SEPT. 16 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan’s deputy energy minister, Uzakbai Karabalin, has said fuel shortage will continue despite government attempts to buy extra petrol from Azerbaijan and other neighbours, media reported. He said a third of Kazakhstan’s petrol came from Russia which was dealing with an economic slowdown.
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(News report from Issue No. 200, published on Sept. 17 2014)
AUG. 28 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Reports from the regions said that queues up to a kilometre-long have been forming outside petrol stations as motorist try to re-fuel their cars.
In the northern city of Uralsk only four of 11 petrol stations were serving motorists without vouchers.
A combination of low refining capacity while upgrades are made; the devaluation of the tenge currency, which has made imports more expensive; restrictions on the quantity of imports have reduced petrol supplies.
Officials have said that they are working to bring the situation under control but frustrations threaten to bubble over.
Kazakh President Nursultan Nazrbayev relies, to some degree, on the people becoming increasingly rich and comfortable for his popularity. If this starts to reduce, or become visibly impaired, his popularity may drop.
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(News report from Issue No. 198, published on Sept. 3 2014)
Petrol shortages have worsened in Kazakhstan over the past few months.
SEPT. 1 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Tajikistan is on the brink of a Russian-fuelled petrol crisis according to independent news outlet Avesta.tj.
Unnamed sources told Avesta.tj that a collective of 25 Tajik fuel importers had written to President Emomali Rakhmon to tell him that he needed to buy extra fuel supplies to avoid potentially destructive price hikes. The problem, they said, was export restrictions at the Russian refineries where Tajikistan gets its fuel.
The letter said that supplies of A-92 petrol, imported from Russia, and other types of fuel, may be exhausted by mid-September unless he intervenes to ensure previous levels of supply. Apparently the letter attributes the restrictions to parallel shortages in energy rich Russia. Kyrgyzstan is also hurting. Petrol prices in Tajikistan’s northern neighbour have risen by 13.8% in some parts of the country over an eight month period.
Officially, according to the head of the Kyrgyz Oil Traders association, the reason for the restrictions is that multiple refineries in Russia are undergoing repairs simultaneously.
Unofficially, it’s more likely that sanctions imposed on Russia for its actions in Ukraine are biting.
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(News report from Issue No. 198, published on Sept. 3 2014)
AUG. 28 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) – Petrol stations across Uzbekistan are closing because of a lack of fuel supplies, media reported. Media has been reporting for some time that fuel supplies in Uzbekistan have been low. The government has also said that it is no longer able to subsidise petrol causing prices to rise, especially around Tashkent.
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(News report from Issue No. 198, published on Sept. 3 2014)
APRIL 29 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — In a surprising, and perhaps risky, move, Turkmenistan’s President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov ordered the authorities to scrap a monthly handout of petrol to car owners.
Mr Berdymukhamedov had introduced the subsidy in 2008 to ease a massive increase in the price of fuel. Mr Berdymukhamedov’s eccentric predecessor Saparmurat Niyazov had set the price of petrol at an unrealistic 2 cents per litre. Mr Berdymukhamedov wanted to raise the price to 22 cents.
Reuters quoted Turkmenistan’s state media as saying that the abolition of the fuel allowance was needed to “help sustain the growth of the national economy, achieve the efficient use of oil products and ensure their orderly converting to cash on the domestic market”.
In other words, Mr Berdymukhamedov decided that it was time to wean the population off the free fuel allowance.
Turkmenistan can, after all, afford the petrol giveaway. It has grown rich from energy exports. These exports are mainly gas. It produces roughly 10m tonnes of crude oil a year, most of which it refines into oil products locally.
Salaries are low in Turkmenistan. The sudden cut in fuel subsidies may impact people and increase resentment.
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(News report from Issue No. 182, published on April 30 2014)
MARCH 24 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — The price of fuel in Kyrgyzstan has increased by as much as 6.7% since the beginning of the year, media reported. An official from an industry lobby group blamed increased import prices from Russia for the rise. Fuel price rises, especially sharp ones, can generate discontent.
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(News report from Issue No. 177, published on March 26 2014)
MARCH 14 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — A rare admission from a Kazakh insider that the country’s energy policies may not be working hints at future fuel price increases, analysts have said.
Sauat Mynbayev, chairman of state-owned KazMunaiGas, said sending Kazakh oil to China to be processed into fuel and then re-importing it to make up for a shortfall in domestic refining capacity has become too expensive.
“The transit operations regarding the refining of Kazakhstan’s oil in China has become unprofitable,” media quoted him as saying.
Analysts immediately unpicked his statement. What this meant, they said, was that fuel prices would rise shortly.
And that, as the government knows, will be deeply unpopular.
Oil-rich Kazakhstan has a chronic lack of refining capacity. The three refineries at Shymkent, Pavlodar and Atyrau are often under repair. New refineries are only scheduled to come on-stream in five or six years time.
To make up for the shortfall, Kazakhstan is importing refined fuel from China and Russia. It is also sending unrefined fuel into China for processing and then shipping it back over the border.
Added to this complex arrangement is Kazakhstan’s 20% currency devaluation in February which makes imports even more expensive.
Mr Mynbayev has just been made head of Kazakhstan’s Greco-Roman wrestling federation, a position that underlines his insider credentials.
For an insider to admit a policy problem is almost unheard of in Kazakhstan. As analysts have now warned, expect fuel price increases.
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(News report from Issue No. 176, published on March 19 2014)
FEB. 25 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakhstan may experience fuel shortages this year, media quoted Sauat Mynbayev, head of Kazmunaigas, as saying. Kazakhstan’s three oil refineries are being upgrading, reducing their capacity and forcing the authorities to import fuel from Russia. The currency devaluation has made fuel imports expensive.
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(News report from Issue No. 173, published on Feb. 26 2014)
FEB. 11 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — Rovnag Abdullayev, the head of Azerbaijan’s state-owned energy company SOCAR, said that demand for petrol in Azerbaijan was rising by 10-11% each year, media reported. This is important because is both serves as an economic indicator and also shows the need to boost refinery capacity in Azerbaijan.
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(News report from Issue No. 171, published on Feb. 12 2014)
JAN. 10 2014 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Uzbek government increased the price of petrol by 20% because of continued shortages. Uzbeks are already labouring under a series of price rises, from food to general utilities. The jump in petrol prices could cause resentment to grow.
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(News report from Issue No. 167, published on Jan. 15 2014)
