Tag Archives: inflation

Editorial: Emergency loan for Azerbaijan

JAN. 29 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The IMF’s arrival in Baku is a game-changer. For the Azerbaijani government to invite the IMF to Baku means that their economy is in a more perilous position then they had been letting on.

The manat has lost 35% of its value over the past month; demonstrations have stirred in regional cities; inflation is rising; jobs are disappearing.

We know all this but we’ve also been told that the Azerbaijani government has, officially at least, saved up around $35b in its sovereign wealth fund for exactly this sort of scenario.

Why then, would Azerbaijan invite the IMF to Baku to discuss a loan? The impression that the IMF’s arrival in Baku had created is that things in Azerbaijan are worse than they have been letting on. Perhaps the authorities haven’t really saved up $35b. Perhaps they don’t have access to all the $35b.

What is known is that IMF are in town until the end of next week and that Azerbaijan’s finances, and the extent of their dire financial scenario is currently shrouded in mystery.

ENDS

(Editorial from Issue No. 265, published on Jan. 29 2016)

Inflation in Azerbaijan to soar in 2016

JAN. 24 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Inflation in Azerbaijan in 2016 will measure between 10% and 12%, finance minister Samir Sharifov said on TV, up from a previous estimate of 3%. In 2015 inflation measured 4%. The sudden increase is linked to the sharp devaluation in the manat currency, Mr Sharifov said.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 265, published on Jan. 29 2016)

Inflation doubles in Kazakhstan

JAN. 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Inflation in Kazakhstan in 2015 measured 13.6%, nearly double the rate of 2014, media reported quoting the state statistics agency. The final tally confirms that prices increased rapidly after a tenge devaluation in August. The tenge has lost around 55% of its value since Feb. 2014.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 264, published on Jan. 22 2016)

Utility prices rise in Kazakhstan

JAN. 1 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Media in Kazakhstan reported that utility companies had increased water and electricity prices by up to 15%, more evidence of latent inflation in the Kazakh economy linked to a sharp drop in the value of the tenge. Analysts have said frustration is growing among ordinary people about price rises. Electricity price rises in particular are a sensitive issue across the S.Caucasus/C.Asia region.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 262, published on Jan. 8 2016)

Kazakh government cuts flour subsidies

JAN. 6 2016, ALMATY (The Conway Bulletin) — Bread prices are beginning to rise in Kazakhstan after the government cut flour subsidies, people working in the bread-making sector told The Bulletin.

The Kazakh government ended its subsidies for flour on Jan. 1, a move it flagged up in November as part of an overhaul of government spending designed to counter an economic slowdown. It has defended dropping subsidies as fair because it means that
the money saved can be re-focused on benefits for poorer sections of society. Asylzhan Mamytbekov, minister for agriculture, has said that flour subsidies were costing the government 9b tenge a year ($26m).

But the impact of the subsidy cut on bread-makers is already being felt.

In Almaty, Yerbol Beisembayev was going about his business buying bread from factories and re-selling loaves to shops. He said that a couple of factories had already closed because the cut in flour subsidies had made them unprofitable.

“Now everything will depend on who will get the best price for the flour,” he said. “The government has allowed bread (prices) to free float, just like the tenge.”

In August, the Central Bank ditched the tenge’s peg to the US dollar. This sent the value of the tenge crashing by around 40%.

It appears that, for now, bread producers are preferring to soak up the extra cost of the flour rather than pass it on to consumers. Most shops selling bread in Almaty said there had been a small price rise of 5 tenge a loaf — roughly 8%. This below the doubling of prices that analysts had predicted once flour subsidies were cut.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 262, published on Jan. 8 2016)

Inflation accelerates in Kazakhstan

JAN 5 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Annualised inflation in Kazakhstan hit 13.6% for the 12-months to the end of December, its highest rate for six years, the National Statistics Committee said. Inflation shot up in October after the tenge depreciated. In September, annualised inflation in Kazakhstan measured just 4.4%.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 262, published on Jan. 8 2016)

Armenia’s CBank cuts interest rates

DEC. 22 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s Central Bank cut its key interest rate by one percentage point to 8.75%, its lowest level for 11 months, because of a slowdown in inflation. It said that annualised inflation for the 12-months to the end of November measured 0.6% compared to 1.3% a year earlier. Slow global economic growth and low commodity prices have stalled prices in Armenia.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 262, published on Jan. 8 2016)

Georgia’s CBank talks of rate rise

DEC. 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Georgia’s Central Bank chief Giorgi Kadagidze hinted at another interest rate rise to control inflation. He said inflation would peak next year before dropping back. At the start of last month, Georgia’s Central Bank increased its key interest rate by 0.5% to 7.5% — it’s highest level since 2011.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 260, published on Dec. 11 2015)

Inflation rises in Kazakhstan

DEC. 4 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Inflation in Kazakhstan to the year ending Nov. 30 measured 12.8%, the state’s statistics committee said. The sharp prices rises show the impact of the tenge devaluation on the economy. The main inflation driver has been food prices.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 259, published on Dec. 4 2015)

Tajik somoni hits record low

DEC. 1 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan’s somoni currency fell to its lowest ever level of 7/$1 just as the Central Bank was bringing in draconian new rules which will shut all independent exchange kiosks within two months.

So far this year, the somoni has lost 31% of its value. The Central Bank has previously admitted that it is on the verge of running out of money, having spent its reserves propping up its ailing currency.

The Central Bank issued a statement saying that the remaining 763 currency exchanges would be closed over the next few months and that people would only be allowed to make currency exchanges through the banks.

Ordinary Tajiks have seen this before. In April, the Central Bank issued a similar edict which closed half the exchange booths in the country. It didn’t stop the currency slide, though.

Between April and the end of November, the somoni fell from 5.8/$1 to 6.7/$1, a fall of 15.5%.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 259, published on Dec. 4 2015)