Tag Archives: GDP

IMF assesses Central Asia and S.Caucasus

OCT. 28 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Underdeveloped banking systems, a high rate of non-performing loans and inflexible exchange rates are potential brakes on economic recovery in Central Asia and the south Caucasus, the IMF said.

With their reliance on neighbouring Russia and global commodity prices, the global financial downturn in 2009 was tough for the economies of Central Asia and the south Caucasus. This year, with Russia and commodity prices recovering and the impact of domestic fiscal stimulus taking hold, the IMF predicts steady economic growth throughout the regions, other than for Kyrgyzstan.

Remittances from workers in Russia, so important for the poorer Central Asian and Caucasus countries, grew by 26% in the first half of 2010 compared to the same period in 2009.

The IMF said that inflation was generally under control at around 8%, although in Uzbekistan it was nearer 11%. For the IMF, the regions’ banking sectors are a concern. In Kazakhstan, the IMF pointed out, non-performing loans total nearly 26% of all loans.

IMF’s GDP % growth figures (2010 and 2011 are predictions):

Armenia +13.7 (2007); +6.9 (2008); -14.2 (2009); +4.0 (2010); +4.6 (2011)

Azerbaijan +25.0 (2007); +10.8 (2008); +9.3 (2009); +4.3 (2010); +1.8 (2011)

Georgia +12.3 (2007); +2.3 (2008); -3.9 (2009); +5.5 (2010); +4.0 (2011)

Kazakhstan +8.9 (2007); +3.2 (2008); +1.2 (2009); +5.4 (2010); +5.1 (2011)

Kyrgyzstan +8.5 (2007); +8.4 (2008); +2.3 (2009); -3.5 (2010); +7.1 (2011)

Tajikistan +7.8 (2007); +7.9 (2008); +3.4 (2009); +5.5 (2010); +5.0 (2011)

Turkmenistan +11.6 (2007); +10.5 (2008); +6.1 (2009); +9.4 (2010); +11.5 (2011)

Uzbekistan +9.5 (2007); +9.0 (2008); +8.1 (2009); +8.0 (2010); +7.0 (2011)

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 13, published on Nov. 1 2010)

Turkmen economy grows

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OCT. 18 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — In a rare economic forecast, Turkmenistan’s
government said its economy would grow by 7.5% in 2010 compared to 6.1% last year. Boosted by revenues from gas exports Turkmen government statistics have shown sharp growth in the past few years.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 12, published on Oct. 21 2010)

Azerbaijan’s booming defence budget

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OCT. 14 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Fuelled by oil and gas exports, Azerbaijan’s economy grew by over 800% between 2000 and 2009. Its defence spending nearly, but not quite, kept up. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimated that over the same period, Azerbaijan’s defence budget grew by 500%.

But in June this year, Azerbaijan said it would boost defence spending in 2010 by 30% and now finance minister Samir Sharifov has said that in 2011 it will rise by nearly 90% to $3.13b.

SIPRI said that in 2000 Azerbaijan spent $251m on defence. By 2011, then, its annual defence spending will have increased by more than 1200% since 2000, outstripping economic growth.

In terms of government spending, Mr Sharifov said in 2011 Azerbaijan will spend nearly 1/5 on defence. As a proportion of its GDP it will be around 6.5%. The world’s top spenders spend up to 8% of their annual GDP on defence.

But if Mr Sharifov was explicit on the numbers, he was less explicit on how the extra cash would be spent. He said that half of it would go on buying new equipment directly and the rest on special projects. Azerbaijan’s main military concern is tension with Armenia around the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. Azerbaijan and Armenia are still officially at war.

Armenia-backed forces have controlled Nagorno-Karabakh since a ceasefire in 1994 after a war in which around 30,000 people died. Soldiers from both sides still die each year in skirmishes around the mountainous region and the EU has warned the situation could deteriorate.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 11, published on Oct. 14 2010)

Azerbaijan’s economy rebounds

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SEPT. 23 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s economy is reliant on oil and gas. It has rebounded this year after a heavy slump in the world economy and oil prices combined in 2009 to knock growth.

In August, the ratings agency Moody’s upgraded the Azeri banking sector to stable from negative, reflecting Azerbaijan’s improving economy. Moody’s said the Azeri economy remained vulnerable to external shocks but “the banks are also benefiting from relatively stable macroeconomic conditions”.

In an interview with Bloomberg, the head of Azerbaijan’s Central Bank, Elman Rustamov, echoed this sentiment. He said Azerbaijan’s economy would grow by 4-5% this year compared to a 14% fall in 2009 but that he wanted to keep Azerbaijan’s currency, the manat, pegged at 0.803 to the US dollar for the rest of the year.

Mr Rustamov said the manat peg was important to stop the currency strengthening too quickly and damaging the non-oil sector’s recovery.

The manat has gained 12.5% against the dollar since redenomination in January 2006.

Oil makes up 93% of Azerbaijan’s exports and the average price per barrel has been 37% higher this year compared to 2009, Mr Rustamov said. Oil production will remain at around 50m tonnes this year, roughly the same as 2009. In 2008, Azeri oil production was 44.5m tonnes.

Mr Rustamov said that inflation would rise to about 10% this year.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 8, published on Sept. 23 2010)

Kazakhstan industrial output grows

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SEPT. 8 2010 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan unexpectedly doubled its industrial output forecast for 2010 to 7.5% because of a sharp boom in production in mining and processing industries such as chemicals, foods and machine-building. In the first 6 months of 2010 Kazakh GDP grew by 8%.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 6, published on Sept. 9 2010)