Tag Archives: election

Success of conservative party reflects Georgian society

TBILISI, OCT. 18 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The success of the Alliance of Patriots party in Georgia’s parliamentary election this month underlines the spread of conservative views amongst ordinary Georgians, analysts said.

The group, set up in 2012, became the first minor party under a new constitution to break through the 5% barrier to automatically win six seats through the proportional representation element of the election in the 150 seat parliament.

The Alliance of Patriots sees itself as staunchly pro-religion and nationalistic, views which, Tbilisi-based analyst Zaal Anjaparidze said, were reflective of a shift in public opinion.

“Opinion polls in Georgia for the last four years have been showing some rise in Euro sceptic thinking and the alienation of parts of Georgian society from liberal values,” he told The Bulletin, views held by other Georgian political commentators.

“They have succeeded in occupying this niche and capitalising on it during the election campaign.”

The Alliance of Patriots may also have an influential role to play in the next parliament as natural allies of the ruling Georgian Dream coalition which is also close to the Orthodox Church. Many of the Georgian Dream’s supporters have said that they want to change the Georgian constitution to state that marriage can only be between a man and woman.

Detractors of the constitutional amendments say it is discriminatory, anti-liberal and contrary to the values of the EU which Georgia aspires to join but its supporters know they have the backing of a large section of the public, as reflected by the success of the Georgian Dream and the Alli- ance of Patriots.

In Tbilisi, Soso, a scientist, reflected the views of many people.

“Before being an Orthodox Christian, I am Georgian,” he said. “Same sex marriage is against our tradition, our beliefs and against the true essence of being Georgian. Such an amendment is absolutely necessary.”

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 301, published on Oct. 21 2016)

A presidential election in Turkmenistan

OCT. 17 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) – >> So, an election in Turkmenistan then. Will it be close?

>> No, not at all. The incumbent president, Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, will clean up and win probably with more than 95% of the vote. He won 97% of the vote at the last presidential election in 2012.

>> Right. He must be a popular chap, then.

>> Again, unlikely, but it is very hard to tell. Since he was officially elected president in January 2007, Berdymukhamedov has carefully built up a personality cult to rival any other around the world. Last year he unveiled a statue of himself sitting on a horse with a flowing cloak. It was all very Roman. Berdymukhamedov pretty much makes all the key decisions in Turkmenistan. He runs the the economic, foreign and domestic policies. He’s not a big delegator. The problem is that it is very difficult to know how genuinely popular, or unpopular, he is at the moment as free media doesn’t exist in Turkmenistan. What we do know is that although Berdymukhamedov can take credit for opening up the economy and for developing its gas export routes, Turkmenistan is suffering, just like its neighbours, from a sharp regional economic downturn linked a drop in energy prices and a recession in Russia.

>> What do you mean?

>> Again, information that is 100% reliable is hard to come by but we do know that government salaries have been paid late and that people are blocked from transferring cash into foreign currencies. There have also been a handful of small protests in the past couple of years in Ashgabat which are vitally important in judging the mood. These have focused on domestic issues, such as satellite dishes on buildings and the destruction of suburban housing to clear ground for a new Olympic village. They are not directly political but they are good indicators that not all is as steady as the Turkmen government, and Berdymukhamedov in particular, would like. Protests are extremely rare in Turkmenistan so any indicator that people are prepared to stand up to the authorities must be taken seriously.

>> Does this make the election is risky for Berdymukhamedov?

>> Turkmenistan is a tightly controlled police state so this is unlikely. He also had to hold a presidential election next year. Until he changed the constitution last month, presidential terms in Turkmenistan were set at five years. The previous election was in 2012. He’s now changed the length of a presidential term to seven years so once next February’s election is out of the way, he won’t have to deal with another until 2024. This election will be something for the Turkmen authorities to carefully manage but beyond that it shouldn’t trigger any major problems.

>> Got it. And how will the international community deal with it?

>> This is a tricky one. The Russians and the Chinese mainly want a reliable partner and stability. They have this in Berdymukhmaedov and won’t want the the boat to be rocked, so to speak. The West, and Europe in particular, have a different agenda. They want Turkmenistan’s gas but are also interested in human rights. It’s unlikely that they will send vote monitors and they will complain about the lack of free speech but, by and large, there is very little that they can really do.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 301, published on Oct. 21 2016)

Georgia’s election committee sets run-offs

OCT. 19 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgia’s Central Election Commission set Oct. 30 as the date for run- offs in at least 48 single mandate seats which failed to return a majority winner in a parliamentary election on Oct. 8. The vote is important because, although the Georgian Dream is all-but certain to win a majority in the 150-seat parliament, if it wins a total of 113 seats it will be able to make constitutional changes.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 301, published on Oct. 21 2016)

Turkmen President calls a presidential election

OCT. 16 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkmenistan’s President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov called an election for Feb. 12, barely a month after he tweaked the country’s constitution to allow him to rule for life.

Mr Berdymukhamedov, who won a presidential election in 2012 with 97% of the vote, is expected to easily win next year’s vote, his third election since winning power in 2007.

But like the rest of the region, Turkmenistan’s economy has been creaking under a slump in global energy prices. This could make the election more complicated than previous votes.

Last month the 59-year-old Mr Berdymukhamedov removed an age cap of 70-years from the Turkmen constitution and also extended presidential terms to seven from five years, inline with many of his Central Asian peers.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 301, published on Oct. 21 2016)

Georgian Dream defeats UNM in parliamentary election

TBILISI, OCT. 10 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The ruling Georgian Dream coalition government easily won a parliamentary election in Georgia with nearly 50% of the vote, almost double the votes won by the United National Movement party (UNM) of former president Mikheil Saakashvili.

The result confirms Bidzina Ivanishvili, the billionaire bankroller of the Georgian Dream, as the most influential man in the country.

“Instead of a government with confused members, Georgia genuinely has the government that is devoted to people,” he said after victory was declared.

It also, importantly, puts Georgia on an increasingly conservative and pro-Russia trajectory.

The Georgian Dream has allied itself to the Georgian Orthodox Church a staunchly conservative, and influential, institution that abhors homosexuality.

The conservative direction of the new Georgian parliament was bolstered by the entry of the staunchly nationalist and religious Alliance of Patriots for the first time. They cleared the 5% barrier in the proportional representation element of the vote to secure seats in the 150-seat parliament.

The Georgian Dream coalition, now officially headed by PM Giorgi Kvirikashvili , won its first election four years ago, beating the UNM. This year’s election had been dubbed a grudge re-match between the two parties with Mr Ivanishvili and Mr Saakashvili playing Machiavellian roles from the sidelines.

From Ukraine, where he is governor of the Odessa region, Mr Saakashvili said the election had been fixed. “This election was fabricated through many forms of manipulation to get a final result which would bring absolute victory to Georgian Dream,” he said.

But ODIHR, the OSCE’s main election watchdog, said the election had been largely free and fair.

“Strongly competitive and well- run, yesterday’s elections offered an opportunity for voters to make informed choices about their options in a pluralistic but polarized media environment,” Ignacio Sanchez Amor, the leader of the short-term OSCE observer mission, said.

The Central Election Commission said that turnout was around 51%.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 300, published on Oct. 14 2016)

UNM’s poor showing in Georgia’s election

TBILISI, OCT. 14 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgian Dream supporters, wearing their trademark blue shirts, celebrated long into the night on Sunday after it became clear that they had won a crushing victory over their rivals, the United National Movement party (UNM).

Make no mistake, the rivalry between the Georgian Dream and the UNM runs deep. Both sides accuse the other of fraud, violence and of trying to destabilise the country and, up until the first votes were cast on Oct. 8, it was unclear which party would win the parliamentary election. The Georgian Dream ruling coalition is bankrolled by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili. The UNM is the party of Mikheil Saakashvili, the former Georgian president who is now the governor of the Odessa region in Ukraine.

Now, it’s clear that the Georgian Dream has scored a major victory which could, potentially, end the UNM’s push for a comeback for good. The Central Election Commission said that the Georgian Dream had polled nearly 49% of the votes in the proportional representation element of the election, against 27% for the UNM. The Georgian Dream vote was down only slightly from 2012, when it won power for the first time, despite the tough economic times but the UNM vote crashed from 40% in 2012.

And it was clear from conversations on the streets of Tbilisi just why the Georgian Dream had won. Essentially the UNM, and Mr Saakashvili, is remembered for poisoning relations with Russia, triggering a 2008 war and torturing prison inmates — an episode highlighted by a TV drama series, paid for by Mr Ivanishvili, which was broadcast shortly before the election.

“People value peace more than economic development,” Lika, a 30-year- old translator, said. “The UNM did a lot for Georgia, but the moment they became authoritarian, they lost our trust.”

These sentiments were shared by Giorgi, a 50-year-old war veteran working as a taxi driver in Tbilisi.

“I voted for the Georgian Dream because there is no alternative. We can’t let the nationalists slip back into power. They were violating laws, torturing, even killing political opponents. I don’t want that. Georgia needs the rule of law first,” he said.

And perhaps, too, Mr Saakashvili also damaged the UNM’s chances. Voters complained that it wasn’t clear what his role was and whether voting for the UNM would mean his return.

Now, after the UNM’s defeat, they won’t find out.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 300, published on Oct. 14 2016)

Tension rises ahead of Georgia election after car bomb

TBILISI, OCT. 3 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — A bomb exploded under the car of leading UNM parliamentarian Givi Targamadze in central Tbilisi, the most serious act of violence in a heated, and at times dangerous, campaign ahead of Georgia’s parliamentary election on Saturday.

Media reported that Mr Targamadze and his driver were unhurt in the blast, although four other people were injured.

The United National Movement party (UNM), backed by former President Mikheil Saakashvili, immediately accused the ruling Georgian Dream coalition, backed by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, of planning the bomb attack.

“I think he (Targamadze) was chosen as a target because he has been keeping active contacts with the law enforcement which scares Ivanishvili very much,” Mr Saakashvili said on his Facebook page.

The Georgian Dream has denied any involvement and its supporters have instead said that the UNM planted the bomb itself to destabilise the country.

Georgia’s parliamentary election campaign has become increasingly fraught as polling day approaches.

Opposing MPs have fought on live TV debates, three supporters of the ruling Georgian Dream coalition were allegedly beaten up by a group of UNM supporters and last week two men were shot and injured at a rally being given by Irakli Okruashvili, a former Georgian defence minister.

Analysts have said that the election is too close to call.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 299, published on Oct. 7 2016)

Comment: Georgia’s combustible election, writes Kilner

SEPT. 30 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — It was always going to get heated. Georgia’s parliamentary election descended into fighting this week when two opposing MPs traded punches during a live TV debate.

The surprise, perhaps, is that it has taken so long. Reports from Tbilisi have said that this has been one of the better-natured election campaigns in Georgia of recent years.

This parliamentary election campaign is a replay of the 2012 election when the Georgian Dream coalition, the party of billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, unseated the United National Movement party (UNM), the party of the then president Mikheil Saakashvili, in a bitter affair.

Since then the two parties haven’t stopped hurling insults at each other over human rights abuses and corruption. Fury has been building for four years. The policy differences and what each party represents — essentially the Georgian Dream is pro-Russia, pro-Church and pro-Ivanishvili; the UNM pro-West, pro-liberal and pro-Saakashvili — get lost in the fog of the battle and character assassinations that both sides have been dealing in.

Smaller parties generally form alliances with either the Georgian Dream or the UNM and buckle up for the ride.

At the apex of the storm two men are using the election to fight a Machiavellian encounter. Neither is actually standing in the election.

Ivanishvili is Georgia’s richest man. He pulls the strings at the Georgian Dream, deciding who will lead the party, and its policies.

Saakashvili, who dominated Georgian politics between 2003 and 2013, has been forced into exile, wanted by the Georgian prosecutors to stand trial on various accounts of financial wrongdoing. He is now governor of the Odessa region in Ukraine but there is little doubt he wields huge influence over the UNM His Dutch-born wife Sandra Roelofs, is standing as a candidate.

Ivanishvili and Saakashvili hate each other.

There are still eight days to go until the Oct. 8 election. They are going to be eight, tension-filled days with candidates focused on attacking one another, rather than debating the issues of the day — the state of the economy, relations with Russia and the West, civil rights, its rebel states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

After the elections, perhaps there will be time for Georgian politics to reset.

By James Kilner, Editor, The Conway Bulletin

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 298, published on Sept. 30 2016)

Council of Europe criticises Azerbaijan referendum

SEPT. 21 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Venice Commission, a panel of constitutional experts working under the Council of Europe, criticised the upcoming referendum in Azerbaijan, which calls for an extension of presidential terms from five to seven years and other laws which it said would consolidate power in the hands of President Ilham Aliyev.

In a statement, the Venice Commission said that the proposed legal amendments will effectively allow Mr Aliyev to rule indefinitely.

“Many proposed amendments would severely upset the balance of power by giving unprecedented powers to the president,” the lawyers of the Venice Commission said in a statement.

Azerbaijani officials said that the Commission was out of line in judging the proposed amendments which will be voted on in a referendum on Sept. 26.

“The referendum doesn’t expand presidential powers, this is about improving governance,” Shahin Aliyev, head the Presidential Administration’s law unit, told local media.

Mr Aliyev has already tinkered with Azerbaijan’s constitution when he scrapped a limit on presidential terms in 2009.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 297, published on Sept. 23 2016)

UNM fight to shake off ex-Georgian President shadow to win over voters

TBILISI, SEPT. 23 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Next month’s parliamentary election in Georgia marks a new epoch for the United National Movement party (UNM). This is the first national election that it is fighting without its founder, former leader and most recognisable talisman — former Georgian President Mikheil Saakhashvili.

But this may not be a bad thing. Mr Saakashvili is a polarising figure and the mere mention of his name can make Georgians recoil. He lead a peaceful revolution in 2003 that saw the former Soviet foreign minister Eduard Shevardnadze thrown from power as Georgia’s president. Mr Saakashvili was then president from 2004 until 2013. By that time, though, his reputation, and that of the UNM, had come full circle.

Mr Saakashvili had rebranded Georgia with a new flag, a new army ready to fight alongside NATO and a western oriented foreign policy. But he had also picked fights with Russia, and allegedly allowed abuses and beatings in Georgia’s prisons.

From a seemingly omnipotent position, the UNM had first lost a parliamentary election to the upstart Georgian Dream coalition in 2012 and then the presidential election in 2013. Mr Saakashvili has been forced into exile and is now the governor of the Odessa region in Ukraine.

But many voters in Tbilisi, think that he is still influencing the UNM.

Levani, a 27-year-old Tbilisi resident described the UNM as a “disgrace” which kept people under “police control and repression”.

“These days Saakashvili still has enormous influence on the UNM,” she said. “He manages to form the list of candidates for ballots, guide the activists for their provocations and generate low level international pressure to hit the image of the current government and undermine the elections.” Teona, a 25-year-old, agreed.

“They are still associated with Saakashvili and nobody has any question mark about that,” he said. “There are many new people in the UNM whom I might sympathise with but for me still they are affiliated with former regime and I don’t trust them.”

For Giorgi Kandelaki, a UNM MP, these are difficult times. He said that the decision-making progress within the party is now removed from Mr Saakashvili and that he was not trying to influence events from Odessa.

“Mr Saakashvili now is not giving any line to the party to follow. He can give advice and the party takes it on board or not,” he told The Conway Bulletin in an interview.

He did hint though that while Mr Saakashvili’s legacy was positive for the UNM’s core voters, different tactics were needed to attract new voters.

“For the voting base of the UNM, the figure of Saakashvili and his legacy is very positive. As far as concerns undecided voters, we are reaching out to this segment by bringing a lot of new faces into UNM”, he said.

The election is set for Oct. 9. The few opinion polls which have been published put the UNM and the ruling Georgian Dream coalition on level pegging.

ENDS

(News report from Issue No. 297, published on Sept. 23 2016)