DEC. 20 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) – The latest flashpoint may have been a squabble over air traffic control arrangements but tension has been rising steadily throughout the year between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

Tajikistan is mountainous and controls Uzbekistan’s water supply which is vital for its valuable cotton harvest, while Uzbekistan controls Tajikistan’s gas supply which is vital for staying warm during the freezing winters. Add in a deep-rooted animosity between the Tajik and Uzbek leaders and it is a potent mix.

In 2007/8 the coldest winter for 40 years hit Tajikistan. Citing unpaid bills, Uzbekistan temporarily switched off the gas supply.

Since then, Tajikistan has pushed hard to improve its energy self-sufficiency and, backed by the Iranians, has started to build a dam on a tributary to the Amu Darya River which flows through Uzbekistan to the Aral Sea. The dam will produce hydroelectric power for a new power station but it will also stop water rushing down into Uzbekistan.

Tajikistan has accused Uzbekistan of blocking trade and supply routes in response to the construction of the dam and also laying mines around the border. Uzbekistan denies these accusations.

There is a wider international dimension — Russia and the United States are competing for influence while Iran has publicly backed Tajikistan. Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are also vying for lucrative contracts to host part of the NATO supply route into Afghanistan.

The interlocking geographic and demographic nature of Central Asia means that whatever happens to Uzbek-Tajik relations will reverberate around Central Asia.