JULY 13 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — There are 1,865 investment projects worth $41b in Turkmenistan, Turkmen President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov said on state TV. The figure could not be independently verified but it does underline Turkmenistan’s investment potential. A major gas exporter, the IMF has estimated Turkmenistan’s 2013 GDP growth at 8%.
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(News report from Issue No. 143, published on July 15 2013)
APRIL 15 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) — Azerbaijan’s economy grew by 3.1% in the first three months of the year compared to the same period in 2012, Reuters quoted official data as showing. This rate is far quicker than the first quarter of 2012. Most of the growth occurred outside the energy sector.
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(News report from Issue No. 132, published on April 22 2013)
MARCH 12 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) – Although probably not wholly unexpected, the IMF’s assessment of Azerbaijan’s economy was still relatively blunt.
Instead of increasing public spending the Azeri authorities need to reduce government expenditure while improving its efficiency, as well as enhancing the business climate in general, media quoted Raja Almarzoqi, head of the IMF’s mission to Azerbaijan, as saying.
Like other energy-rich former Soviet states — Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan for example — Azerbaijan’s economy is heavily tilted towards cash earned from gas and oil.
Most of Azerbaijan’s energy-fuelled growth has occurred over the last decade. Now the government wants to boost other sectors of the economy and has promised various cash injections.
But the IMF said this strategy comes with risks.
According to Bloomberg news agency, Mr Almarzoqi cut straight to the point. “The 2013 budget is expansionary and creates overheating risks,” he said.
He backed up this statement with figures. Public spending and a significant increase in the non-energy economy will nearly double Azerbaijan’s GDP growth to 4.5% in 2013. Inflation, though, will also increase to 7% from 1.1% last year.
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(News report from Issue No. 127, published on March 15 2013)
MARCH 12 2013 (The Conway Bulletin) – An increase in foreign direct investment will help Georgia’s economy maintain a 6% growth rate in 2013, media quoted finance minister Nodar Khaduri as saying. Mr Khaduri predicted that foreign investment in Georgia will double to $2b this year. Georgia’s economy officially grew by 6.1% in 2012.
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(News report from Issue No. 127, published on March 15 2013)
DEC. 28 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kyrgyzstan’s parliament approved an ambitious economic plan for 2013 that relies on cash from Chinese, Russian and Western investors, Reuters reported. The Kyrgyz economy is hugely reliant on the Kumtor gold mine, owned by Toronto-listed Centerra Gold, which reduced output last year, forcing GDP to drop.
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(News report from Issue No. 119, published on Jan. 11 2013)
OCT. 23 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan’s economy will only grow by 5.4% this year because of poor demand for its metals, the Kazakh minister for economic development, Erbolet Dosayev, said according to media reports. The Kazakh government had earlier hoped for economic growth in 2012 of around 7%.
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(News report from Issue No. 110, published on Oct. 26 2012)
AUG. 6 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Turkmenistan’s economy grew by 11% in the first seven months of the year, Turkmen President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov said on national television. The figures confirm the massive gas-powered growth rate of the country although it does mark a slight slowdown against the 14.4% recorded in the same period last year.
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(News report from Issue No. 100, published on Aug. 10 2012)
APRIL 13 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Despite rosy official figures, information leaking out of Uzbekistan suggests that the economy might not be in such rude health.
In the past month, the US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has reported that pensioners were having to repay part of their pensions and that teachers were being paid with chickens instead of cash.
Sources have also told the Conway Bulletin there are queues of hundreds of cars outside petrol stations throughout the country and regular power and water cuts, even in the capital Tashkent.
These snatched insights are important because Uzbekistan is one of the world’s most closed states and has been presenting itself as a successful alternative to the free-market global economy.
The official line is that its closed policies have made Uzbekistan self-sufficient and sheltered it from the global economic crisis of 2008/9. State statistics show GDP growth at around 8% in 2011 and 8.5% in 2010.
Now though, the Uzbek government appears to be trying to lure foreign investors. On April 11 the AP news agency reported that the Uzbek authorities had promised potential investors tax breaks. Importantly it also promised not to interfere in investors’ work.
Either the Uzbek government finally wants to open up the country or it needs some cash.
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(News report from Issue No. 083, published on April 13 2012)
JAN. 18 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – In its annual growth forecasts, the World Bank said weakening markets in the West would hit the developing world in 2012. For 2012 growth forecasts for Central Asia and the South Caucasus were: Tajikistan 6%, Kyrgyzstan 5.5%, Kazakhstan 5.5%, Uzbekistan 8%, Turkmenistan N/A, Azerbaijan 3.1%, Georgia 5%, Armenia 4.3%.
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(News report from Issue No. 73, published on Jan. 19 2012)
JAN. 10 2012 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh central bank chief, Grigory Marchenko, estimated GDP growth for Kazakhstan in 2012 at 6%. This is slower economic growth than in 2011 but in a worsening global economic climate it also underlines the potential of Kazakhstan’s economy.
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(News report from Issue No. 72, published on Jan. 13 2012)
