FEB. 10 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — People in Turkmenistan prepared to vote in a presidential election set for Feb. 12 that observers said incumbent president Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov would win easily. Human rights and free media activists in Europe and the US have used the election to highlight what they have said is a lack of basic human rights in Turkmenistan.
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(News report from Issue No. 316, published on Feb. 10 2017)
JAN. 18 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — The rebel Georgian region of South Ossetia has set its upcoming presidential election for April 9. The incumbent leader of South Ossetia, which declared independence from Georgia in the early 1990s and was recognised by Russia and a handful of other countries as a separate nation in 2008 after a Russia- Georgia war, is Leonid Tibilov. He has said he will compete in the election to try to win another, and final, five year term. The election is likely to raise tension with Georgia.
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(News report from Issue No. 313, published on Jan. 20 2017)
JAN. 18 2017 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkmenistan’s Central Election Commission said that nine candidates, including incumbent Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, had registered to stand in a presidential election set for Feb. 12. Mr Berdymukhamedov, standing for his third term, is expected to win. Western observers have never judged a Turkmen election to be free or fair.
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(News report from Issue No. 313, published on Jan. 20 2017)
DEC. 15 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Turkmenistan’s Democratic party formally put President Kurbangkuly Berdymukhamedov forward as its candidate in an election set for February. Mr Berdymukhamedov has been in power for a decade. He is likely to easily win the presidential election. No Western vote monitors have ever judged an election in Turkmenistan to be either free or fair.
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(News report from Issue No. 309, published on Dec. 16 2016)f
TASHKENT, DEC. 2 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Even last month, it was clear to Uzbeks who was going to win a presidential election on Dec. 4.
“It is already known who is going to be our new president,” laughed Farkhod, 55, a resident of Samarkand. “But still I am fine with him.”
The “him” is Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Uzbekistan’s PM and acting president since Islam Karimov died on Sept. 2.
And on a tour of Uzbekistan’s two main cities — Tashkent and Samarkand — Mr Mirziyoyev appeared to be a genuinely popular choice to replace Karimov. He’s also had the advantage of looking presidential by leading Karimov’s funeral and hosting various world leaders, such as Russian president Vladimir Putin and Turkish president Recep Erdogan.
For Saidaziz, 21, a student in Tashkent, stability was the key issue. “I am going to vote for Mirziyoyev, as it seems that he is going to continue the line of Islam Karimov,” she said.
Not everybody is as enthusiastic, though. An Uzbek academic who preferred not to be named said that Mr Mirziyoyev had a reputation for being excessively strict.
“As far as I know, Karimov did not choose Mirziyoyev as his successor, as he was aware of the methods the latter prefers to use,” he said in hushed tones between sips of tea in a Tashkent cafe.
Still, for most Uzbeks, Mr Mirziyoyev’s moves to open up the country and to create jobs through major infrastructure projects are welcome.
The economy has been in the doldrums for two years and needs stimulating. Alexander, a 54-year-old plumber in Tashkent said that a change of president would have little impact on ordinary people.
“The elite will decide who becomes president, without our participation, but there won’t be any revolution from ordinary Uzbeks,” he said. “Creating a stable political system, like the one in America is more important task.”
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(News report from Issue No. 307, published on Dec. 2 2016)
NOV. 27 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The OSCE’s election monitoring arm, ODHIR, started its short-term mission in Uzbekistan ahead of the Dec. 4 presidential election. ODHIR’s long-term mission has been in Uzbekistan since the start of November. This is its biggest ever mission to Uzbekistan, where ODHIR has never judged an election to be either free or fair. Islam Karimov died in September after ruling the country for 25 years.
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(News report from Issue No. 307, published on Dec. 2 2016)
NOV. 22 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — Georgian PM Giorgi Kvirikashvili unveiled his new cabinet following the Georgian Dream coalition’s parliamentary election victory last month with only one major change. Dimitri Kumsishvili, the former economy minister, has been promoted to the more important position of finance minister. Mr Kumsishvili is one of a number of cabinet ministers who used to work at Bidzina Ivanizhvili’s Kartu bank. Mr Ivanishvili is the power behind the Georgian coalition. Kakha Kaladze, who under election rules, formerly resigned his ministerial position to fight for re-election in parliament, was reappointed as energy minister.
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(News report from Issue No. 306, published on Nov. 25 2016)
TBILISI, OCT. 30 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Georgian Dream coalition won 48 of the 50 run-offs in majoritarian seats, securing a large enough majority to change Georgia’s constitution without needing support from other parties.
The run-off seats won by Georgian Dream were added to the 67 seats it won in the first round of voting on Oct. 8, giving it control of 115 seats in the 150-seat parliament, smashing their arch rivals the United National Movement party (UNM).
Georgia’s politics are notoriously fractious and while supporters of the Georgian Dream, led by billionaire and former PM Bidzina Ivanishvili, celebrated, election observers were wary of the powers they now wield over the constitution. Ignacio Sanchez Amor, head of the short- term OSCE observer mission, said a constitutional majority brought responsibility.
“The balance of power must be properly observed and rights of minorities must be at the centre of any discussion if there are constitutional changes,” media quoted him as saying.
Alongside the Georgian Dream, the Industrialists party and an independent candidate both won a seat. The UNM, the party of former President Mikheil Saakashvili, finished with the 27 seats, a disappointing result for the party which had talked up the chances of making a comeback and winning back control of parliament. It lost a 2012 parliamentary election to the Georgian Dream.
Dustin Gilbreath, a policy analyst at the Caucasus Research Resource Centre, said the UNM can still recover as a political power but it would be difficult.
“They can continue as a major opposition party, but they need to rebrand. I think they have the potential to stay in Georgian politics in the long run, but they first need to make things works internally”, he said.
Away from the celebrating Georgian Dream supporters, people in Tbilisi, people were worried about the lack of checks on its powers.
Levani, who runs a small grocery store in the city centre, said: “It’s just a disaster. The political stagnation that we witnessed in the last four years is bound to worsen now that no political actor has the power to compel them to act.”
Another Tbilisi resident, Ketino, agreed even though she had voted for the Georgian Dream. “I voted for them to avoid the return of UNM. Nothing good can come out from having too much power,” she said.
Georgian Dream, considered traditional and close to the Orthodox Church, has already said that it wants to change the constitution to enshrine marriage as a union only between a man and a woman.
The Orthodox Church is staunchly against gay rights and many of the Georgian Dreams’ supporters have been pushing to change Georgia’s constitution to reflect this attitude.
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(News report from Issue No. 303, published on Nov. 4 2016)
NOV. 4 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — >> This has been a long election period in Georgia. Is it finally over?
>> I agree, it really has felt like a long process. This is partly because of the long campaign build up and partly because of Georgia’s complicated electoral system. There have been two main election rounds. The first on Oct. 8 was nationwide and included both a proportional representation element and a majoritarian element. At the end of this process, there were 50 seats which still had not elected a majoritarian MP. In these seats the top two candidates went head-to- head in a run-off on Oct. 31, giving the final tally.
>> Right. So to win a majoritarian seat you have to poll more than 50% of the votes. Is that right?
>> Yes, that’s right. A majoritarian seat, as the name suggests, is not a simple first-past-the-post system. The winner needs to poll more than half the votes, that’s why 50 seats needed a run-off.
>> So what is the final result? What is the breakdown?
>> Overall, the Georgian Dream won 115 seats out of the 150-seat parliament. This means they passed the 113-seat hurdle they needed to clear to allow them to change the constitution without relying on support from other parties. Georgian Dream won around 48% of the vote but the majoritarian system handed them a large majority. In 2012 the Georgian Dream won 85 seats, so this election represents a major success for them. By contrast the United National Movement party of Mikheil Saakashvili saw the number of seats it won collapse to 27 from 65. It was a disastrous election for them. Despite their fighting talk in the build up to the vote, voters essentially rejected the UNM and any possibility of a return to mainstream Georgian politics for Mikheil Saakashvili. He is currently the governor of the Odessa region in Ukraine. He’ll probably stay there for some time.
>> Is this it for the UNM, then?
>> That’s unclear but they need to have a major rebrand and to drop Saakashvili from their image. He comes with serious baggage, not least dire relations with Russia and allegations of torture in prisons during his time as president. The problem for the UNM is that he is such a dominating personality it might not be possible to just ditch him. To come back from that would represent quite a feat.
>> And, wasn’t there another party which did reasonably well?
>> Yes, the nationalistic and traditional Alliance of Patriots came up on the inside, unnoticed. It came third with just over 5% of the vote, giving it six seats in parliament. They are to the right of the Georgian Dream in their politics. The Industrialists party and an independent also won a seat each through the majoritarian system.
>> This gets complicated. So what does all this mean for Georgia?
>> Essentially this election confirms the Georgian Dream’s utter dominance. This is a crushing victory. On a policy level, the Georgian Dream has a constitutional majority to changes things as much as they want. They have already ripped up the form book in politics and they may want to do the same with society. They now have the power to do this and they have started already by promoting a change in the constitution that locks down marriage as an act only between man and woman. Georgian Dream has an agenda. They now have a four year window to impact how Georgian society operates. Expect some radical policies to come out of Georgia’s government in these four years.
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(News report from Issue No. 303, published on Nov. 4 2016)
TASHKENT, NOV. 2 2016 (The Conway Bulletin) — The OSCE, Europe’s democracy watchdog, started its first long-term vote observation mission in Uzbekistan ahead of a presidential election on Dec. 4
ODHIR, the OSCE’s vote monitoring unit, has only previously sent short-term missions to Uzbekistan.
In a statement, ODHIR said the government had invited it to send a long-term monitoring team. This is important because it adds more weight to the impression that Uzbekistan is adopting an outward- looking agenda since the death of Islam Karimov in September. He was regarded as difficult to deal with and mistrustful of the West.
ODHIR will send a 15-person team headed by Swedish diplomat Peter Tejler to Tashkent and 20 more people will be dispatched to the regions.
Another 250 observers will be sent to Uzbekistan a few days before the vote on Dec. 4.
Last year, ODHIR sent a short term mission to monitor a presidential election. They reported that the election had lacked competition and contravened the rule of law.
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(News report from Issue No. 303, published on Nov. 4 2016)
