the year, Armenian foreign minister Edward Nalbandian was quoted as saying. For the EU a framework deal with Armenia, a member of the Kremlin-lead Eurasian Economic Union, would be an important victory, especially after the rejection of the Association Agreement in 2013. For Armenia, close links with the EU are important to maintain.

ENDS