Tag Archives: international relations

Tajikistan watches Afghan vote

APRIL 15 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Tajikistan is watching the ongoing presidential election in Afghanistan with interest.

If ethnic Tajik former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah defeats his main Pashtun rival, the former finance minister Ashraf Ghani, genuinely closer relations between the two neighbours may flourish.

Alexander Sodiqov an analyst and author of the Tajikistan Monitor blog said aside from being an ethnic Tajik there are other reasons why Dushanbe thinks a victory for Mr Abdullah would boost Tajik-Afghan relations.

“Abdullah had been very close to Ahmad Shah Massoud at the time when Tajikistan provided military and material support for the Northern Alliance. Dushanbe expects that Abdullah has not forgotten that support,” he said referring to the main anti-Taliban commander who was assassinated in 2001.

There is another important security question at stake.

“Abdullah’s main constituency base is in northern Afghanistan, and he fought against Taliban for a long time,” said Mr Sodiqov. “Dushanbe sees Abdullah’s possible presidency as an additional guarantee that Taliban militants would not threaten its porous southern border.”

The Tajik government has complained for a while that the withdrawal of NATO forces in 2014 will leave a security vacuum in Afghanistan. Trade has been growing between Tajikistan and Afghanistan, now worth over $100 million, but the West is hoping that relations grow closer still.

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(News report from Issue No. 180, published on April 16 2014)

Kyrgyzstan slows Customs Union accession

APRIL 15 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — For Kyrgyzstan membership of the Customs Union, comprising Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia, is looking ever less appetising.

Negotiations between Bishkek and the Customs Union countries at the beginning of the month failed to finalise the roadmap for the country’s accession and Kyrgyz officials have now stopped talking about entry in 2015.

At a minimum the Union’s highly protective tariffs would curtail Kyrgyzstan’s trade in re-exports with fellow WTO member China, worth up to 15% of its GDP.

Kyrgyz officials had been hoping to offset this with concessions on Chinese imports and a vague CU-financed stabilisation fund to promote domestic industries but with western sanctions on the horizon, Moscow no longer looks a model guarantor of Kyrgyzstan’s economic security.

Depending on the damage the Ukraine crisis reaps on the Russian economy, Bishkek may also fear for a series of keystone infrastructure projects the Kremlin had committed to investing in such as the Hydroelectric Power facility Kambar-Ata 2 and the civilian airport, Manas.

Long-term, migrant remittances, worth around a fifth of GDP according to the World Bank could also take a hit. The government’s one-time target of entry in 2015 now looks overly optimistic.

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(News report from Issue No. 180, published on April 16 2014)

Eurasian Union opponents meet in Kazakhstan

APRIL 12 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — It was overcrowded and barely organised but a meeting in Almaty that opposed Kazakhstan’s move towards a Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union was important.

Around 250 people, with an uneasy mix of different agendas from ultra-nationalists to human rights protesters, attended the meeting in a scruffy hotel.

The main complaints were a lack of transparency in the move and that Kazakhstan may lose its identity.

Speaking at the meeting, political commentator Dastan Kadyrzhanov said: “The Eurasian Economic Union is our Rubicon, a civilisational choice. If we pass it, there will be no way back.”

Opposition groups in Kazakhstan have a tough time. They have been hounded, detained, pushed off the streets. So for this meeting to pass off without protesters being detained was eye-catching.

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(News report from Issue No. 180, published on April 16 2014)

Armenians discuss Ukraine’s revolution

YEREVAN/Armenia, APRIL 16 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — It was a mild Saturday evening in mid-March in a French café in central Yerevan. A group of young friends, well young-ish, had sat down to discuss the biggest news topic of the week — the revolution in Ukraine.

“We should take lessons from the young Ukrainians who are fighting for their independence, for democracy, for human rights,” said Ani Kirakosyan, a 30-year-old human rights defender.

Jazz music floated across the room.

This sort of political conversation in Armenia is important. Last year, at the same time as Ukraine’s former president Viktor Yanukovich chose to side with Russia over the European Union, Armenia’s leadership was doing the same. Since then Armenia, which hosts a large Russian military base, has supported Russia in the UN over its annexation of Crimea. Russia’s other supporters include North Korea and Syria.

“They (Ukrainians) have now chosen the EU,” Kirakosyan continued with a hint of anger in her tone. “At first we were also angry but we did not follow our dream. We stopped at some point.””

Lusine Baghdasaryan, a 32-year-old economist nodded. She said apathy was the problem. “I just don’t believe we can do it. It seems nothing now makes us angry,” she said.

But, said 28-year-old Syrian-Armenian Hayk Ghukasyan, can the US and the West be counted on to help out? “There are no guarantees. Just look at what the US did with Syria,” he said.

Ghukasyan fled from Syria’s civil war and is now struggling to find a job in Armenia.

“We are a small country with the tough and unresolved territorial problem of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh),” he said. “If Azerbaijan smells fear they could resume war.”

People in Armenia are frustrated with their leaders but they also feel that they have few options. Geo-politically Armenia needs friends, and, for most, that means siding with Russia.

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(News report from Issue No. 180, published on April 16 2014)

Russia sanction could hit Kazakhstan

APRIL 15 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — The fallout from Ukraine’s revolution and the ensuing standoff between Russia and the West has created a headache for Kazakhstan.

If relations fray further the US and the EU may impose trade sanctions on Russia and these will impact Kazakhstan.

But the Kazakh energy sector is probably more robust than energy minister Uzakbai Karabalin made out last week.

Kazakhstan relies heavily on Russia as a transit country for its oil and it may have to find alternative export routes, but those routes do exist. This might include sending oil south, through Iran to the Persian Gulf.

Around a third of Kazakhstan’s oil exports flow through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) which owns the pipeline running from Atyrau in western Kazakhstan to Novorossiysk on Russia’s black Sea coast.

At first glance it looks as if any sanctions on Russia would hit CPC — the pipeline crosses Russia and feeds into a Russian mix of oil. But the CPC has international status and should, in theory, be exempt from sanctions.

Kazakhstan now also exports much of its oil to China, across the Caspian Sea and through the South Caucasus. Mr Karabalin’s concerns about the impact on Kazakhstan’s domestic oil-products market from a sanctions hit Russia also feels slightly overblown.

Kazakhstan has a shortage of refinery capacity and has to import oil products from China and Russia. This has been expensive and has threatened to push up prices.

If the West did impose sanctions on Russia and it did flood Kazakhstan with oil products, prices would drop.

Kazakhstan and the rest of Central Asia are exposed to Russia’s economy. If, under the weight of threatened sanctions, it stutters, so too does Central Asia. Kazakhstan’s energy sector, though, is more sheltered.

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Copyright ©The Conway Bulletin — all rights reserved

(News report from Issue No. 180, published on April 16 2014)

Uzbekistan jails Tajik spies

APRIL 3 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbekistan jailed three Tajik women for spying, potentially straining relations with neighbouring Tajikistan. The women were found guilty of photographing military hardware and passing on the information to Tajik agents. Relations between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are generally strained.

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(News report from Issue No. 179, published on April 9 2014)

Uzbekistan joins CIS free trade zone

APRIL 2 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbekistan officially joined the Russia-led CIS free trade zone, a rare collegiate move by the generally unilateral Uzbek leadership.

Russian President Vladimir Putin officially signed Uzbekistan in as a member of the group, a few weeks after Russia’s parliament had approved the plan.

The timing, for Uzbekistan, is slightly unfortunate. Uzbek president Islam Karimov agreed the move towards Russia in December last year when close ties were considered vital.

The United States was withdrawing from Central Asia, its main interest had been as a launch pad for missions to Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan no doubt wanted to balance China’s growing influence against Russia.

Uzbekistan pulls in most of its remittance cash from Russia, a vital plank of its economy.

Now, though, after its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, Russia is seen as a global pariah and increasingly heavy sanctions are set to appear.

Still, as a simple free trade agreement, rather than a global statement of geo-political intent, it is still a useful move for Uzbekistan.

It allows for the free movement of goods in the free trade zone, abolishes duties and taxes and introduces anti-dumping regulations.

The other signatures are Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova and Tajikistan. They signed up to the agreement in 2011.

(News report from Issue No. 179, published on April 9 2014)

Turkmenistan and Armenia boost ties

APRIL 8 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan flew to Ashgabat for talks with his Turkmen counterpart Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov. At the end of their meeting, they agreed to deepen bilateral relations. This is important for Armenia which needs to build more allies and for Turkmenistan for building its international profile.

(News report from Issue No. 179, published on April 9 2014)

Turkish PM visits Azerbaijan

APRIL 4 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkish PM Tayyip Erdogan visited his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev in Baku, his first overseas trip since winning local elections in March. The timing of Mr Erdogan’s visit underlines the importance of Azerbaijani-Turkish relations.

(News report from Issue No. 179, published on April 9 2014)

Chinese interest in Georgia grows

APRIL 4 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — The China Development Bank will send a high-level delegation to visit Tbilisi, media reported during a trip to Beijing by Georgian parliamentarians, a sign of Chinese interest in Georgia. China has been boosting links in the South Caucasus. It has opened a cultural school in Tbilisi and funded projects.

(News report from Issue No. 179, published on April 9 2014)