Tag Archives: inflation

Inflation rises in Kazakhstan

MARCH 1 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Annualised inflation to the end of February measured 15.2%, its highest rate since 2008, the statistics agency said. The data is more evidence that the devaluation of the tenge last year by 50% has spurred overall inflation. The Central Bank had wanted inflation between 6 – 8%. It has now said its monetary policy is aimed at dampening inflation.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 270, published on March 4 2016)

Kazakh pensioners take jobs to survive economic slump

MARCH 4 2016, ALMATY (The Conway Bulletin) — Pensioners in Kazakhstan are giving up retirement and taking jobs to help them through a sharp economic downturn which has decimated the value of their tenge savings and their pension payments.

The trend is a major blow to the government ahead of parliamentary elections later this month. It had said that it will be able to look after all Kazakhs during the economic downturn.

But official data, suggested that for many pensioners in Kazakhstan, the downturn has been so heavy that they have had to return to work.

The size of the workforce aged over 65 in Kazakhstan, the usual retirement age, doubled in 2015, the ranking.kz website said quoting data from the state’s statistics centre.

In Almaty, a Conway Bulletin correspondent spoke to several elderly Kazakhs who had picked up a new job or had never quit work.

Nina Lozovaya, 81, was a chemistry and biology school teacher. She carried on working until she was 78. Now, though, her state teacher’s pension is so small that she was selling her clothes and other items on the street to earn money for medicine.

“The price for medications increased dramatically, and now I don’t have enough money to buy them,” she said. “Teachers’ pension is very small. I try to buy less medications now.” Her face crumpled with exasperation.

Further down the street an old woman was selling newspapers. She declined to be named but said: “I work because I need money, obviously.”

There is another side to the story behind Kazakhstan’s elderly workforce, though. People often carry on casual jobs after reaching retirement age to boost their income.

Sandugash, 73, worked in a small shop.

“After the death of my husband, I had many diseases and depression,” she said. “When I started working, each year I feel much better. And I can afford to go out sometimes because of the job.”

Life expectancy for men in Kazakhstan is 64 years and for women is 73 years. This means elderly women dominate the retirees’ workforce.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 270, published on March 4 2016)

Kazakhstan slips towards recession

FEB. 23 2016, ALMATY/DUSHANBE (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan verged on acknowledging that its economy may actually shrink this year and a Tajik Central Bank official said it was in talks with the IMF for an emergency loan, more signals that a sharp regional economic crisis was deepening further.

Normally bullish about its own GDP growth predictions, the reconfigured Kazakh government GDP growth estimate of 0.5% is an important sign of the severity of the economic downturn linked to low oil prices. Kazakhstan had earlier predicted GDP growth in 2016 at 2.1%.

“If the cost of a barrel of oil is $40, GDP growth will be 2.1%, but we’ve taken the conservative approach and have assumed that the price of oil will costs $30 per barrel and that GDP growth will hit 0.5%,” journalists quoted Yerbolat Dosayev, the economy minister as saying. Oil is currently around $35/barrel.

Importantly, this new GDP growth estimate is far closer to that of international economist who have said that Kazakhstan’s economy could shrink in 2016. The last time that Kazakhstan’s economy dipped into a recession was in 2008.

Low oil prices and a recession in Russia which has wiped out essential remittance and business investment flows have hit Central Asia hard. The scale and speed of the downturn appears to have wrong-footed leaders, including Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev and his advisers.

They have slashed government budgets and also sold off chunks of state-owned companies, but they haven’t been able to prevent the tenge from losing 50% of its value and inflation rising. Officials are now worried about anti-government protests.

On the southern fringe of Central Asia, Tajikistan, the world’s most remittance-reliant economy, has also been reeling from the impact of the downturn. It has called in the IMF to try to organise an emergency loan.

Jamoliddin Nuraliev, deputy head of Tajikistan’s Central Bank, told the FT that talks with the IMF had begun.

“It’s crisis time,” he said.

Tajikistan has depleted its currency reserves in its Central Bank trying to defend the value of it somoni currency. At the same time, data has shown that the flow of remittances from Russia have dropped by around half.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 269, published on Feb. 26 2016)

Electricity price to rise in Armenia

FEB. 25 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s Public Services Regulatory Commission (PSRC) approved a 1.5b dram ($3m) investment in its Soviet-era nuclear power plant Metsamor. Also at the press conference, the PSRC chairman, Shiraz Kirakosyan, said the controversial issue of raising electricity prices would be revisited in April. Last year proposed electricity price rises triggered street protests.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 269, published on Feb. 26 2016)

Armenia cuts rates

FEB. 16 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s Central Bank cut its key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 8.5% on Tuesday, its lowest level in a year, to try and maintain inflation. The Central Bank has previously said that, overall, prices for the 12- months to the end of January had fallen by 0.4%, despite a month-on- month rise of 2.2% in January compared to December.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 268, published on Feb. 19 2016)

Inflation pushes up in Armenia

FEB. 8 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s consumer price index rose by 2.2% in January compared to December, the national statistics committee said. The statistics committee said a 5% increase in food prices last month pushed up overall inflation. This is the highest month-to-month inflation increase in Armenia in the past year.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 267, published on Feb. 12 2016)

Inflation jumps in Azerbaijan

FEB. 10 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Prices in Azerbaijan jumped by 5.8% in January compared to December, according to the national statistics committee. The statistics committee said food prices rose 8.7% last month. In December the Central Bank allowed the manat currency to float free against the US dollar. This triggered a 35% devaluation in its value, putting prices under enormous pressure to rise.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 267, published on Feb. 12 2016)

Inflation increases in Georgia

FEB. 3 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Annualised inflation in Georgia rose to 5.6% at the end of January, the state’s statistics agency said, an increase from 4.9% in December. Inflation increased steadily in Georgia last year hitting 6.3% in November, fuelled by a drop in the value of the Lari currency, until it dropped off slightly. By comparison, in January 2015, annualised inflation had been 1.4%.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 266, published on Feb. 5 2016)

Kyrgyz business blames EEU for poor outlook

FEB. 5 2016, BISHKEK (The Conway Bulletin) — Frustrated Kyrgyz businessmen and company owners are blaming a worsening economy on joining the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) last year.

The criticism of the EEU, whether it is accurate or not, is a major problem for Kyrgyzstan’s leadership which dragged the country into the trade bloc despite deep-rooted unease from ordinary Kyrgyz. Also in the EEU are Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia.

In Bishkek, Azamat, who was selling cars, said Kyrgyzstan had aligned itself with the wrong countries.

“While we are in the Customs Union we will have nothing to develop,” he said.

The Customs Union is the old name for the EEU, which analysts have said was dreamt up by the Kremlin to extend its political control.

Western sanctions and a collapse in oil prices have tipped Russia’s economy into a recession. It has cancelled overseas projects, including a hydropower plant in Kyrgyzstan, and remittance flows from Kyrgyz workers in Moscow have fallen by around 40%. Inflation is rising in Kyrgyzstan and economic growth rates are being cut – a familiar story across the region.

Emil Umetaliev, a former Kyrgyz economy minister who now owns a travel company, told The Conway Bulletin that the EEU has been a major hindrance to small and medium sized companies, rather than the help that had been promised.

“The Eurasian economic union tends to organise countries’ interdependence on resources,” he said. “It does not encourage small and medium enterprises to develop and does not have a friendly investment climate.”

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 266, published on Feb. 5 2016)

Food prices inflate in Kazakhstan

FEB. 1 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Annualised food price inflation in Kazakhstan measured 11.6% for the 12-months to the end of January, the country’s statistics service said. The data highlights just how fast prices have risen in Kazakhstan. It devalued its currency last year, forcing up prices and salaries.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 266, published on Feb. 5 2016)