FEB. 13 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kanat Bozumbayev, the Kazakh energy minister, told media that in 2016 Kazakhstan produced 78m tonnes of oil, beating an initial forecast of 75.5m tonnes. This is important because the government had been forecasting a drop in production because companies were throttling back output under the pressure of poor prices.
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(News report from Issue No. 317, published on Feb.17 2017)
FEB. 10 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Nostrum Oil & Gas, the London- listed and Kazakhstan-focused, oil producer hit its lowest level since the beginning of the year on Feb. 9. On its main listing in London, Nostrum’s shares were valued at 436p.
Analysts have said that the drop, which has seen it tumble from a high of 475/$1 since Feb. 1, was linked to a general softening of oil prices rather than any news linked to the company itself.
Instead most analysts have given the company a ‘buy’ rating and raised their target prices. Last month Deutsche Bank, Numis Securities, GMP Securities and
Panmure Gordon all gave Nostrum a ‘buy’ rating and targeted share prices of 535p to 600p.
Credit Suisse downgraded its outlook for Nostrum to a ‘hold’ from a ‘buy’ and targeted a price of 415p to 440p.
At the end of last month, Nostrum said in its annual report that output had just about matched expectations and that it would realise savings in 2017 through a connection to the KTO pipeline.
“(This) will allow us to realise significant savings to exported crude oil transportation costs and continue to seek to reduce costs across the business,” it said.
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(News report from Issue No. 316, published on Feb. 10 2017)
FEB. 9 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Production at Kazakhstan’s largest oil and gas producer, Karachaganak, fell by 1.4% in 2016, compared to 2015, to 139.7m barrels of oil equivalent, the consortium operating the project said. This drop highlights a general decrease in output by Kazakh oil and gas producers during a prolonged period of low prices. Projects such as Karachaganak are vital for Kazakhstan’s economy.
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(News report from Issue No. 316, published on Feb. 10 2017)
JAN. 31 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — In its full year results, Nostrum Oil & Gas, which focuses on Kazakhstan said that it had just beaten its expected output with an average daily output of 40,351/barrels of oil equivalent (boe) compared to an anticipated 40,000 boe. It said that the final quarter of the year had been the best with 44,708 boe.
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(News report from Issue No. 315, published on Feb. 3 2017)
JAN. 31 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Caspian Pipeline Consortium plans to invest $150m in 2017 in expanding the capacity of the pipeline that pumps oil from western Kazakhstan around the northern tip of the Caspian Sea to Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, its general director Nikolay Gorban told media. The expansion plan will boost the pipeline’s capacity to 67m tonnes per year, up from 52m tonnes. This is important because CPC is a key export route for Kazakhstan and especially for its important Tengiz field.
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(News report from Issue No. 315, published on Feb. 3 2017)
JAN. 24 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Russia’s Gazprom will buy 12.8b cubic metres of gas from Kazakhstan in 2017 continuing its strategy of preferring Kazakh gas suppliers over other regional companies. Kazmunaigas has boosted its cooperation with Gazprom over the past few years while other state companies linked to Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have lost ground.
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(News report from Issue No. 314, published on Jan. 27 2017)
JAN. 27 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — >> Why are people getting so upset about this new gas deal between Georgia and Russia?
>> After a couple of rounds of negotiations in Geneva, Georgian energy minister Kakha Kaladze returned to Tbilisi heralding a new gas deal which he said he had negotiated with Russia that was better than the previous arrangement. The new arrangement returned to a monetised price that Georgia would pay Russia for gas rather than, under the old deal, take a 10% cut of the volume that Russia sends to Armenia.
>> Right. But why would Georgia want to start paying for gas rather than just take a slice of the transit volumes?
>> That’s exactly the point. Kaladze returned from Geneva heralding the new deal as a victory for Georgia over Russia but it could be more of an own goal. Certainly Margvelashvili was immediately critical of the deal. He may have been playing politics, he has fallen out with his former colleagues in the Georgian Dream coalition and often sounds like an independent politician, but his concerns have been parroted by others too.
>> Go on. What are the details?
>> Kaladze was coy with the details of the deal and exactly how much Georgia would now have to pay Russia for gas but a think-tank called World Experience for Georgia (WEG) said that it would now have to pay $185 per 1,000 cubic metres of gas which is more than Armenia and Germany pay for their gas.
>> So what have the Georgian energy ministry and Kaladze said?
>> Surprisingly little, other than back Kaladze’s statement that the price negotiated was a good one. And this secrecy could be part of the problem. They have said that the actual price negotiated is a commercial secret, a statement that hasn’t gone down well.
>> But there must be some upside put forward by the government other than the price.
>> The deal does give Georgia more flexibility about where it sources its gas. It is likely that Azerbaijan’s Socar will be the big winner here with more gas being sourced from them.
>> And Kaladze? What has he said?
>> He’s come out fighting as he knows that his political reputation is on the line. Without being any more specific on the pricing structure agreed with Russia, he accused Pres. Margvelashvili of being unpatriotic. This row is likely to run and run and may have more far reaching political implications.
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(News report from Issue No. 314, published on Jan. 27 2017)
JAN. 26 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkmenistan said that it was prepared to enter negotiations with Iran over a disputed gas bill of $1.8b, although it still retains the right to take the dispute to an international court. Turkmenistan cut off gas supplies to Iran last month after accusing it of not paying debts it said had built up from 2007/8. The row has surprised observers who have watched Turkmenistan-Iran relations improve.
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(News report from Issue No. 314, published on Jan. 27 2017)
JAN. 14 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Eriell GmbH, an Austria-registered company whose biggest shareholder is Gazprombank, has bought a 51% stake in Sarbon-Neftegaz from the state-owned Uzbekenergo, the Tashkent stock exchange reported. The Italian-language agcnews.eu website said that Eriell had paid $3.94m for the stake. Sarbon-Neftegaz provides transport services to oil and gas companies in Uzbekistan.
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(News report from Issue No. 313, published on Jan. 20 2017)
JAN. 13 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkmen president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov fired Ashirguly Begliyev as head of the state-run Turkmengaz and replaced him with his deputy, Maksat Babayev. No reason was given for the sacking, although Mr Berdymukhamedov likes to rotate his key officials, possibly to ensure that noone builds up enough powerful enough to be able to challenge him.
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(News report from Issue No. 313, published on Jan. 20 2017)
