MAY 13 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Armenia has negotiated a reduced price for gas from Russia’s Gazprom but the government will not pass this saving on to consumers, energy minister, Yervand Zakharyan, said. Instead, Mr Zakharyan said, consumers will pay the same price.
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(News report from Issue No. 231, published on May 13 2015)
MAY 8 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said it will give a syndicated loan for the second phase development of the Caspian Sea Shah Deniz gas project. EBRD President Suma Chakrabarti said on a visit to Baku that the size and timeframe were undecided.
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(News report from Issue No. 231, published on May 13 2015)
MAY 1 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The European Union wants to take gas deliveries from Turkmenistan from 2019, part of a determined drive to use Central Asia to weaken Russia’s grip over its energy supplies.
On a trip to Ashgabat, Maros Sefcovic, a European Commission vice-president and its top energy official, said gas could be sent to Europe from Turkmenistan either through a proposed pipeline that runs along the Caspian Sea floor or via Iran and then through neighbouring Turkey.
“Europe expects supplies of Turkmen gas to begin by 2019,” he said after meeting Turkmen president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov.
For years Europe and Turkmenistan have discussed the tantalising potential of Turkmen gas reaching European households, but Mr Sefcovic’s trip to Ashgabat and subsequent statement is the strongest indication yet that what once appeared rather fanciful could actually materialise.
And it would be a game changer for Europe and Turkmenistan.
Europe is desperate to reduce Russia’s grip over its gas supplies, especially since the eruption of war in east Ukraine and the souring of relations with the Kremlin.
Turkmenistan, which holds the world’s fourth largest gas reserves and has been maturing its production process, is eager for more clients.
Currently China buys most of Turkmenistan’s gas. Europe, though, would be another large, stable client and it would propel Turkmenistan into the top division of global gas suppliers.
On his trip to Ashgabat, Mr Sefcovic also met with energy ministers from Azerbaijan and Turkey. The EU needs their support to pump Turkmen gas.
The stakes are high for both Europe and Turkmenistan.
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(News report from Issue No. 230, published on May 6 2015)
APRIL 29 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Russian gas monopoly Gazprom has agreed to lower the price of gas it sells to consumers in Armenia by 13%, media reported quoting Gazprom chairman Alexei Miller. Gazprom owns the gas pipelines in Armenia.
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(News report from Issue No. 229, published on April 29 2015)
APRIL 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev visited Saudi Arabia only a few days after members of the United Arab Emirates’ royal family had travelled to Baku for talks.
Some analysts have said that Mr Aliyev is looking to boost his alliances with Arab states as a potential bulwark against improving US-Iran ties.
“Saudi Arabia will extend its investment in Azerbaijan. We are both Muslim countries and Azerbaijan has good relations with Saudi,” Vahid Ahmadov, an independent MP, told the Bulletin.
In many ways it suits Azerbaijan to have its neighbour, Iran, ostracised and demonised by the international community. The thinking goes that if Iran is considered a rogue state, the US and Israel need Azerbaijan more. This month, at talks in Switzerland, the US moved to relax sanctions imposed on Iran because of concerns about its nuclear programme.
The opposition ReAl movement said that Mr Aliyev had been trying to woo Arab states because he needed more cash for various pipeline projects.
“Azerbaijan will need huge money for the TAP and TANAP projects. Oil revenues are falling and the government needs to find loans,” media reports quoted Azer Gasimli, an opposition activist, as saying.
“The IMF and World Bank set disturbing standards which require economic reforms for Aliyev. For him it is better to find loans from Arab countries.”
The EU and Western companies are investing in Azerbaijani energy and the infrastructure needed to transport it to markets. Azerbaijan, though, needs cash now.
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(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)
APRIL 7 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – India’s external affairs minister, Sushma Swaraj, flew to Ashgabat to meet Turkmen officials to, possibly, push the TAPI pipeline project along. TAPI aims to carry Turkmen gas to India via Afghanistan and Pakistan.
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(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)
APRIL 8 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – A proposed $70b takeover of BG by Royal Dutch Shell will have implications for Kazakhstan’s energy sector. BG is a major shareholder in, and the operator of, the Karachaganak oil and gas project in north Kazakhstan. This will pass to Shell if the deal goes through.
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(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)
MARCH 26 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – A parliamentary inquiry in Armenia said the government subsidised gas for consumers between 2011 and 2013 ahead of a controversial buyout of the pipeline network by Russia’s Gazprom.
The US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) said the government had previously denied it was subsidising gas imports from Russia.
The Armenian government was desperate both to retain support ahead of an election and to write off a $300m debt to Gazprom. To do this, it needed the public’s support to sell the pipeline distribution network.
The inquiry’s findings will pile more pressure on Armenia’s president Serzh Sargsyan whose administration has become increasing unpopular.
The RFE/RL report also said Gazprom cut the gas price when Armenia agreed to join the Kremlin-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), which also includes Belarus and Kazakhstan.
“The commission has found documentary evidence of unpublicized Russian-Armenian agreements that gradually raised the gas price from $180 to $270 per thousand cubic meters in 2011-2013,” RFE/RL reported.
“Gazprom cut the price to almost $190 per thousand after Armenia agreed to join the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union in late 2013.”
This is yet more evidence that Russia pressured Armenia into joining the EEU.
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(News report from Issue No. 225, published on April 12015)
APRIL 1 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Russia used its control of gas supplies to Armenia to pressure the government into joining its Eurasian Economic Union, a parliamentary inquiry has said.
The inquiry said Russia increased gas prices to Armenia until it agreed to join the Eurasian Economic Union in 2013.
The findings are strong evidence that Russia uses its economic leverage over Central Asia and the South Caucasus for political gain.
Also in the past week, Russia approved a $1 billion development fund for Kyrgyzstan. This, again, appears linked to Kyrgyzstan’s entry to the Eurasian Economic Union later this year.
The West has long said the Kremlin’s aim in the region is to coerce governments into doing its bidding.
In Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, it has found vulnerable partners. Both are relatively poor with few natural resources. They both host Russian military bases and are reliant on Russian business and remittances from workers living in Russia for growth.
Importantly too, Gazprom owns the gas pipeline network in both Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. This has often been the choke point. Controlling a country’s gas supply gives Russia huge power.
There is one other major similarity between Armenia and Kyrgyzstan regarding membership of the Eurasian Economic Union. Bulletin correspondents in both countries report that most ordinary people, and also many of the politicians, don’t really want to join the group. Instead, they feel compelled to.
Belarus and Kazakhstan, both far larger economies, are also members of the EEU.
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(News report from Issue No. 225, published on April 12015)
MARCH 26 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Uzbekistan will start building a fourth gas pipeline to China at the end of this year, Interfax news agency quoted an official from the state energy company Uzbekneftegaz as saying. The pipeline is expected to be 260km long and cost around $800m.
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(News report from Issue No. 225, published on April 12015)
