Tag Archives: government

Armenia’s power vertical looks fragile

SEPT. 23 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – >> Economic stagnation, an unpopular president, a new PM and demonstrations over the summer in favour of a group of gunmen who captured a police station. Is Armenian in something of a crises?

>> You could certainly say that. It’s been a torrid 12 months for President Serzh Sargsyan, starting with demonstrations in the summer of 2015 against proposed electricity price rises. The government said that it had to introduce price rises to counter a fall in the value of the Armenian dram and a general economic downturn. Ordinary people, though, clearly weren’t prepared to stomach the price rise. They took to the streets and faced down the police, forcing the Armenian government to drop its price increase. The incident damaged Sargsyan and the then PM Hovik Abrahamian.

Since then, though, things have gotten worse. The economic just hasn’t picked up. There’s been something of a dead cat bounce in Armenia. It just hasn’t lifted and people are getting frustrated. This and the botched handling of the siege and hostage scenario at a police station in the capital in July contributed to Abrahamian having to quit as PM. He had only been in the job for two years.

Don’t forget, too, fighting in the Armenia-controlled region of Nagorno-Karabakh in April when Azerbaijan rolled in its tanks. The outbreak of fighting appeared to take the Armenia’s leadership by surprise, again embarrassing Sargsyan.

>> And how has this impacted Sargsyan?

>> His authority has definitely been affected. Sargsyan has never been wildly popular among ordinary Armenians. He’s won a couple of elections but both have been disputed and turnouts have been modest. In 2008, when he won his first presidential election, police shot dead at least 15 protesters after anti-Sargsyan protesters had taken over the main squares in Yerevan for a couple of weeks. Part of Sargsyan’s problem is an image problem. He comes across as cold and aloof. His power base is also centred on Nagorno-Karabakh, where he is from, and people suspect that he favours this clique. He’s certainly enriched his family and friends as president. The recent turmoil, and especially the stagnant economy, will only undermine his standing further.

>> Does this mean that Armenia’s opposition have a chance of taking over?

>> It’ll be very difficult for them. Sargsyan has the power of the Republican Party behind him. This is a formidable election machine as was shown in regional election when despite all the problems it still won just over half the local elections held on Sept. 18. Still, there was a wobble. The Republican Party lost 30 of these local elections, considered a blow to its prestige and clout.

>> And the new PM, Karen Karapetyan, how does he feed into all this?

>> Karapetyan is seasoned operator. He used to be the mayor of Yerevan, one of the most high profile jobs in the country, and was also an executive at the local branch of Gazprom. This means that he is already well- known to Russian officials, very important to Armenia which relies on Russia as one of its few allies.

His brother is Samvel who is one of the richest Armenians. He owns a property empire in Moscow and last year rode to the rescue of the Armenian government by buying the national electricity distribution company after the government backed down from angry protesters who didn’t want to pay a price rise.

The appointment of Karapetyan, puts his family at the centre of Armenian politics. This is the power duo to watch in Armenia. Sargsyan, who is eligible to run in a presidential election set for 2018, is increasingly reliant on the Karapetyans.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 297, published on Sept. 23 2016)

Azerbaijani court sentences bus driver in Euro Games crash

BAKU, SEPT. 19 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The bus driver who crashed into a group of Austrian teenage swimmers inside the athletes’ village on the eve of Baku’s European Games last year was sentenced to three years in prison for breaking road rules, but a security company camera-man who recorded and circulated the footage of the crash on the internet was found guilty of abuse of office and sentenced to four years in jail.

Footage of the crash showed a coach swinging through a roundabout too quickly and then mowing over the Austrian swimmers. One of the swimmers was left severely disabled and the accident overshadowed the Games.

The different length of prison sentences has concerned many Azerbaijanis who question the fairness of a justice system in which the man who made the information public was punished more harshly than the driver of the coach.

“You don’t have to be a lawyer to say that this judgment is completely disproportional. Recording and sharing such a video should not be a crime. It’s not a state secret,” Said, a 20-year old student at Baku State University told The Conway Bulletin.

“The government tried to cover the incident because they invested millions of dollars in the Games and didn’t want that to spoil their international image. But if they truly care about it, they should make sure the trial is fair. It clearly wasn’t.”

Three Austrian synchronised swimmers were hit by the coach on June 13, a day before the start of the European Games. Two of them, suffering from multiple broken bones and spine injury, were flown to Vienna on the personal jet of Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev.

The driver of the coach pleaded guilty, saying he had mistaken the accelerator for the brake pedal.

Azerbaijan had tried to use the inaugural European Games in Baku to promote itself. Instead the Games were marred by the coach crash, another serious car crash and mediocre sporting performances.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 297, published on Sept. 23 2016)

Armenian President appoints new ministers

SEPT. 20 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s President Serzh Sargsyan appointed a handful of new ministers, purging the previous government of Hovik Abrahamyan. Notably, Vardan Aramyan will be the new finance minister, Vahan Martirosyan was appointed transport and communications minister, while Ashot Manukyan will serve as energy minister. Mr Abrahamyan resigned earlier this month after a fall in the government’s popularity. He said a new government was needed.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 297, published on Sept. 23 2016)

Kazakhs say Massimov was sacked as PM for failures

ASTANA, SEPT. 20 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — While Western analysts were studying the latest reshuffle of senior Kazakh officials by President Nursultan Nazarbayev to try to decipher what it all means for the succession issue, ordinary Kazakhs were instead saluting the changes as a result of the country’s poor economic health.

A Conway Bulletin correspondent took to the streets in Astana to gauge how the reshuffle was received.

“Changing the PM was a necessary step after failure with land reforms, as the old government was under pressure from people and activists,” said Nurlyayim, a 24-year-old Astana resident.

Earlier this year, thousands of people across Kazakhstan had protested against changes to the land code. Karim Massimov was moved by Mr Nazarbayev from the PM’s position to head of the security services. Most analysts had said that this was an important sign of Mr Nazarbayev’s trust in Mr Massimov. Locals, clearly, saw it differently.

Lyazzat, 29, also said that Mr Massimov had effectively been sacked.

“In my opinion, the president made a major reshuffle because the government led by Mr Massimov failed to elaborate an anti-crisis strategy,” she said.

Rustem, 35, an Astana resident highlighted the move of Imangali Tasmaganbetov from the minister of defence to deputy PM.

“I know Tasmaganbetov as a good politician, who is capable of bringing some positive changes,” he said.

Again this is different from the analysts’ line of thinking who said Mr Tamagambetov had been demoted. Importantly, locals didn’t highlight Dariga Nazarbayeva’s move from deputy PM into the senate as important. Mr Nazarbayev’s eldest daughter is seen as a potential successor.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 297, published on Sept. 23 2016)

Armenia’s ruling party sags in local elections

SEPT. 18 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s ruling Republican Party lost a series of local elections, a reflection, observers said, of the drop in popularity for President Serzh Sargsyan and his government.

The elections focused on voting in civil leaders in small towns and villages across Armenia.

The Central Election Commission said that 350,000 people had voted in the election, a turnout of around 50%, giving it credibility as an opinion poll on the president.

Media reports said that of the 317 local governing bodies where voting took place, the Republican Party won 161. Importantly, though, it lost control of 30 towns and villages that it had previously held.

Analysts said that this was a reflection of the lack of trust in the Republican Party which has dominated Armenian politics since 2003. The economy is stagnant and a group of gunmen captured a police triggering a two week stand-off with police.

Earlier this month Hovik Abrahamyan resigned as Armenia’s PM. He had been in the job for two years but said that a new government was needed to restore confidence in the government.

President Sargsyan quickly appointed Karen Karapetyan as the new PM. He is a former mayor of Yerevan.

Hovannes Sahakian, a Reublican Party MP, said the worse-than-expected results were attributable to some poor local politics.

“There are many problems in those three dozen communities,” he told the RFE/RL’s Armenian service. “We need to revise things, change the strategy and tactics. What happened is not a tragedy.”

President Sargsyan has not commented on the results of the elections.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 297, published on Sept. 23 2016)

Georgia condemns Russia on polling stations

SEPT. 19 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Georgian government condemned Russia’s use of polling stations in the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia for its parliamentary election on Sept. 18. Georgia’s foreign ministry said in a statement that the issuing of Russian passports to people in South Ossetia and Abkhazia breached Georgia’s sovereignty and was illegal.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 297, published on Sept. 23 2016)

Berik Imashev: Nazarbayev’s key man

SEPT. 23 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev knows the lynchpin for delivering an ordered succession handover is the Central Election Commission (CEC).

With a trusted loyalist running the CEC — which oversees elections, decides on the eligibility of candidates and approves senators and MPs — Nazarbayev’s chances of delivering a smooth succession are improved.

Kazakhstan’s political class is riven through with different power groups vying for influence. There are rivals to Nazarbayev who are looking for weaknesses to exploit.

Nazarbayev’s appointment of Berik Imashev to head the CEC means that these opponents won’t find any weaknesses there.

Arguably it was the most important appointment in a wider reshuffle earlier his month, although the move of Karim Massimov from PM to head the security services, Dariga Nazarbayeva’s shift into the Senate and Imangali Tasmagambetov’s drift from the defence ministry into the deputy PM’s seat, grabbed the headlines.

Imashev is the definition of an arch-Nazarbayev loyalist. From the late 1990s, the 56-year-old has spent his career serving Nazarbayev, first as one of his advisers and then as deputy speaker of the Senate, deputy chairman of the State Security Council and most recently, from 2012, as justice minister.

It will now be Imashev’s job to ensure that Kazakh elections produce the right results with the right margins of victory that Nazarbayev requires.

And Imashev is well placed to do this. After all, he shares the same interests as Nazarbayev.

Known as a tough, uncompromising operator, Imashev is also married into the First Family. In 2003, his daughter, Aida, married Dariga Nazarbayev’s son Nurali. This makes both Imashev and Dariga, a favourite to succeed her father as president, grandparents to Aida and Nurali’s children. Imashev is, in effect, an extension of the Nazarbayev family.

Imashev’s appointment at the CEC also marks its subjugation as a political tool, although pretensions of independence had always been thin.

Since 2007, Kuandyk Turgankulov, had been head of the CEC. He had spent 11 years effectively training for the post as deputy chairman. By contrast, Imashev has no experience as a CEC official. His appointment is political, and a clever one.

For Nazarbayev securing the loyalty of the CEC was vital. This is now assured.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 297, published on Sept. 23 2016)

Mirziyoyev to run to be Uzbek president

SEPT. 16 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Acting President and PM Shavkat Mirziyoyev said he will run in the upcoming Uzbek presidential election, scheduled for Dec. 4, immediately installing himself as the favourite to win.

UzLiDeP, the party of former President Islam Karimov, nominated Mr Mirziyoyev for the top job.

Mr Mirziyoyev has served as PM since 2003. He was named acting president less than a week after Karimov died of a stroke on Sept. 2.

After the nomination, Mr Mirziyoyev praised Karimov.

“Karimov is our pride. This man brought me up, he was like a father to me,” he said.

The Central Election Commission also said that the National Revival Party nominated Sarvar Otamuradov as a contestant, although he is expected only to play the role of sparring partner.

No Western election observers have judged a vote in Uzbekistan to be either free or fair.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 297, published on Sept. 23 2016)f

Brother of Armenia’s richest man becomes PM

SEPT. 13 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia’s President Serzh Sargsyan appointed Karen Karapetyan to the post of PM, brother of one of the richest Armenians.

A member of the Mr Sargsyan’s Republican Party, Mr Karapetyan will take over from Hovik Abrahamyan, who resigned on Sept. 8, after a steep fall in the government’s popularity over the last few months after gunmen calling for a new government captured a police station in Yerevan, triggering a two week stand- off with security forces in which three policemen died.

Mr Karapetyan is a former mayor of Yerevan and ex-chief executive of ArmRosGazprom, the Armenian subsidiary of Russia’s Gazprom. His brother is Samvel Karapetyan, owner of Tashir Group, a Russian real estate holding company that bought the electricity distributor, Electricity Networks of Armenia (ENA), last year from Russia’s Inter RAO.

Billionaire Samvel Karapetyan effectively helped out the Armenian government who needed to find a buyer for ENA quickly after Inter RAO said it wanted to sell up after a botched attempt to raise electricity prices had triggered street demonstrations.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 296, published on Sept. 16 2016)

Comment: Uzbekistan’s smooth power transition

SEPT. 16 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – In some quarters it had been feared that Islam Karimov’s death in Uzbekistan would set off instability in Central Asia’s largest country as rival groups battled for control. So far, though, the power transition in Uzbekistan since Karimov’s death on Sept. 2 has been smooth.

Shavkat Mirziyoyev, the former PM, has been installed as acting president and will, presumably, be given the job on a full-time basis at an election in December. There is still some time before his coronation can be complete but, so far, there doesn’t appear to be any other actors coming to the fore to challenge Mirziyoyev’s ascension.

There are several striking characteristic about the smooth Uzbek power shift. Firstly, it appears to have been well-organised and well-rehearsed before Karimov’s death. The authorities were able to control the information flow, apparently even delaying the official announcement of Karimov’s death until they were ready, put together a state funeral and arrange for the Speaker of the Senate to decline taking over in favour of Mirziyoyev.

There was planning and agreement in all this. Deals were made on how to retain power and status in Uzbekistan well before Karimov died.

And the second point is that Karimov must have been in on it.

He must have agreed to this succession process while he was alive. It appears that he finally gave up on the idea of installing his favourite daughter, Gulnara, as his successor in 2014. She was deeply unpopular with ordinary Uzbeks and the elite may have considered her a liability that they wanted to get out of the way before dealing with the succession issue.

Their chance came in 2013 and 2014 with corruption accusations linked to Western telecoms companies which had paid out bribes to the Karimovs seven years earlier to access the Uzbek market. The Uzbek elite were then able to imprison Gulnara’s supporters and place her under house arrest. She has not been seen or heard of since.

March 2014, marked the real transition of power in Uzbekistan. Karimov was unable to protect his daughter and most probably had to go along with plans devised by the Uzbek elite to hold on to power.

And their plan meant stripping the Karimov family of power.

In Uzbekistan this month we have seen the natural culmination of what is effectively an internal Uzbek regime change.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 296, published on Sept. 16 2016)