According to industry specialists, oil prices should remain within the current corridor of $35-$40/barrel until the end of the year, with an upward outlook (see chart above).

An Asian energy markets expert told The Conway Bulletin confidentially that he believes oil prices might grow back up to three figures by 2020, a long-term bullish statement.

But in the meantime, oil- dependent economies in the South

Caucasus and Central Asia will continue to suffer.

Despite the rebound in oil prices, most of the fields in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan will operate at a loss this year as well. And there is only a slim chance that the two Central Banks in Baku and Almaty will decide to weaken their currencies further in order to favour the export-oriented sectors of their economy.

Tengizchevroil, the consortium in charge of the Tengiz oil field in Western Kazakhstan has delayed a final investment decision on its expansion project. BP has said its fields in Azerbaijan will not show an increase in production in 2016.

The gas sector will also be impacted by oil prices in the medium term, as gas prices will also shrink, albeit moderately, for Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

The decline of oil and gas prices has now almost reached its two- year anniversary and exporters will feel an increasingly stronger pressure from importers to give them subsidies and discounts, given the regional economic downturn that is affecting all countries in the region.