NOV. 1 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia’s GDP grew by 1.5% in September, according to the country’s Statistics Committee. Total growth in Q3 2016 amounted to 2.2%, mirroring last year’s pace. Still, the government predicts a 3% growth this year and a 4% increase in 2017. In 2015, Georgia recorded a 2.8% GDP increase, its weakest since 2009.
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(News report from Issue No. 303, published on Nov. 4 2016)
OCT. 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkmenistan’s GDP annualised growth slowed to 6.2% in the first nine months of the year, down from 7.5% during the same period in 2015, the Turkmen state news agency said. Turkmen official statistics are considered unreliable and the information leaking out of the country points to severe economic hardship. The data is valuable in highlighting the economic slow- down that Turkmenistan and its neighbours are dealing with.
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(News report from Issue No. 302, published on Oct. 28 2016)
OCT. 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan said that its economy would shrink in 2016 by 2.8%, a major reversal from its earlier insistence that it would avoid a recession and post growth of 1.8%.
Answering questions posted by Reuters, the Azerbaijani economy ministry blamed sluggish oil prices and low global growth for the GDP revision. Last week government data showed Azerbaijan’s GDP had contracted by nearly 4% in the first nine months of 2016.
“The growth at 1.8 percent was projected in 2015, when the International Monetary Fund had been projecting the oil price at $64/barrel,” Reuters quoted government officials as saying. Oil prices are now around $50/barrel, double the price in January.
Most economists have been predicting a recession in Azerbaijan this year and the reluctance to downgrade its own growth estimate has been seen by many as fanciful thinking that will damage the credibility of the Azerbaijani government.
According to the World Bank the last time that Azerbaijan’s GDP contracted was in 1995.
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(News report from Issue No. 302, published on Oct. 28 2016)
OCT. 17 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s GDP shrank by 3.9% in the first nine months of the year compared to the same period in 2015, highlighting the heavy impact that a fall in the price of oil has had on the economy. The fall is roughly in line with analysts’ prediction. They had said that Azerbaijan is particularly exposed to the collapse in oil prices because it has not diversified its economy.
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(News report from Issue No. 301, published on Oct. 21 2016)
SEPT. 27 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Asian Development Bank (ADB) said that Azerbaijan’s economy will contract by 2.5% this year. Earlier this year, the ADB had forecast a 1% contraction. The Bank said Azerbaijan’s GDP will resume growth in 2017, when it will increase by 1%.
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(News report from Issue No. 298, published on Sept. 30 2016)
SEPT. 13 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – The IMF published a report on the state of Azerbaijan’s economy, forecasting a GDP contraction of 2.4% in 2016. The IMF said that lower oil prices, weak regional growth, currency devaluations, and lower hydrocarbon production have impacted Azerbaijan’s economic performance. In its report, the IMF said Azerbaijan’s GDP will resume growth in 2017.
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(News report from Issue No. 296, published on Sept. 16 2016)
SEPT. 1 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan’s GDP will grow marginally by 0.5% in 2016 and move back to a steadier growth pattern in 2017, Kuandyk Bishimbayev, minister of economy said. Mr Bishimbayev said that Kazakhstan’s GDP will grow by 1.9% in 2017. He also said that, with the expected start-up of the Kashagan oil project, oil production will jump 13.5% to 84m tonnes/year in 2017, back to 2013 levels. This should bode well for the economy.
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(News report from Issue No. 294, published on Sept. 2 2016)
JULY 19 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Tajikistan’s Statistics Committee said that trade turnover in H1 2016 shrank by 2.8%, compared to the same period last year. Overall, Tajikistan posted a negative trade balance, as it exported goods and services worth $439.4m and imported $1.5b. The Committee also said that the country’s GDP grew by 6.6% in H1, in line with government projection of a 7% growth by the end of the year.
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(News report from Issue No. 290, published on July 22 2016)
JULY 19 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbekistan’s Statistics Committee said that the country’s GDP grew by 7.8% in H1 2016, compared to the same period last year. Growth was slightly slower than in the first half of 2015, when GDP grew by 8.1%. Official statistics in Uzbekistan come with a health warning as they are often manipulated by the government.
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(News report from Issue No. 290, published on July 22 2016)
JULY 12 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kyrgyzstan’s GDP fell by 2.3% in the first six months of the year because of lower gold prices. The Statistics Committee said that without accounting for the performance of the Kumtor gold mine, the country’s non-gold GDP grew by 1.2% compared to the same period last year. Higher gold prices since mid-June could now push up the country’s GDP.
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(News report from Issue No. 289, published on July 15 2016)
