APRIL 27 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev dismissed rumours a devaluation of the tenge was now imminent after he had won another election. “There are no such plans,” he said at a news conference. The tenge has come under enormous pressure to devalue because of a fall in oil prices and a drop in the Russian rouble.
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(News report from Issue No. 229, published on April 29 2015)
APRIL 22 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The latest polling by the International Republican Institute (IRI), makes uneasy reading for the Georgian Dream coalition.
The poll, released in late March, shows support for Georgian Dream dropping to 35%. This is bad news for Georgian Dream, but so is the story told by the other numbers: 14% of likely voters say they support the United National Movement (UNM) of ex-president Saakashvili, 12% say they support nobody, and 11% refused to answer.
If these numbers look familiar to Georgian Dream politicians, it’s because they are disturbingly similar to a poll taken in summer 2012 by IRI’s sister organization, the National Democratic Institute (NDI). That poll, now infamous in Georgian political history, was the last taken before Georgian Dream swept to victory in November 2012, and everybody interpreted it all wrong.
In summer 2012, 37% said they’d vote for the incumbent UNM, while 12% responded Georgian Dream. When Georgian Dream went on to win almost 60% on the day pollsters were flummoxed, and many uncharitably said NDI were in cahoots with the UNM. In fact, that poll revealed much more about Georgian’s voting habits than anyone expected. 22% of respondents said they did not know who to vote for, and 21% refused to answer. Fear, embarrassment and a mistrust of polling organizations had led 43% of Georgians to keep their opinions to themselves. On the election day, this 43% gave their votes to Georgian Dream and surprised everyone by precipitating Georgia’s first peaceful transfer of power.
The same thing is happening in reverse in the latest IRI poll. The UNM scored over 20% in elections in 2013 and 2014, and today’s sluggish economy and devalued lari mean more people now miss the Saakashvili era.
If the 23% of respondents who refused to answer or said they support no one are really hidden UNM voters, it would take UNM support up to 37%, about the same as Georgian Dream.
There is a long way to go before the next parliamentary elections in 2016, but if the polls are to be believed, and if you know how to read them, it is shaping up tobea closer race than many would like to believe.
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(News report from Issue No. 228, published on April 22 2015)
APRIL 5 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakhstan prepared for a presidential election on April 26 that will extend the 26-year rule of Nursultan Nazarbayev, the country’s only post-Soviet leader. He called an election to impose his authority during an economic downturn.
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(News report from Issue No. 228, published on April 22 2015)
APRIL 3 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – The Uzbek sum dropped by 17% on the black market immediately after incumbent president Islam Karimov won a presidential election at the end of last month, data showed.
In Uzbekistan, the black market is vital to monitor as it most accurately tracks the value of the sum against the US dollar. Bank rates are fixed.
Uzmetronom, an independent news source, said the sum is trading at 4,200-4,500 sums per $1 on the black market, double the official rate. The website didn’t give any reasons why the sum had fallen so sharply after the election. Generally, though, the drop in remittance from Russia, the fall in energy prices and a fall in the value of the rouble have pressured the sum’s value.
Prices for basic goods are also rising, which is putting pressure on minimum wage workers.
Elections in both Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan this spring were supposed to bring about stability and reinforce trust. Instead, though, they may be bringing more instability.
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(News report from Issue No. 226, published on April 8 2015)
MARCH 30 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Without any irony, apparently, the authorities in Uzbekistan declared Islam Krimov the winner of a presidential election on Sunday with 90% of the vote.
This is the fourth consecutive presidential election that the 77-year-old Mr Karimov has won since the break up of the Soviet Union in 1991. It’s also the fourth consecutive election Western observers said was unfair. The other candidates, Western observers said, all supported Mr Karimov.
The reality is that the presidential election was a choreographed affair design to impose top-down stability over the country as it grapples with worsening economic conditions across the region.
It was also designed, at least in the short-term, to put an end to any chat of succession or replacing Mr Karimov. Last year his eldest daughter, Gulnara Karimova, who was once widely feared, lost her grip on power and is now under house arrest. Her closest associates are in prison, found guilty of various economic crimes.
The biggest question for Uzbekistan and Central Asia is how the Uzbek elite replace Mr Karimov. For years there has been speculation about his health and although he played a high-profile role in the election he disappeared from view just before campaigning began.
The next few years are vital for sorting out a smooth transition of power.
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(News report from Issue No. 225, published on April 12015)
MARCH 11 2015 (The Bulletin) – Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev declared he would run in a presidential election set for April 25.
His announcement ended speculation generated last week when he appeared to suggest this it was time for change.
Instead, live at a conference held by his Nur Otan party, Mr Nazarbayev declared that he would look to extend his 26-year-long reign over Kazakhstan.
“There is no bigger reward or happiness than to have the trust of my nation,” he said. “This inspires and invigorates me, and this is why I look youngish.”
Mr Nazarbayev is 74-years-old and has run Kazakhstan since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
He called an early presidential election this month after his supporters asked him to underline his authority during an increasingly turbulent economic time.
But succession issues are still at the forefront of Kazakhstan-watchers agenda because only last week Mr Nazarbayev appeared to suggest that he may call it a day.
“I have run Kazakhstan for many years already, I stood at the cradle of its independence, so maybe it was time to ‘change stage’, as they say in a theatre,” he said in televised remarks on March 8.
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(News report from Issue No. 222, published on March 11 2015)
MARCH 2 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – A parliamentary election in Tajikistan has wiped out all opposition representation, delivering a chamber that 100% supports President Emomali Rakhmon.
Western observers said that the election had neither been free nor fair.
“Some contestants provided political alternatives, yet the March 1 parliamentary elections in Tajikistan took place in a restricted political space and failed to provide a level playing field for candidates,” the OSCE, Europe’s main democracy watchdog, said in a statement.
Some media quoted observers saying they had witnessed blatant ballot stuffing too.
Importantly, this is the first time that the opposition Islamic Revival Party has failed to win any seats in parliament. It failed to pass the 5% threshold needed to hold a seat in the 63-person chamber.
According to local media, Mr Rakhmon’s ruling People’s Democratic Party won 57 seats in the election with the Agrarian Party, the Party of Economic Reforms and the Socialist Party splitting the other six seats. All three of the minor parties are linked to Mr Rakhmon.
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(News report from Issue No. 221, published on March 4 2015)
FEB. 25 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) – Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev called an early presidential election for April 26. Pro-Nazarbayev groups have been asking for an election in order to underline his authority as Kazakhstan deals with a tough economic climate.
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(News report from Issue No. 221, published on March 4 2015)
FEB. 21 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — Various political organisations in Kazakhstan threw their support behind the prospect of an early presidential election, virtually ensuring the vote goes ahead in the next couple of months. Kazakh officials floated the idea earlier this month. They want President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s authority underlined.
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(News report from Issue No. 220, published on Feb. 25 2015)
FEB. 22 2015 (The Conway Bulletin) — The opposition Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan accused the government of cracking down on its activities in the build-up to a parliamentary election on March 1. The party’s chairman, Muhiddin Kabiri, told the AFP news agency that the party was facing “total pressure”.
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(News report from Issue No. 220, published on Feb. 25 2015)
