FEB. 23 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — A limited OSCE election monitoring team arrived in Tashkent to observe Uzbekistan’s March 29 presidential election. The OSCE is Europe’s main democracy watchdog. It has monitored five elections in Uzbekistan since 1999, all of which it said lacked genuine competition and debate.
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(News report from Issue No. 220, published on Feb. 25 2015)
FEB. 19 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — After two weeks out of public sight, Uzbek president Islam Karimov resurfaced at an election rally in Kashkadaryo, in the south of the country.
At the rally, broadcast on state television, he vigorously told watchers to work together harmoniously to build up civil society.
The carefully stage-managed appearance was necessary because Mr Karimov had to, effectively, remind his countrymen that he is still in charge and is healthy, despite rumours of the opposite.
Mr Karimov’s disappearances are a talking point because they generally trigger gossip and musings on his health. Now, barely a month before a presidential election that Mr Karimov is expected to win, that speculation was intensified.
He was last seen at the beginning of February accepting the credentials of the new US ambassador to Uzbekistan.
Uzbekistan is, currently, relatively unstable. Mr Karimov is 77-years-old and without an apparent successor.
His daughter, Gulnara, is under house arrest and the security service chiefs appear stronger than ever. It is not even clear how much authority Mr Karimov holds on a day-to-day basis.
And all this instability is worrying for the West, analysts have said. They think that the West would prefer a strong President Karimov to contain any nascent signs of growing Islamic extremism.
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(News report from Issue No. 220, published on Feb. 25 2015)
>>Early vote is a tried and tested strategy>>
FEB. 14 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev looks set to bring forward a presidential election by a year, a move designed to impose stability during a turbulent economic period.
The Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan asked parliament to bring forward a presidential election from 2016 to this spring.
“It is crucial to strengthen the economy and ensure the continuity of the current policy by holding an early election,” the assembly, a constitutional body headed by Mr Nazarbayev, said in a statement.
Since then the country’s biggest political party Nur Otan has voiced its support for an early election.
The dire economic situation has been a constant headache for the Kazakh leadership in the past few months, especially after the plunge in oil prices and the collapse of the Russian rouble.
The Kazakh elite view extending Mr Nazarbayev’s term in office by another five years as a way of imposing stability. Kazakhstan, also, has form with bringing elections forward. It brought an election in 2011 forward. Mr Nazarbayev won with 96% of the votes.
Experts were waiting for an announcement of this sort.
Kazakhstan’s political watchers had often ended conversations with Bulletin correspondents with: “We are waiting for an early election, to guarantee medium-term stability.”
It appears that their predictions have been borne out. It still remains to be seen, though, whether these elections will calm an increasingly turbulent political and economic environment.
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(News report from Issue No. 219, published on Feb. 18 2015)
JAN. 28 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — In Dushanbe, the mayor’s office has banned activists from the opposition Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan from pinning up pre-election posters around the city, media reported (Jan. 28).
The Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan is the only genuine opposition party running in a parliamentary election on March 1. It has popular support but has been increasingly marginalised by the authorities under President Emomali Rakhmon. He has strengthened his control over Tajik society and politics over the past few years, especially hyping up the perceived threat from the more religious elements.
Media said that this ban on electioneering in Tajikistan was new and had not been imposed during previous elections, suggesting another round of restrictions ahead of the election.
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(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)
>>The long-serving leader needs to organise his succession>>
JAN. 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Known as Papa, ironically rather than for any genuine paternal feelings, Uzbek President Islam Karimov has just celebrated his 77th birthday.
He has ruled over Uzbekistan for 26 years — he came to power shortly before the 1991 break-up of the Soviet Union — meaning that half of Uzbekistan’s 30m population have only known him as their leader.
But because of Mr Karimov’s age and rumours over his health, it will soon be time to pick a new leader. Mr Karimov himself has kept his opinions close to himself but candidates from within his administration have emerged as contenders, especially now that his eldest daughter, Gulnara, has been taken out of contention.
Top of this list is probably Rustam Inoyatov, the head of Uzbekistan’s secret intelligence service. He is a long serving official and is powerful but he is also a similar age and vintage to Mr Karimov.
There are others too, including finance minister Rustam Azimov and senate head Ilgizar Sobirov. And these options are what pose a real threat to Uzbekistan’s stability and Mr Krimov’s legacy.
For Mr Karimov, or Papa, this year is going to be busy.
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(News report from Issue No. 217, published on Feb. 4 2015)
JAN. 26 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Students in Uzbekistan are being forced into signing petitions supporting the presidential candidature of Uzbek leader Islam Karimov, the Uzbek arm of the US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported. Mr Karimov has said he is going to stand for another term as president in an election in March.
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(News report from Issue No. 216, published on Jan. 28 2015)
JAN. 23 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The lower house of Uzbekistan’s parliament approved the re-selection of Shavkat Mirziyoyev as an official PM candidate. Mr Mirziyoyev has been PM since 2003 and Uzbek analysts said it was highly likely that he would retain the job after the March presidential election.
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(News report from Issue No. 216, published on Jan. 28 2015)
>>Presidential election set for March 29 in Uzbekistan>>
JAN. 15 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The clue was in the headline. A pro-government news outlet in Uzbekistan, they are all pro-government, ran a story under the headline: “Incumbent President Islam Karimov’s re-election scheduled”.
Nothing, it seems, could be more certain. Mr Karimov has already ruled over Uzbekistan for 25 years, despite constitutional articles that bans one person from holding the post for more than two consecutive terms.
Few people expect any surprises from this campaign and it appears that it suits the United States, Russia and China to keep the status quo. The only two other candidates cleared to run in the election by the Uzbek Central Election Committee are avowed supporters of Mr Karimov.
Importantly, also, there is little mention of Gulnara Karimova, Mr Karimova’s eldest daughter. She had been talked of as a successor to her father but has fallen from grace over the past 18 months or so. She remains under house arrest and many of her associates are in prison.
Uzbekistan’s up and coming presidential election, set for March 29, will be marked by its trademark lack of any real competition.
A seasoned Uzbekistan watcher also said that Uzbeks are apathetic about the prospect of another Karimov term in office.
“People, you know, are apathetic,” he said. “I don’t expect any surprises.”
Mr Karimov has been in power in Uzbekistan since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. It’s inconceivable that he won’t win March’s election again.
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(News report from Issue No. 215, published on Jan. 21 2015)
JAN. 12 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The Uzbek Border Guard Service has beefed up its units along its frontier with Afghanistan, citing intelligence that the Taliban was mustering its forces, although some analysts and Afghan security officials questioned the level of the threat.
Central Asian governments have said that the withdrawal of NATO from Afghanistan will worsen its own border security.
Two weeks ago, Zamir Kabulov, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy for Afghanistan said that the Taliban was planning a wide offensive on Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in April.
Even with the Russian warning and the Uzbek military build-up, the Tajik-language service of the US-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty quoted Afghan general Abdusabur Nusrati refuting reports of the Taliban build-up.
An Uzbek analyst who declined to be named was also sceptical over just how acute the Taliban threat was.
Instead he suggested that the move may be linked to the up and coming presidential election set for March 29. He said that the security issue may play into President Islam Karimov’s image as the tough man of Uzbekistan.
“The country is preparing for presidential elections in only three months,” he said. “To my mind this statements is another indication that he is eyeing another bid as president.”
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(News report from Issue No. 214, published on Jan. 14 2015)
DEC. 17 2014, (The Conway Bulletin) — Uzbekistan held a parliamentary election largely described as being designed to re-enforce the government’s authority. Only four pro-president parties were allowed to contest the election to the 150-seat lower house of parliament. Europe’s main election watchdog, the OSCE, said the election was uncompetitive.
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(News report from Issue No. 213, published on Jan. 7 2015)
