MARCH 23 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — In the run-up to the 34th round of bilateral talks in Geneva between Georgia and Russia, the Russian foreign ministry accused its Georgian counterparts of a series of provocative statements designed to undermine the talks. The Geneva talks have been a vital part of the reconciliation process between Russia and Georgia since a war in 2008.
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(News report from Issue No. 322, published on March 27 2017)
MARCH 22 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Looking to boost investment from the UAE, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan travelled to Dubai to sign various deals. The most significant deal was a visa waiver between Armenia and the UAE. Media reports of Mr Sargsyan’s visit to the UAE said that discussions had focused on expanding bilateral relations, especially in tourism, agriculture and water management.
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(News report from Issue No. 322, published on March 27 2017)
TBILISI, MARCH 20/23 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — On the eve of visa-free access to the EU’s Schengen Zone for Georgians, interior minister Giorgi Mghebrishvili was in Brussels to meet officials from the EU and NATO to reassure them that Georgia would be a reliable ally.
Fighting organised crime, an issue that nearly scuppered Georgia’s chances of visa-free access to the Schengen zone last year, migration and terrorism dominated the meetings.
Dimitris Avramopoulos, the EU’s Commissioner for migration was quoted by media as saying: “Today with the minister we discussed stronger and deeper cooperation in the field of security, fight against organised crime and I can say that I am very happy with the outcome of this excellent discussion.”
After the meetings, Mr Mghebrishvili said Georgia would sign a memorandum of cooperation with EUROPOL, the EU’s crime- fighting intelligence unit.
Georgians will be able to travel to the Schengen Zone without a visa from March 28.
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(News report from Issue No. 322, published on March 27 2017)
ALMATY, MARCH 23 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — In a high-spirited and carefully choreographed meeting in Astana, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev lauded what they said would be a fruitful and fulfilling partnership between the two neighbours.
The meeting was important as it marks another genuine shift in diplomatic relations for Uzbekistan. Under Mr Mirziyoyev, Uzbek diplomats have been working hard to shake off their difficult image and to repair damage inflicted during the cantankerous 25 year rule of Islam Karimov.
“Kazakhstan wishes our strategic partner, neighbour and brotherly people of Uzbekistan, prosperity and well-being,” the Kazakh presidential website quoted Mr Nazarbayev as saying. “In the future, we look forward to a fruitful relationship in the framework of bilateral contacts.”
The diplomatic and economic relationship between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the most populous and wealthy countries in the region, is vital for Central Asia. If they work in harmony, then the other three coun- tries of the region will also prosper. If they squabble, as has been the case, then economic development will be slow.
This was the two leaders first meeting since September 2016 when Mr Nazarbayev travelled to see Karimov’s grave in Samarkand. Mr Mirziyoyev had then been acting president. He was officially sworn in as Uzbekistan’s second post-Soviet president in December.
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(News report from Issue No. 322, published on March 27 2017)
ALMATY, MARCH 15 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The third of a series of meetings held in Astana to discuss the civil war in Syria broke up without much sustained progress, delegates reported, a blow to Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s ambitions to establish his capital as a go-to centre for conflict resolution.
The main sticking point for the talks was a boycott by the rebels, they had sent a delegation to the first two rounds. It may also be that the peace talks have broken down irreparably after news on Monday that rebel forces had attacked government held Aleppo.
The talks are organised and run by Turkey, Iran and Russia and have no major Western participation other than at observer level. There is no UN involvement in the Astana talks, although Kazakhstan has been keen to draw parallels.
Despite spending most of the time going over old ground and also lacking a rebel delgation, the Kazakh foreign ministry released a statement lauding the talks as a vital part of the peace-making process in Syria.
“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan reiterates that the Astana meetings are an integral part of the Geneva process under the UN aegis and regards the results of the third International meeting on Syria in Astana to be a meaningful contribution to the process of political settlement of the Syrian crisis on Geneva platform,” it said.
In a statement released by the Russian foreign ministry, the Kremlin blamed unnamed groups for trying to sabotage the talks, a thinly disguised dig at the rebel factions who dropped out.
Mr Nazarbayev and Russian Pres- ident Vladimir Putin discussed the talks on March 18.
No details of the discussion was given to the media.
The three power-brokers said that they had agreed to reconvene in Astana for Round Four of the peace talks on May 3/4, although this statement was made before news of the March 20 rebel attacks on Aleppo.
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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)
MARCH 15 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkmen president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov travelled to Qatar to try to charm its leaders into investing in Turkmenistan. The Turkmen economy is under pressure from sustained low oil and gas prices. In particular Qatar’s state news agency said that Mr Berdymukhamedov was looking for investment in the so-called TAPI gas pipeline that will run from gas fields in Turkmenistan across Afghanistan to Pakistan and India, and also for investment in gas processing plants.
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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)
MARCH 16 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Imangali Tasmagambetov, formerly the mayor of Astana and Almaty and also an ex-defence minister, was sworn in as Kazakhstan’s ambassador to Russia. Mr Tasmagambetov had been considered a potential successor to President Nursultan Nazarbayev but most observers considered his shift to Moscow to be a demotion. Others argued that he needed to spend time with Kazakhstan’s most important ally, Russia, before he could be considered as a successor for President Nazarbayev.
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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)
MARCH 16 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan said that it had simplified visa rules for Iranians, matching a trend in the region. Iran and Kyrgyzstan have been boosting trade, diplomatic and tourist links. Georgia and Armenia have already scrapped visa requirements for Iranians and other countries are also relaxing rules. Iran is seen as an important economic driver for the region, especially since some sanctions were lifted last year.
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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)
MARCH 20 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has achieved remarkably little in its decade plus life.
Established formally in 2001, it grew out of a regional grouping aimed at seeking to define China’s borders with the former Soviet Union. Over time, it has expanded beyond its immediate neighbourhood to include countries as distant at Belarus and Sri Lanka as ‘dialogue partners’.
The current push to welcome both India and Pakistan is likely to further test the organisation’s already limited capability. The practical implications for Central Asia are unlikely to be dramatic, though in the longer term it may help bind Central and South Asia closer together and foster a greater sense of community across the Eurasian heartland.
In practical terms, the SCO has always been a fairly limited organisation. Seen initially by Russia as a way of controlling Chinese activity in Central Asia, for Beijing it has provided a useful umbrella under which to pursue their stealthy expansion in the region. For Central Asian powers, it provided another format in which to engage their larger neighbours. While the primary thrust of its activity has been in the security space, China has regularly sought to push it in an economic direction.
Yet, at the same time, all of the countries involved have largely pursued their own national interests through other pathways. The most recent demonstration was the establishment by Beijing of the Quadrilateral Cooperation and Coordination Mechanism (QCCM). Focused on managing the security threats from Afghanistan, the QCCM in many ways replicates a function which one would have expected the SCO to deliver.
The addition of Pakistan and India to the grouping is unlikely to change this dynamic.
All of the nations involved in the SCO will continue to function through their own bilateral and other multilateral engagements. But it will offer another forum in which India and Pakistan are obliged to interact and will also help further tie Central and South Asia together. These ties have been growing for some time. Kazakhstan has expressed an interest in participating in the China- Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and Indian President Narendra Modi visited Central Asia last year.
If India and Pakistan join the SCO, it will further help tie them together.
By Raffaello Pantucci, director of International Security Studies at the London-based Royal United Service Institute (RUSI).
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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)
MARCH 15 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev was in Paris to meet with French President Francois Hollande, a week after his foe Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan also travel to the Elysee Palace. The meeting was framed around ongoing talks to find a permanent peace for the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which Azerbaijan and Armenia-backed rebels have officially been at war over since the early 1990s. A UN ceasefire has held a shaky peace since 1994. There were no particular deals announced at the meeting.
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(News report from Issue No. 321, published on March 20 2017)
